NFL analytics, betting insights, fantasy football analysis, game picks & props using advanced predictive models & data from Warren Sharp l betting on @novig
Joined August 2019
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Detroit games average a league-high 62.4 combined points.
Jordan Love averages 9.6 yards per attempt on play action. The Lions allow 8.7 Y/A against it, and a top-8 QB every week this season.
Love threw 4 TDs in Detroit last year.
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Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert and Jayden Daniels are all on bye.
Bills, Jaguars, Chargers and Commanders: four teams off, and a lot of lineups with holes in them.
Rich Hribar ranks every QB, RB, WR and TE for Week 7:
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Lamar Jackson is expected back Sunday against Cincinnati
In 2024, these teams played 41-38 and 35-34
Lamar scored 30+ fantasy points in both
Last season, playing hurt, he finished QB27 and QB22 against them
Which Lamar shows up?
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Geno Smith throws short
Only 24.4% of his passes go 10+ yards downfield, 2nd-lowest in the NFL
Miami has let passers complete 87 of 97 throws under 10 yards, the highest rate in the league
Is Geno your Week 7 streamer?
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After Mike Evans left Monday, the 49ers gained 2 yards on their last three drives
He is expected to sit Sunday
The counter: blitz Brock Purdy and he averages a league-high 10.0 yards per attempt
Atlanta just blitzed at its highest rates of the season
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J.J. McCarthy threw for 243 yards in one quarter last week
Sunday is his first Giants start, against a Texans defense that is 3rd in sacks
The Giants give up 4.8 sacks plus turnovers per game, 29th
Breakout or reality check?
sharpfootballanalysis.com/fa…
Bryce Young has thrown for 281+ yards in every game this season. He did it four times in his career before 2026.
Now he gets a Bucs defense that has not let a QB finish higher than QB12. Burrow, Dak and Love included.
Real, or about to get checked?
sharpfootballanalysis.com/fa…
Is Daniel Jones playing for his job Sunday?
The Colts fired GM Chris Ballard this week
Next: a Vikings defense that blitzes a league-high 66.5% of the time and has allowed 1 TD pass since Week 1
Jones: 5.2 yards per attempt when blitzed
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Browns v. Titans has a case for the ugliest game of the week
Cleveland: outscored 44-6 in the first quarter
Tennessee: outscored 82-23 in the first half
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The Saints have not scored first in a game this season
Only the Dolphins share that
New Orleans has also allowed a league-high 26 red zone trips
Pittsburgh has allowed 10, the fewest in the NFL
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Drake Maye vs. the Bears blitz may decide TNF
Kept clean: 73.3% completions, 9.0 yards per attempt
Pressured: 47.8%, 6.3 Y/A
Chicago blitzes 38.1% of the time, and 3 Patriots linemen got hurt Sunday
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The best waiver add of Week 7 is sitting in 97% of ESPN leagues.
Omar Cooper Jr. came off IR straight into the Jets' WR2 role: a route on 84.8% of dropbacks, 7 targets, 103 yards and a touchdown.
Who are you spending FAAB on this week?
All of our Week 7 waiver wire pickups, from Jonah Coleman to Konata Mumpfield, plus deep cuts under 5% rostered:
sharpfootballanalysis.com/fa…
The 5-0 Chiefs are underdogs this week...
Kansas City opens +2.5 at Seattle, a 3-3 team
The 6-0 49ers are only 4.5-point favorites at 2-4 Atlanta
The 2-4 Texans are laying 9.5 to the 3-2-1 Giants
Which Week 7 line looks off to you?
Every Week 7 spread, total and moneyline:
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Week 6 by the numbers:
Falcons: 12 runs all game, fewest in NFL
Cowboys: worst early down run game of any 1st half
Penalties: 97 delay of game, old record 75
Steelers: 1st and goal to 4th and goal in 15 seconds
Full takeaways 🎥⬇
youtu.be/wimWl0n53qM
Sharp Football Analysis retweeted
49ers splits with Mike Evans tonight
WOW 👀
Mike Evans ON field:
+0.57 EPA/play, 9.0 yds/play
Mike Evans OFF field:
-0.14 EPA/play, 4.4 yds/play
Passes only:
ON field:
+0.58 EPA/att, 50% success, 11.6 YPA
OFF field:
-0.54 EPA/att, 29% success, 6.8 YPA
The 49ers are 6-0.
Since 1999, 34 teams have started 6-0. 32 made the playoffs. 16 made the Super Bowl.
The catch: the three unbeaten teams have played opponents who are a combined 32-60-1. The two winless teams' opponents are 44-18.
Contenders, or soft schedules?
Sharp Football Analysis retweeted
Week 6 Takeaways
📺: youtube.com/watch?v=wimWl0n5…
- Falcons: Stefanski BLEW THE GAME
- Schottenheimer didn't have the Cowboys ready
- Record Setting Penalty data
-> most offensive penalties in recorded history 👀
- Steelers, Giants, Eagles & more
- MNF best bets w @curtisharsch
