Advisor || Variational OG || Early calls. Real edges
Joined January 2025
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It’s a pleasure to be a Variational OG! The merch is so beautiful and high quality guys
I remember joining @variational_io back in May 2025, while my first post was in July 2025 when the total traded volume reached $1B
It’s great to see an old post of mine again. Not sure why I said 5/6 months to TGE and 500k trading volume, but I guess that was a young Sipa trying to understand better the game and find his place in this beautiful world 😂
It’s been such a great journey so far! I hope you’ve enjoyed it as well and I appreciate all the support received so far ❤️
Thanks to the whole Vari team for this amazing surprise!
Job’s not finished
I don't know you, but fading @variational_io would not be a good idea. It already has significant traction and is still in private beta.
Additionally, 50% of the rewards will go to the community!
My personal recommendations:
1⃣Find a code. (I'll make a giveaway as soon as I get one, otherwise you can keep an eye on their Discord)
2⃣Start generating volume.
I suggest generating at least $500,000 in volume while still in private beta, as early contributors typically receive better rewards. In my opinion, we still have at least 5–6 months before the TGE.
We need to wait for:
- Public access
- Points campaign
- Vault
It's definitely early, but I believe this project has great potential.
People are currently talking about @Lighter_xyz, but in a few months, they’ll be talking about Variational.
Sipa retweeted
A month ago I said that I wouldn't be surprised to see @TxFlow_L1 metrics 2-3x higher in a month and I didnt miss
$200M daily volume (1.7x)
$85M OI (2.6x)
$43M TVL (2.2x)
You're fading while:
1. Most of the CT is fudding (bullish; metrics > noise)
2. Biggest retroactive points drop ever by a perp dex
3. Self funded, community-owned (but you dont believe that)
Sipa keeps stacking points. See you at 1B+
Here's a one month update:
> $120M daily volume
> $33M OI (2x)
> $20M TVL (2x)
People want to be early to the next big thing. I don’t have a crystal ball, but I can def tell you to place a trade on @TxFlow_L1 first and judge for yourself afterward
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the metrics 2–3x again next month
If you’re betting against TxFlow, you’re betting against an already successful team and I don’t want to do that
I really like projects like @get_truenorth that want to ship a great product first and grow their user base organically without launching a points program
Some teams prefer to launch a points program at an early stage, but this eventually dilutes points holders and milks early users, because you know it takes 1+ years to build a good product, which means 1+ years of points
By not launching a points program too soon, you can take your time and reward early users later on. Retroactive points are not just a moat, they have a clear goal and are useful both for teams (more time to build) and for users (better rewards, lower cost per point)
TN keeps building, loyal users keep using and paying to try/test the platform, and eventually they'll launch a points program when the product is ready for mass adoption. This incentivizes new users while heavily rewarding early users who have been using it for months
Early calls. Real hedges
Here's what we've been up to at @get_truenorth over the last 2 months.
A lot shipped. Here's the recap 🧵
To all the traders on Solana:
@ImperialPerps will win perps on Solana and we’ve been extremely early once again
- Best liquidity (PropAMM; similar to RFQ. MMs will be able to start market making soon)
- Best execution cost (deepest liquidity + 1bps taker. Your trades never leave Solana)
- Large tail of assets
Early calls. Real hedges
🤝 Paid partnership
What are the current round-trip fees (open + close) on tokenless perp DEXs on @solana?
Imperial - 0.02%
Bulk Trade - 0.07%
Phoenix - 0.07%
GMTrade - 0.08%
Pacifica - 0.08%
Fermi - 0.12%
I think it's time for bro (@toly) to start shilling someone else a bit more often instead of Phoenix
And if you haven't caught the hint yet, I'm talking about @ImperialPerps
Sipa retweeted
You're not late to join. Points program just started. Use the code TXSIPA (5% fee discount + community campaigns)
If you plan to generate good volume, DM me, I might have something for you
app.txflow.com/r/TXSIPA
🤝 Paid partnership
A month ago I said that I wouldn't be surprised to see @TxFlow_L1 metrics 2-3x higher in a month and I didnt miss
$200M daily volume (1.7x)
$85M OI (2.6x)
$43M TVL (2.2x)
You're fading while:
1. Most of the CT is fudding (bullish; metrics > noise)
2. Biggest retroactive points drop ever by a perp dex
3. Self funded, community-owned (but you dont believe that)
Sipa keeps stacking points. See you at 1B+
Here's a one month update:
> $120M daily volume
> $33M OI (2x)
> $20M TVL (2x)
People want to be early to the next big thing. I don’t have a crystal ball, but I can def tell you to place a trade on @TxFlow_L1 first and judge for yourself afterward
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the metrics 2–3x again next month
If you’re betting against TxFlow, you’re betting against an already successful team and I don’t want to do that
You're not late to join. Points program just started. Use the code TXSIPA (5% fee discount + community campaigns)
If you plan to generate good volume, DM me, I might have something for you
app.txflow.com/r/TXSIPA
🤝 Paid partnership
If what I read about the tokenomics is true, then it'll be funny to watch
I’ll just say that having an airdrop vesting in 2026 means that you’re not confident that your product can perform well in the long run. Furthermore having vesting after 2y of points program means that you don’t care about the people who supported you from the early days. It’s as simple as it is, and you're just preparing yourself to exit liquidity
Especially in the perp dex space where you have dexs dropping 25/32%. There are reasons these perp dexs can drop so much, and Im not asking @hibachi_xyz to do the same, but the vesting is really ridiculous if true
I’ve joined Hibachi in June 2025 and always liked the vision of combining privacy+perp dex narrative. Then came the investment from Coinbase and Arc, and the potential of bringing FX spot on Arc. With a vesting, I wouldn’t care anymore
Hopefully Im wrong and what I read about allocations and vesting is not true (or an outdated version as the team says lmao), otherwise certain teams can’t really save themselves
Grid will be rewarded with more grid
Hibachi points end on November 8.
Hibachi started with a mission to bring privacy, speed, and performance to perpetual trading. $10B in volume later, that mission has grown into something much larger.
FX moves $10T a day on T+2 settlement, behind credit lines and a concentrated banking system that limits access to liquidity. Stablecoins settled $46T last year, near-instantly, around the clock. Those two systems are converging, but the exchange infrastructure to connect them doesn’t yet exist.
That is the venue Hibachi is building: the institutional-grade exchange for stablecoin-native FX, spanning perpetuals and spot.
To everyone who traded, referred, and stress-tested the product from the first day: thank you. Your activity built the foundation this next phase stands on.
Note: Rewards may be associated with social or trading activity after points have ended.
I have no problem saying that @metricxyz is one of those projects Im putting most of my expectations on (next to TrueNorth as a non-perp dex)
They’re trying to fix a real problem which is liquidity for RWAs on-chain. Lack of liquidity is an issue for large sizes and causes problems like bad quotes. The challenge is there, but the metrics are already showing how wild the adoption has been so far for such an early stage protocol
The goal is to flip Uniswap and the edge is now while TVL is sitting at $15m
It’s not mandatory to use a ref code, but if you want a points boost, joining with my link will guarantee you a confirmed boost:
app.metric.xyz/r/sipa
.@metricxyz added $5.1B in stablecoin DEX volume. That's 71% of the top 10 venues' growth.
Via @tokenterminal.
Great point tbh
That said, @variational_io didn’t invent RFQ, but they clearly accelerated adoption of the model. We’re now seeing multiple venues (Extended, Lighter, etc.) roll out multi-dealer RFQ setups, yet none of them are matching Variational’s traction
I also see a strong bull case for Vari builder codes. They’re still under the radar, but especially with OLP, they could create a different kind of flywheel
Feels generational
single dealer or not, RFQ perp DEX UX has a good PMF because it abstracts away price improvements of PFOF and the nuances of trading large size into a single quote
if you don't like the prices, you can start your own multi-dealer RFQ platform and take all of @variational_io users
good luck convincing users to use your platform because you can save a couple basis points of slippage on a quote that moves every milisecond
I'd like to address one more misunderstanding about @variational_io
Trading against a single dealer counterparty, and having OLP as the only MM on the platform, doesn't mean it's trading against you. To understand this, it is important to see how OLP actually works
Example (1)
User A goes long 10 BTC. OLP takes the other side (short 10 BTC) and then hedges that exposure externally by buying 10 BTC on another venue, in order to neutralize the directional risk
OLP earns money from the spread (the difference between the price it quotes and the price it can hedge at). It does not rely on directional profits
When the hedge is not 1:1 and some directional risk remains, it is usually for one of these reasons:
1. Cost and efficiency: Constantly hedging every small imbalance in real time is expensive due to fees and slippage
2. Portfolio-level hedging: Instead of hedging each asset one for one, OLP looks at the overall book (including correlations between assets) and hedges the net risk more efficiently
3. Temporary imbalance: Flow is often one-sided for a short time. OLP may carry a small temporary directional exposure while waiting for the other side to arrive, then reduce or remove the hedge
Example (2)
User A goes long 10 BTC. At the same time, User B goes short 8 BTC. OLP is the counterparty to both trades, so its net exposure is only long 2 BTC. It only needs to hedge that small residual amount externally (or wait for more opposing flow to offset it)
In all cases, the goal remains to stay as close to delta neutral as possible while capturing the spread
"We are profitable every day" but we don't rip off customers by being the sole MM on @variational_io
The fuck you don't
When a user requests to open a position on Omni, OLP generates a real time quote via its engine
OLP then aggregates live prices and liquidity from external venues (CEXs, DEXs, OTC,etc…), adjusts the quote for trade size and a competitive spread is applied
Once the user accepts the quote, the user takes the requested side and OLP takes the opposite side in the settlement pool
OLP then hedges the position on external venues using its own capital, capturing the spread between the quoted price and the hedge execution price
That’s why Variational’s RFQ model can allow them to have zero fees while earning from the spread and offering one of the best execution costs at the same time
Sipa retweeted
Agree on the main difference and that the “until proven otherwise” could catch a lot of us if it happens. A couple of things:
- OLP has risk limits (per user, per market, platform-wide) and sits in the same isolated pools as users, so one bad trade or market can’t easily blow up the whole book. To still hurt the book you’d generally need a sufficiently violent and correlated move across multiple markets, but ofc you’re right that the risk profile is different from Hyperliquid, or any other CLOB
- As more people trade, opposite positions often cancel each other out. That means OLP needs to hedge less externally, which improves the economics (increasing net revenue) and reduces hedging risk over time
Ofc there’s always a chance of a major event, especially nowadays, but that’s part of the game they’re playing ig
Rn 10/10 is still the biggest real stress test we’ve seen, and it handled it better than most places. This is also where the bet on the founders and their background comes in, whether they can successfully build and run a model like that
PS: Appreciate that you’re bringing a new thesis and pov that can help everyone better understand the R/R behind the Variational trade
I want to add a few additional points that people either tend to forget or are not aware of:
1. @variational_io was one of the few dexs, if not the only one, not to suffer a major ADL event during 10/10. This was a year ago
2. OLP is a profitable and working business, until proven otherwise
3. In a recent podcast, Lucas clearly said that Variational has several years of runway
Facts > Noise
Finally some fud. I was starting to be concerned
If you really knew what @variational_io is and what you're talking about, it was never meant to be a perp dex
First onchain brokerage. Kind regards
When a user requests to open a position on Omni, OLP generates a real time quote via its engine
OLP then aggregates live prices and liquidity from external venues (CEXs, DEXs, OTC,etc…), adjusts the quote for trade size and a competitive spread is applied
Once the user accepts the quote, the user takes the requested side and OLP takes the opposite side in the settlement pool
OLP then hedges the position on external venues using its own capital, capturing the spread between the quoted price and the hedge execution price
That’s why Variational’s RFQ model can allow them to have zero fees while earning from the spread and offering one of the best execution costs at the same time
Being early and loud about something is never the easiest choice, but it is always the bravest one
Being early is riskier. Being loud means people will be mad at you if it goes wrong
Life is a game of volume. It’s not about being right every time, it’s about making decisions based on your own thesis, letting your wins outperform your losses, and building the character you are becoming today, along with your future destiny
We’ve been early on so many things: Variational (June 2025); Ink (Day 1, since testnet); TrueNorth (March 2026); TxFlow (June 2026); Imperial (July 2026); Metric (the most recent one, I've been watching it since stealth)
I reckon there have been some bad calls, like Hotstuff (it could have been a solid all-in DeFi platform), 01 (mainly because Cited was backing the project back then), and Hibachi (?; I’ve always liked the idea of combining privacy with the perp dex narrative, and the vision of bringing FX spot on-chain via an institutional layer)
At the same time, we’ve saved money on a lot of projects that have either shut down, are not performing well, or that I simply preferred to watch from the sidelines: EdgeX, Ostium, Pacifica, AFX, Dango, RiseX, Bulk, Arcus, Perpl, JTX, Phoenix, and the list goes on
Today marks another milestone for @ImperialPerps, what I believe should become the first venue on Solana. And to everyone who followed the signal early (it’s still early), congrats
I could have easily gotten a deal with @dango and made money from my refs
I haven’t done it because it wouldn’t have respected my values, and furthermore, I know that the trust of those who follow me is more important than the money I can make by shilling a project
Warned you about Dreamcash. Warned you about Cascade. Warned you about Ethereal
Skipped EdgeX, Ostium, Pacifica, AFX, Dango, and more
Currently skipping RiseX, Bulk, Arcus, Perpl, JTX, Phoenix
Im not perfect, I’d be lying if I said so. There will be some calls of mine that might not age well, but I won’t hide behind them. I’ll take responsibility and learn from them
The best thing I’m doing here is offering the best value to the people who decided to support me from Day 1 of this journey
We’re still on Day 1. The best is yet to come
- Sipa
The first agentic brokerage is starting to take form
@MrButlerhl also said that, in a recent call he had with @get_truenorth, their plan is to move towards a builder rebate model, where exchanges share part of their trading fees with builders instead of users paying extra bps to the frontend
I love teams that keep building and don’t use a points program to attract more users in the early stages. Product is the marketing, and only the ones who can see the vision join early and before the masses
Everyone will join at the time they deserve. Your hedge is now: app.truenorth.xyz/ref/SIPA
s/o @ttrafalggar for the article
So @ycombinator is telling you to be bullish on agentic trading and you’re not?
The raise of the first agentic brokerage will be studied
