Somalia’s National Dialogue Must Begin with a Reckoning with Reality In June, President @HassanSMohamud’s office issued Somalia’s first-ever National Security Threat Assessment, later approved by the Cabinet. It identified eight existential threats to Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, the top three being terrorism, secession, and state fragility. While the assessment correctly named these threats, it ignored their root cause: the absence of ethical, visionary leadership and good governance. Somalia is not weak because of terrorism or secession — it is weak because its leaders prioritize power over state-building. Fragility is not accidental; it is the result of corruption, hoarded power, and institutions that exist in name only. Secession thrives because Mogadishu has failed for three decades to engage Somaliland meaningfully, while Al Shabaab gains ground by exploiting political failures and a state lacking legitimacy. No military operation, foreign deal, or diplomatic maneuver will save Somalia if the proposed presidential dialogue does not confront governance failures at the root of all these issues. For three decades, Somaliland has functioned as a de facto polity, with its own governance, currency, and elections. Ninety percent of its population has never lived under Somali rule, making secession a lived reality, not just a legal debate. External forces are now actively pushing for recognition, and in response, HSM secretly offered the U.S. “operational control” of Gulf of Aden ports to counter these pressures. This alone shows how real the threat of dismemberment has become. Somalis cannot refuse to engage Somaliland while panicking about its departure. At the same time, Somaliland’s leaders must question who truly benefits from breaking Somalia apart. The two occasions when ‘recognition’ was openly discussed came with a poison pill that would have compromised the viability of any future Somaliland state. First, Ethiopia’s recognition-for-sea swap MoU threatened to render Berbera and Djibouti ports —Somaliland’s and Djibouti’s economic lifelines — obsolete. Now, recognition is tied to resettling 200,000 expelled Palestinians in Somaliland, a proposition that is problematic for host of reasons. FGS and FMS leaders cannot escape accountability for failing to tether the fractured country. When Somaliland’s new leadership — led by a former Somali diplomat— took office, FGS should have seized the opportunity for dialogue. Instead, HSM escalated tensions, imposing phantom taxes on Berbera exports and secretly offering Trump control of Somaliland’s ports. Puntland, long skeptical of Mogadishu’s centralization, was ignored until it fully severed ties. Meanwhile, FGS and Jubaland remain at odds, defined by military standoffs. Prez HSM campaigned on “Somalis at peace with one another,” yet he has governed as if Somalia were a unitary state, sidelining even Mogadishu-based opposition and reducing national politics to a standstill. If the president’s dialogue is to have any meaning, it must focus on three immediate priorities: 1.Somaliland must be engaged before recognition becomes irreversible. Offering Trump or any foreign power control over Somaliland ports will not keep the country together — only a serious political settlement can. 2.Governance and accountability must be restored. FGS & FMS leaders have ruled through mandate extensions, rigged elections, and unchecked executive power. Federalism exists in name only, as Mogadishu pressures weaker FMS while outsourcing control of stronger ones to external forces. 3.The war against Al Shabaab has stalled. Terrorists are emboldened while politicians remain fixated on cutting deals. The Somali army is exhausted and unhappy by politicians playing games while they fight & die. Somalia’s political leaders stand at a crossroads: confront the crises with real solutions / hard choices, or keep playing reckless games until the state collapses beneath them.

Wararka sheegaya in ciidamada Xoogga Dalka Soomaaliyeed lagu bartilmaameedsaday oo loo dilay sababo la xiriira colaadaha qabiilka waa arrin aad u xanuun badan. Falkaan waxa u wiiqayaa midnimada, amniga, iyo horumarka qaranka. Waa in caddaaladda la horgeeyo, kuwi geystay falkaas.