@SacAppraiser

Appraiser, housing market analyst, graph maker, blogger, speaker, woodworker wannabe, and family man.

 Sacramento, CA
SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com
Joined October 2009
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Beautiful view tonight from the Sunrise Bridge. No filter. Love the American River. I’ve actually been sick all week. This was the first time I even went outside.
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Builders are offering fat concessions to entice buyers, but sales volume has plummeted, so concessions clearly aren't working well.
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Here's a much wider view of new construction between July and September since 2002. Notice how much more new construction we had in the early 2000s as many neighborhoods were being built out? We've not been able to get back to those levels.
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A new visual. These are new listings since 1999 in the Sacramento region. What stands out to you?
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If we want to see the housing market heal, we need more sellers to list their homes. We’ve seen a rise in active supply lately, but that’s mostly about less buyers causing the pile of active listings to increase.
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“Buyer volume is the worst ever.” That’s been the narrative this week when talking about a national pending volume index by NAR. Is it the worst ever in Sacramento? Here are some stats and some thoughts.
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more replies
It’s important to distinguish between buyer demand and listings. Demand is extremely low today, but listings are nothing like 2007. There were about 12,000 more during September 2007. We are seeing some growth lately, and this has softened the market.
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In closing, it’s not the worst buyer volume ever technically. However, when we consider population growth through the decades, this is really bad today.
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Housing supply has been growing, and it has changed the temperature of the housing market. These aren’t historically high levels, but we are far removed from 2021 vibes, and the market is feeling it. I have eleven other counties in case anyone wants to see. Let me know.
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And here's housing supply since 1999. It's good to back up for perspective to recognize we are not at historic highs. Yet, it's also more challenging to see the trend right now if we zoom out too far since it was so extreme in 2007. My advice? Back up and zoom in. Do both.
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It's not that sellers are flooding the market. This is mostly about buyers backing off, which has helped the pile of actives listings grow.
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"We're going to wait until after the election." I had someone say that to me today when thinking about having a private appraisal done. I'm not sure why on their part. Are you encountering any waiting due to politics / elections when it comes to housing decisions?
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Sometimes people say stuff like, "Just wait until after the election is done." There is going to be a massive wave of pent-up demand. Meh. I don't think people en masse are on the sidelines due to politics. This is about affordability problems. Yet, do some wait? Some do.
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Here’s a look at active listings compared to sales in the city of West Sacramento. This is what most areas around the region look like from 1999 onward.
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Many people talk about higher prices driving the housing market right now, but that’s not the story we see when looking at the stats. We’ve seen the most growth under the median sales price. Yet, most price points have grown compared to one year ago.
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And some more stats. We are about 500 sales ahead of one year ago, but I expect that number to diminish for the rest of the year since buyer demand has suffered lately.
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Some friends got me this for my 50th birthday, and I couldn’t be happier. Print from a local artist named Nate Reifke.
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I got another $5 in the mail from this company wanting me to do a survey. Not going to do the survey, but thanks for the $5. This is the second time the survey request has come. They say they will give $20 for filling out the survey.
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This is why prices haven’t crashed. Supply has not built like it did during the Great Financial Crisis. We can’t expect 2007 results with 2026 stats. At the same time, supply has been building lately, and let’s not ignore some growth.
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Let’s zoom in for a closer view. 2.5 months of supply is still minimal, but I think the market gets frothy in Sacramento County at this level. People talk about five months being normal, but that’s not true in this county.
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