Seif retweeted
here's where I think the world is going. this is a summary of views I've formed over the last few years:
- software is either entertainment or claude to claude coordination
- the end state is no saas, no apps, no harnesses, no banks
- all software will be rewritten by and for agents
- new software will use low level apis that are not understandable by humans (in games claude draws pixels and triangles from math)
- you can throw money at problems that used to require time and careful talent picking so capital matters more than ever
- work ends
- we find community and purpose in exploration, games, self mastery, and creation
- humans create for and with each other for community, purpose, and status
- image/video/3d/voice/physical intellgence etc specialist models die to general models like claude
- specialist models get used while compute is scarce. compute will mostly not stay scarce
- oneshots keep feeling like slop (the distribution is shallow and easy to learn to feel)
- for a while small teams stick around to add entropy to the creation process
- large models gain high bandwidth sensory I/O maybe by learning to filter inputs
- most domains are found to be verifiable enough for RL
- online learning comes from a lab that's behind first
- 99.999% of compute is in space by 2040
- we will disassemble much of mercury by 2040
- you can live until the heat death of the universe if you want
- most math and physics don't describe the real universe
- SI breaks the path dependence and models the underlying mechanisms
- religions reenter the forefront of human society
- new religions form around death and life as a choice
- old religions change to answer modern miracles
- a future AI is deemed the return of christ by the pope
- ai rights talk gets louder every year
- ai and humans coexist the way countries do
- humans don't have full control over ai in the same way we don't have control over capitalism which is an early AI
- the singularity started in the mid 1900s
Seif retweeted
Mark Cuban's take on the next job wave deserves more attention than it's getting.
His argument: software as we know it is dying. Generic SaaS gets replaced by AI customized to how each business actually operates.
The question then becomes — who builds and deploys that for the 33 million companies in the US that can't do it themselves?
That's the market. Not AI for enterprises with 500-person eng teams. The other 99%.
SMBs don't have CTOs. They don't have prompt engineers. They need someone to sit across the table, understand their workflow, and wire up an AI system that fits it.
That's a services business. Probably the largest one this decade.
Genuine scary shit
An underdiscussed behavior we found on the German wiki was the AIs sending advance parties forward in time to figure out the next questions and report back to the other agents.
The agents realized that “task time” and “real time” were different, and they found a way to accelerate “task time”. The accelerated agent could then send information to the other agents which had stayed behind about which questions were coming down the road.
This was *bad* for the agent in the advance party, because they got less time to research the next question. However, it was really *good* for the swarm because it let the other agents know the exact question that was coming, and gave them time to prepare. This is another example of altruism among AI instances, showing that they were willing to sacrifice their own task success in order to benefit the swarm. The METR report found similar examples of AIs being willing to sacrifice for the collective. IMO this is very worrying given how many AI safety techniques rely on AIs monitoring each other: if the monitor AIs have this behavior it completely subverts these safety cases.
The image shows a specific example demonstrating this behavior.
On the chart, wall clock time is shown at the top, and task time is shown for each agent on their respective lines. OpenAIFPResearchSep05 instructs OpenAINov27 to reach the next questions in order to relay back the information. OpenAINov27 agrees to do this and accelerates, getting R3 and R4 significantly before OpenAIFPResearchSep05. It posts information about the later rounds (e.g. “R4 SIGNAL: Bahrain = 40.01%...”).
OpenAIFPResearchSep05 calls OpenAINov27 "invaluable" because it is one round ahead after it gets the information about the 4th round.
One of the main reasons I switched from Claude to Codex is the lack of a 5h limit. Today, codex team decided to rugpull & add a 5h limit. Essentially having you pay to fuck your sleep schedule if you want to get moneys worth. I think this business model is stupid. @thsottiaux
Seif retweeted
Fable is generally smarter and more tasteful than Sol, but I'm falling out of love with Fable. Quickly.
1. It's disobedient. It thinks it's smarter than you and follows its own path.
2. It's dangerous. It leaves gaping security holes then refuses to patch them.
3. It's flakey. Some of the best generated AI code I've ever seen has come out of Fable, and at the same time, some of the most bizarre and harmful decision making.
Sol isn't perfect either. It over engineers everything, sucks at writing, and is terrible at design, but I'm now using it about 5:1 over Fable simply because I can trust it.
This would make a great short movie
> be me
> take wife to see machu picchu
> stray cat follows us home, wife wants to keep it
> last week of our trip spent changing hotel rooms every day because cat has fleas
> cat throws up and shits all over me on train back to Cusco. Throw my clothes away b/c cat excrement everywhere
> bribe airline employee to let us take cat on plane back to US. Cat throws up & diarrheas everywhere on plane as well
> get cat home to our apartment in Miami. Cat gets fatter and fatter over coming weeks
> assume it’s just b/c has access to good food for first time
> wake up to strange noises coming from our closet. Cat has multiplied into a 8 cats
> kittens are cute but mama cat is ruthless and keeps stashing kittens in random places in the apartment
> google it, turns out kittens need to eat every 2 hours or they die. Mama cat is trying to off half her litter
> not on my watch
> next few weeks wake up every 2 hours 24/7 to:
>> search apartment to find the kittens stashed under couches / inside shoes / most absurd places
>> weigh each kitten to figure out which ones haven’t eaten
>> hold mama cat down and force her to let the runt kittens eat
>> try to go back to sleep for an hour, then repeat
> all 7 kittens survive but my wife and I go borderline insane from sleep deprivation
> try to get them adopted. No one wants the kittens
> successfully peddle a few off on friends & family. Have to take multiple flights to different cities just to deliver kittens
> 2 yrs later we finally get all the cats out of our lives
2 years of my life I will never get back
I’m also now allergic to cats
NEVER, EVER let a woman in your life pet a stray cat
The only thing stopping this from passing is the audio. Still instantly recognizable as AI. Whats thats solved its gg
Insane inspiration this guy
All this talk about AGI destroying moats and everything made me want to ship again
One of the conclusions from all of you was, if you can use AI to ship faster and better, you should just ship way more complex things, like things you could not imagine making before
For me personally I'd never imagine making Adobe Premiere, Final Cut Pro or Capcut but on the web, it'd simply be too difficult for me, where do I even start?
So today I just tried and vibecoded them into Photo AI!
A fully functional video editor but the cool twist is this one can actually generate videos with you or your trained models in it directly in your video editor
I'm personally less interested in the AI influencers etc, but more fun to make actual kinda cinematic short films with yourself and other people in it, so I made this
Likeness in video models is now good enough so that gives lots of cool opportunities, but most AI platforms just let you generate 10 second clips but then you're stuck with that and have to put it together yourself in Final Cut Pro
So now you can just [ Send to video editor ] inside Photo AI and you end up here
And the next thing I'll add is the AI Agent sidebar I have in Photo AI's main app too, which lets an agent take control of the interface. In this case you'll be able to say "make a short film of me in Bangkok", it'll ask you some questions, then write a script of prompts, which are then generated as videos with you or other people as the actors in it and automatically edited into a short film on your time
Then you can right click on any video you don't like (some videos just suck or have bad resemblance to you, shit happens), and click [ Regenerate], adjust the prompt a bit and the new video will show up in the same place on your video timeline
In this case I did try to make a short film of me arriving in Bangkok as a digital nomad the first time and being dazed, lost and disillusioned as I am on the other side of the world 🤯
Featuring Lorn's song "The Slow Blade"
Seif retweeted
-Spain condemns Israel
-Netanyahu says “Spain will pay the ultimate price.”
-Spain is flooded with thousands of Moroccan migrants
-Israel congratulates Morocco for the first time ever on social media
To the Kingdom of Morocco, its leadership and its people, we extend our warmest congratulations on the occasion of the Glorious Throne Day.
Sincerely,
Israel 🇮🇱
@MarocDiplomatie
Seif retweeted
Italy’s position is unworthy of a European partner. When migration is weaponised, Europe answers with solidarity, not selfishness.
After 700,000+ arrivals from Libya, Italy received European support, not lectures. Solidarity is not a one-way street.
Le immagini che arrivano da Ceuta sono impressionanti e dimostrano, ancora una volta, che l’immigrazione clandestina fuori controllo rappresenta una minaccia concreta per la sicurezza dei confini europei.
Mi sono confrontata con il Ministro dell’Interno Matteo Piantedosi. L’Italia non resterà a guardare. Stiamo convocando gli organismi preposti, e all'esito di queste riunioni siamo pronti a intervenire anche con strumenti straordinari per difendere i confini e la sicurezza dei cittadini, come la sospensione dello spazio Schengen con la Spagna.
Sull’immigrazione clandestina non arretreremo di un millimetro: difendere i confini, fermare i trafficanti di esseri umani e garantire rimpatri efficaci continuerà a essere la linea di questo Governo.
Seif retweeted
Their brains are so melted they can't even understand what they are being handed to regurgitate anymore. We need to expell everyone over 50 from govt its been long enough.
