Small/Micro-cap Investor. Mostly value with a catalyst or special sits. Full write ups on my blog:
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Joined December 2020
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Yes, it's a UK name (LSE, liquidity OK), but this setup checks all the boxes:
✅Potential upcoming segment sell to unlock re-rating
✅Crown jewel business is probably worth the entire market cap
✅Top-line growth fueled by strong industry tailwinds
Read more here:
treasure-hunting.co/p/the-ch…
Sebastian Krog retweeted
Seb interview link: joinyellowbrick.substack.com…
Sebastian @SebKrog is up 67% YTD and has a 43% CAGR since 2023.
He gave me access to his paid research to see what I could find.
Here are some of his best pitches (and his largest current holding):
“Our favorite holding period is forever” is perhaps one of the most misunderstood quotes. My favorite holding period is also forever, yet I still turned my portfolio over three times in the last three years.
Sebastian Krog retweeted
Sebastian @SebKrog is up 67% YTD and has a 43% CAGR since 2023.
He gave me access to his paid research to see what I could find.
Here are some of his best pitches (and his largest current holding):
Four ways to make money on a "theme"
- Buy the leader and play "passive flows"
- Buy highest "rate of change" company
- Buy the levered company
- Buy the "special sit" where coorperate action pot. unlocks the company as a pure-play on the theme.
Sebastian Krog retweeted
Tidewater Midstream $TWM.TO
Stock Price: CAD 24.15
Market Cap: CAD 543mm
Enterprise Value: CAD 1.12bb
EV/EBITDA (NTM): 5.3x
Given upside: 70%+
The next leg is better realized pricing: refinery contracts signed below market in an oversupplied diesel market are coming up for renewal just as supply tightens and regional construction lifts demand, supporting stronger pricing and crack spreads beyond 2026. I estimate mid-cycle EBITDA at roughly C$220M, putting shares at around 6x EV/EBITDA, and expect above-cycle earnings to persist across both conventional and renewable diesel. Roughly C$400M of the EV is debt, and paying that down could deliver more than 70% equity upside at an unchanged multiple. On top of that, I believe we will see above-cycle earnings for longer (on both sides of the business). The potential SAF project adds substantial optionality (it could ultimately be worth the entire market cap) with an investment decision targeted for Q4 2026. The key risk is that fuel margins weaken before sustained cash generation delivers the deleveraging.
Recently pitched by @SebKrog. Make sure to give him a follow
Sebastian Krog retweeted
Do this. It's a no-brainer.
I Implemented @karpathy's LLM knowledge base for stock research back in April. Six months later, I still use it every day. Here is how I have implemented it for stocks, and why it's a great fit:
treasure-hunting.co/p/how-i-…
I Implemented @karpathy's LLM knowledge base for stock research back in April. Six months later, I still use it every day. Here is how I have implemented it for stocks, and why it's a great fit:
treasure-hunting.co/p/how-i-…
Sebastian Krog retweeted
Yes, it's a UK name (LSE, liquidity OK), but this setup checks all the boxes:
✅Potential upcoming segment sell to unlock re-rating
✅Crown jewel business is probably worth the entire market cap
✅Top-line growth fueled by strong industry tailwinds
Read more here:
treasure-hunting.co/p/the-ch…
Any specific reason $HNRG is getting even more obliterated than its peers?
Sebastian Krog retweeted
Absolute carnage throughout the defense space in public markets.
Nobody wants to own these names into/through mid-terms.
Positioning and sentiment completely bombed-out.
I think this sets up for a very interesting risk/reward after November.
Soon starts the most fruitful time for new idea generation. I find earnings to be the best time to look for new ideas, and even more importantly to re-valuate your watchlist ideas.
My strategy evolves around the fact that investors start to perceive a stock differently than it did in the past. Infecting earnings, a new product, all can be found in earnings releases.
Some feedback after having owned in various sizes and degrees E&Ps this year.
While I’ve made money, you will most likely not see me buy upstream oil companies in bigger sizes in the future.
My issue is that stock picking within E&Ps creates very little alpha. It’s basically a sector/ macro bet.
Therefore my usual framework, of trying to figure out now what the market will see in the coming 3-12 months, barely applies here. Unless you apply that on the oil market, which I find almost impossible.
At the same time, I’ve found mid-and-downstream assets to be much more attractive and suitable to my style.
Refineries are equally depended on macro environment, but the markets are more local. Analyzing the supply and demand in BC, Canada is much easier than doing the same for a global oil market.
Summary: the more local and the harder to track the commodity prices, the more likely it is the market gets something wrong = stock picking matters.
Add to that the rule to buy the low-cost procurer and you have good odds to make money.