Nomad who has lived in 6 cities and 4 states. Opinions are my own but should probably be yours too. War Damn 🦅
Wisconsin, USA
Joined May 2009
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Interesting Alabama and LSU are both over 50%. I feel like the winner of that game (barring another upset) is in. Loser will have 3 losses. Somebody has to lose. (Can they both lose?)
If 3 losses probably gets you in the 12 team playoffs, who all will get in with 24 teams? – at Maple Bluff, WI
Updated CFP Chances after Week 8, via Kalshi:
93% — Miami
89% — Georgia
85% — Indiana
81% — Ohio St, Notre Dame
61% — Alabama
59% — UCLA
55% — Utah
52% — LSU
51% — Texas
46% — Ole Miss
44% — BYU
36% — Kentucky
27% — New Mexico
25% — Florida
21% — TTU
18% — Tennessee, Wisconsin
Ryan retweeted
His signature legislation as president was ObamaCare. The biggest healthcare bill ever. We were told that he solved this. What is he even talking about?
Ryan retweeted
Obama has become angrier in his post-presidency. Obamacare tripled US healthcare costs, Race to the Top did nothing to improve schools, My Brothers Keeper did nothing to improve black young men. His failed presidency is more apparent every day, and it’s driving him mad.
Basically all of public policy (and economics) can be seen through the lens of two basic lessons: 1) the government has no resources on its own and 2) everything is a tradeoff.
You can be liberal, conservative, or libertarian and get these two basic points wrong. Or, you can be a thoughtful version of any of these (to an extent at least) and get them right. Reasonable people can disagree about what things are worth trading off for other things, but it's unreasonable people who resort to absolutes. There are no absolutes with public policy.
Every act of government policy that promotes or punishes one thing or one behavior has an opportunity cost. No act of government intervention can keep all other things constant. And everything your government touches is a tax on you in some way or another because the government's only resources are what it gets from its citizens.
There are certainly other lessons to be learned too. But these are probably the top two.
Ryan retweeted
These are the same people who lecture Biblical pastors about the separation of church and state and tell them to stay out of politics.
I am a husband, father, and lifelong Texan. I’ve been a Christian since I was 5 and a pastor since I was 19.
And I just proudly voted for James Talarico, Gina Hinojosa, Jon Rosenthal, and Vikki Goodwin.
While it’s true that Ken Paxton is as corrupt and morally bankrupt as they come, Greg Abbott has decimated our public schools, Dan Patrick is bought and paid for by right-wing billionaires, and Bo French wears his racism on his sleeve, I didn’t just vote AGAINST candidates I know will do a bad job. I had the privilege of voting FOR candidates who will do a great job!
I originally connected with Jimmy Talarico many years ago (long before he got famous) and we became friends shortly after. He’s the exact same guy in private as he is in public—kindhearted, whip smart, hardworking, and very serious about following Jesus’ call to care for all people, especially the most vulnerable. That’s who he’s been in ministry, in the Texas Legislature, and I have no doubt that’s who he’ll be as a United States Senator too.
I’ve also gotten to speak with Gina Hinojosa, Jon Rosenthal, and Vikki Goodwin this year. I believe they will fight for two things that are very important to my family and so many people in our church community:
1. An economy where every Texan can afford to have their basic needs met.
2. Fully funded public schools where all children can thrive.
I’m not telling you who to vote for; I’m just telling you who I chose to vote for and why.
We are in a critical moment in both the United States and Texas, so I hope you vote. And if you are a follower of Jesus, I hope you see your vote as a way to prioritize the way of Jesus—sacrificial love of neighbor and justice for those who have been marginalized.
I'll die on the hill that Obama was a bad president and maybe an even worse ex president. Sure, he's the last president to be able to form a coherent sentence and maybe that counts for something. But on matters of substance he gets a bad grade.
National debt almost doubled over his terms. He's the only president to serve 2 full terms entirely as a wartime president. The ACA was (is) a disaster. On a smaller scale, cash for clunkers was disastrous too. He continued a lot of the problematic Bush era post recession policies that prolonged the recession's influences. The age of liberal elitism came while he was president, and I think that's partially responsible for the rise of the current guy. To be sure, these failures aren't exclusively on him, but he's far from innocent here.
You'd think with all of these failures he'd at least do what most presidents before him did (Clinton aside) and more or less exit public life gracefully. Show up at a presidential funeral but otherwise lay low. Take on a humanitarian cause if you must. Instead, he continues to insert himself in the political process and profit from it. If we had a coherent president, Obama could no longer be remembered as the last president who could form a coherent sentence. We could simply remember him as the failure he was. But alas, we don't have that and I'm starting to think we never will. So we continue to get slop like this. – at Maple Bluff, WI
Ryan retweeted
I hate to break it to you but 7-5 with a win over Georgia would objectively be “turning it around.”
Few thoughts here: it feels weird that UCLA was being propped up after being 4-0 all to bad teams and now that they're 7-0 and have a quality win or 2, they aren't moving up much. For once I actually have them higher than the AP does.
I also think Kentucky is overrated. I don't mean to be a hater or unbeliever. I think they're good. But they were drilled by Alabama. They have 1, maybe 2 good wins (both by a point in OT) and otherwise it's been teams they're supposed to beat. They have a tough final 4 games. If they win 3+ of those I'll probably believe they're top 10. (I have them at 16 right now; maybe that's a tad too low but 8 feels too high.)
As for the 2-loss teams, Bama at 10 and Texas at 11 feel too high and Ole Miss at 9 too low. None of that a hill I would die on though and honestly I don't hate how they have it. Might just be me being a hater.
I still don't get how Missouri gets much more benefit of the doubt than other teams. I actually have them reluctantly at 23 as well but if I'm comparing them & Wisconsin I think Wisconsin stacks up a spot or two ahead of Missouri.
Still not totally sold on Boise St. They have no power win. Their best win is probably a Memphis team who needed OT to beat East Carolina. BSU also lost to Oregon who isn't even ranked now. They're in my first couple of teams out of the top 25 right now. – at Maple Bluff, WI
The ball is allowed to hit the ground. The ball is even also allowed to move when it hits the ground. What matters is whether or not the player possessed the ball when the ball hits the ground and maintains possession throughout the process. It's possible for a player to have possession and the ball move a little. It's not going to become stationary when a player hits the ground hard.
This one is close. If it was called incomplete on the field, I'd say it should stay that way. But if it takes 5 minutes of analyzing it under a microscope, it probably isn't indisputable. The ball isn't bouncing, and you never see a double clutch. As far as we can see, the ball is pinned between the arm and chest the entire time. And in the most crucial part of the video the ball is blocked by the LSU player's foot. Even if you want to give 2 to 1 odds that this should be incomplete, that hardly constitutes "indisputable" video evidence.
And of course the play doesn't really matter in terms of the final outcome. But I'm so tired of slowing down games and overturning calls based on vibes. – at Maple Bluff, WI
Grading Auburn game 7:
QB: B
OL: D+
WRs/TEs: B
RBs: C
DL: C
LBs: C
DBs: D
STs: B+
Coaching: C-
Overall: C-
In some ways it was pretty predictable. If you were shocked by this I don't know what to tell you. I was hopeful, but not shocked. LSU at their best is a great team. LSU ready for us was tougher than a Georgia team overlooking us. Still, there's no excuse to get beat that badly. I thought Byrum played okay and STs was fine too. Otherwise, it was a very uninspiring performance, and that's being generous. That said, it doesn't negate knocking off your 2nd biggest rival the week prior. It's okay to still be happy about that, and there's still a lot to play for this season. – at Monona, WI
Grading Auburn, Game 6:
QB: A-
OL: B
WRs/TEs: B+
RBs: B+
DL: A-
LBs: A
DBs: B+
STs: A
Coaching: A
Overall: A-
What a huge win. I don't want to overreact and give everyone an A. There are still things to work on and mistakes were still made, but it was our best overall game we've played not just this season, but in a long time (this whole decade). Byrum Brown had his best game of the year. It's easy to say there's good play calling when plays work, but I do think it was a well called game too. We turned them over, bounced on loose balls, etc. We definitely had a lot more heart than Georgia. And huge props to Alex McPherson, so happy for him. At the least this is a narrative changing win, and it has the potential to be a program changing win.
I always lose spreads in the most bizzare ways. Glad I'm not staking my livelihood on getting those right. Went 3-5-1 vs. the spread this week and a much better 7-2 straight up. This makes me 56-23 (.709) overall straight up and 36-41-2 (.468) overall against the spread. – at Monona, WI
Wek 8 (!!) picks:
Auburn 20 LSU 28 (LSU -7.5)
Texas A&M 13 Alabama 33 (UAt -13.5)
Samford 17 Furman 21 (Samford +8.5)
USC 24 Wisconsin 23 (Wisco +3)
Indiana 21 Michigan 13 (IU -7)
South Carolina 28 Tennessee 27 (UT +2.5)
Texas 27 Ole Miss 24 (Ole Miss +3)
Utah 27 Houston 24 (Houston +6.5)
Oklahoma 27 Miss St. 24 (MSU +4.5)
Depends what else happens. The win over Wisconsin is looking pretty decent right now. North Carolina *might* be a solid win. They also still have SMU who is currently ranked.
If they have 3 ranked wins and 2 close top 10 losses and finish 10-2, they're probably in the top 12 pretty solidly. If those other 3 teams flounder and they look kind of ugly down the stretch, another loss could pull them out. Also depends on what other teams there are in the field and so forth. – at Maple Bluff, WI
Ryan retweeted
As an Auburn fan you can’t get too high or low.
Just keep chipping away. Build it the right way.
Instill culture.
Recruit the players needed to make the plays inside the scheme.
Put players in position to succeed.
Just keep chipping. Scoreboard can’t be the only focus.
Can someone explain the end of regulation on the BYU UCF game to me? Volume was down so I couldn't hear the official "expert" people. – at Maple Bluff, WI
