DeFi & Perp DEX researcher | Farming strategies, airdrops & onchain data | Creator of the RISEx Farming Analyzer ↓
Joined February 2024
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One month later, I checked the same 4 early-stage Perp DEXs again.
September made the differences much clearer.
TL;DR:
- RISEx → Consistent Growth
- PERPL → Losing Momentum
- TxFlow → Strong Growth
-Arcus → Explosive Growth
Not just volume.
I looked at OI, monthly volume, fees where available, product development and what comes next.
Here’s what changed ↓
> RISEx - @risextrade
Still the most consistent of the four for me.
- OI: $26.87M → $35.39M (+31.7%)
- September Volume: $2.99B (-2.4%)
Volume was basically flat, but OI kept growing.
That’s an interesting combination: more capital staying open without needing significantly more turnover.
Ignite farming also continued throughout September.
No explosive month. No collapse either.
Just consistent growth while the product keeps moving forward.
I’m still farming it and it remains one of my main positions among these four.
> PERPL- @perpltrade
The weakest evolution of the four.
- OI: $1.50M → $1.55M (+3.3%)
- September Volume: $1.97B (-0.6%)
The headline volume looks stable, but that doesn't tell the whole story.
A large part of September's activity was concentrated in just a few spike days, followed by a significant slowdown.
That leaves the same question for me:
How much activity will remain once incentives disappear?
For now, this is still the one I'm prioritizing the least.
> TxFlow - @TxFlow_L1
Probably the most interesting improvement this month.
- OI: $11.62M → $24.99M (+115%)
- September Volume: $2.47B (+19.6%)
September fees: ~$841K
OI more than doubled while volume also increased.
And now comes the next catalyst:
- TxFlow Points officially start October 12.
That should finally give us more information about how activity is rewarded and potentially more clarity around the broader incentive/token thesis.
I've been positioning before the official points season.
October should tell us whether that was worth it.
> Arcus - @arcus_xyz
The explosive growth story of September.
- OI: $12.28M → $31.97M (+160.3%)
- September Volume: $3.69B (+91.5%)
September fees: ~$638K
And there's an important detail here:
Most of this growth happened before Season 1 Points existed.
Arcus expanded its RWA offering, pTokens and Robinhood distribution during September.
Now the dynamic changes.
Season 0 retroactive activity has been ranked, and as of October 1:
- Season 1 is live.
So October should be particularly interesting.
We'll find out whether Arcus can maintain this growth once points become part of the equation.
My September read:
RISEx → Consistent Growth
PERPL → Losing Momentum
TxFlow → Strong Growth
Arcus → Explosive Growth
But October could change the picture again.
TxFlow Points → October 12
Arcus Season 1 → Live now
Both are entering their incentive phase with significantly more OI than they had one month ago.
I'll check the same four again next month.
Let's see who can actually keep growing once incentives become part of the game.
🤖 Made with AI
What if @predictdotfun farmers end up getting rewarded before Polymarket farmers?
For months, @Polymarket has attracted most of the attention around prediction market airdrops.
But meanwhile, Predict .fun might be getting ready to steal the spotlight.
And the pre-market pricing is getting interesting.
$PREDICT is now trading on several perp venues:
– Binance Futures
– Bybit
– Aster
– TxFlow
With indicative prices around $1.40–$1.80, that would imply a $1.4B–$1.8B FDV, assuming a 1B token supply.
That's a serious valuation for a prediction market protocol.
And here's where the farming angle gets interesting.
Community estimates suggest roughly $0.15–$0.35 per Predict Point, depending on the token allocation, total points and launch valuation.
None of that is official. Pre-market prices can be very misleading, and there's still uncertainty around actual airdrop allocations.
> My personal experience?
I farmed Predict fun, but nowhere near as much as Polymarket.
Like many farmers, I spent most of my time where everyone else was looking.
Now I'm wondering whether the smaller opportunity might actually deliver rewards sooner.
Predict fun also has an interesting position within the BNB ecosystem, somewhat reminiscent of how Aster emerged in the Perp DEX narrative.
That doesn't guarantee success, of course.
Sometimes the best farming opportunity isn't the one everyone spends the most time on.
It's the one that rewards users before the crowd expects it.
Did you farm Predict fun, or were you focused entirely on Polymarket?
Why am I earning so few points on @Lighter_xyz?
If you've been farming Lighter on RH, generating decent volume but receiving fewer points than expected, your free Standard account might be the reason.
There's been some controversy around this lately, but the rules haven't actually changed.
Let me explain.
1. The problem with Standard accounts (0 fees)
Standard accounts can earn points, but there's a catch:
→ Standard vs Standard: No points
→ Standard vs Plus/Premium: Eligible for points
The problem? You can't see what type of account is on the other side of your trade.
So you might be generating plenty of volume without all of it counting toward your points.
2. Market orders vs. limit orders
Both can earn points, but how you execute matters.
→ Limit orders: If another Standard account fills your order, you won't earn points.
→ Market orders: You're more likely to trade against Premium market makers providing liquidity.
This could improve your chances of earning points, but you'll have to pay the spread.
And there's no guarantee that every market order qualifies.
3. Why are points getting harder to earn?
My theory is that competition has increased, with more farmers potentially using free Standard accounts to avoid fees.
I even experienced my own account being switched to Premium unexpectedly for a few weeks.
So perhaps the mix of accounts you're trading against has changed, even though the rules haven't.
That's my interpretation, not something Lighter has confirmed.
4. What about the Robinhood boosts?
Even if you're using the Robinhood Wallet 2× boost or the 2.5× hedging boost, they only apply to eligible trading activity.
If you're on Standard and your trade matches another Standard account, those boosts won't generate points for that trade.
> My take
If you're farming with a free Standard account, don't focus only on trading volume.
Market orders might help you reach more eligible counterparties, but the spread can increase your real farming costs.
Plus and Premium accounts have an eligibility advantage, although they charge trading fees.
The goal isn't just to generate more volume. It's to generate more volume that actually counts toward points.
Source: Lighter team clarification on Discord.
Why does buying BTC at $80K feel harder than buying it at $60K?
I've been thinking about this a lot lately.
We spent so much time with BTC between $60K and $70K. I bought some, but looking back, it never feels like enough.
Now BTC is hovering around $80K, and sentiment on CT somehow feels worse than when we were at $60K.
And here's the psychological trap:
– I want BTC to dip so my buy orders get filled.
– But when it dips, I wonder if I'm still buying too high.
– And if it pumps, I regret not buying more earlier.
Sound familiar?
My plan hasn't changed.
I've placed a ladder of BTC buy orders from ~$81K down to $75K.
If they all fill, great. If they don't, I already have exposure.
Personally, I think we've seen the bottom, although I could obviously be wrong.
And over the long term, I sometimes wonder how much I'll care whether I bought at $75K, $80K or $85K.
With altcoins, I'm more selective. Right now, I'm mainly accumulating LIT and HYPE through liquidity pools.
The hardest part of accumulating isn't always finding a good price. It's accepting that you'll never know the perfect one.
Are you buying these dips, or still waiting for lower prices?
My best week farming Lighter points
Also my most expensive one
Week 10 of @Lighter_xyz × Robinhood Chain is over, and the results are pretty surprising
→ 93.69 points (vs ~10 last week)
→ $1.2M trading volume
→ Top market: SPY
→ Bearish estimated value: $552
Almost 9× more points than last week, with a relatively similar trading volume.
Sounds amazing, right?
Well, not exactly.
What changed this week?
I've been optimizing my strategy by trading SPY and QQQ spreads between Lighter and RISEx, keeping delta-neutral exposure
I also traded GOOGLE quite actively this week, as I suspected some markets might be receiving additional point incentives
But the biggest difference came from something I definitely didn't plan
One of my larger positions got liquidated
During a period of volatility, my Lighter position was liquidated. I immediately closed the opposite position on RISEx.
The liquidation ended up costing me approximately $600
And based on this week's distribution, it seems that liquidation activity contributed significantly to my points
Now let's talk about valuation
My dashboard uses an intentionally pessimistic scenario:
→ $3 LIT price
→ Continued points inflation until year-end
→ ~$6 per point
→ 93.69 points ≈ $562
Personally, I think this scenario might be too pessimistic
But I prefer using conservative assumptions to understand whether my farming is actually profitable
And under this scenario, the estimated value of all my points doesn't even cover the liquidation cost, let alone other trading expenses
Of course, a more favorable valuation could change the outcome
But that's the problem: those points don't have a guaranteed dollar value
> My takeaway
I'm still very bullish on Lighter and $LIT.
But that doesn't mean every farming week is profitable
This was my best week in points, and also my most expensive
I'll keep optimizing my SPY/QQQ strategy, improving execution and trying to avoid unnecessary liquidations
Never farm liquidations intentionally
Taking a guaranteed loss in exchange for uncertain future rewards isn't a strategy I want to rely on
Not everything you see on X is profit
Sometimes the most impressive farming results come with a cost that nobody shows
And speaking of efficiency, Lighter has now officially clarified how its points boosts work
Here's how to make the most of them without taking unnecessary risks ↓
Lighter has published official explanations of its points program, including hedge boosts, boosted markets and referral rewards.
Here's what you need to know to farm more efficiently.
1. Hedge boost: up to 2.5×
If you're hedging positions between @Lighter_xyz Core and Robinhood Chain, the direction matters.
According to Lighter's official documentation:
→ Crypto: Short Core / Long RH
→ RWA (Commodities, ETFs): Short Core / Long RH
→ RWA (Pre-IPO, Equities): Long Core / Short RH
The 2.5× hedge boost applies to eligible weekly points, not live points.
And Lighter can update the eligible directions weekly.
2. Some markets generate extra points
Lighter has confirmed that certain markets receive additional boosts.
One particularly interesting example is the earnings boost.
If an RWA market is linked to a company reporting earnings during the weekly points calculation period, that market receives a weekly boost.
That's one reason I was actively trading GOOGLE this week.
Pre-IPO markets and newly listed assets may also receive boosts.
3. Other boosts worth knowing
→ Robinhood Wallet mobile trading: up to 2× volume-based boost
→ Referred traders: +10% weekly points
→ Referrers: 10% of their referrals' live and weekly points
Different boosts have different conditions. Don't assume every multiplier stacks.
4. How I'm approaching it
I'm focusing on:
→ SPY/QQQ spread arbitrage
→ Eligible hedged positions
→ Markets with earnings-related boosts
→ Tracking points against actual trading costs
The goal isn't simply to maximize points.
It's to maximize points per dollar spent while controlling risk.
If you're not farming yet, you can join through my referral:
robinhoodchain.lighter.xyz/?…
And you can track your weekly points, volume and estimated valuations with my dashboard:
lighter-weekly.vercel.app
More points are great. But profitable farming depends on what they cost you.
Another improvement from @risextrade
Scale Orders are now live
After introducing TWAP orders, RISEx now lets traders place an entire ladder of limit orders with a single click
No more manually placing orders at different price levels
And this is something I've been noticing for a while:
RISEx isn't just improving its metric
The product itself keeps getting better
- More advanced order types
- A cleaner, more intuitive interface
- A much better mobile trading experience
- Continuous improvements to execution and usability
These might seem like small updates, but for those of us trading on RISEx regularly, they make a real difference
There's still plenty of room to improve, but I like seeing the team focus on the actual trading experience, not just points and incentives
Metrics attract attention. A good product is what keeps traders around
And from a farming perspective, I still think we're early
We haven't even completed one-third of the expected farming campaign, and based on my own weekly results, RISE Points can still be accumulated at a relatively low cost.
That doesn't mean farming is free or that future rewards are guaranteed.
But I believe the current R:R remains attractive, especially before competition potentially increases.
If you haven't started farming RISEx yet, you can use my referral to get a 12.5% points boost:
rise.trade/en/invite/smart
We're still early on @TxFlow_L1 Points.
But I don't think farming will stay this easy forever.
I think many people are overlooking what the new Builder Code announcement could mean.
Until now, third-party development was limited by API access. Now, TxFlow is opening the door to:
- Trading bots
- Automated strategies
- Third-party apps and frontends
For TxFlow, this is great news.
More integrations could bring more users, more volume and more activity to the protocol.
For Points farmers, however, there's another side.
We're only one week into Season 1, and retroactive Points haven't even been distributed yet.
I believe we're still very early.
But as more users arrive and more trading infrastructure gets built, competition for Points could increase significantly.
If the weekly Points pool remains fixed, more eligible activity means a smaller share for each participant.
And that's my main takeaway:
The opportunity is still early, but today's farming efficiency may not last.
I'm not saying bots are bad or that they'll necessarily receive Points.
Quite the opposite: this is a positive development for TxFlow.
I just think farmers should understand that what's good for protocol growth can also make farming more competitive.
And if you haven't started farming TxFlow yet, there's currently an exclusive campaign that could help reduce your trading fees.
Details in the first reply.
🤖 Made with AI
Builder Code lets you earn fees from the trading activity your app brings to TxFlow.
Frontends, bots, and wallet integrations can set fees within user-approved caps, with one builder code across perps and outcome markets.
Apply for a builder slot: txflow.com/apply
Here are the details:
xitter.cf/SmartDropFarmer/status…
People are debating whether @TxFlow_L1 Points are worth $1 or $4.
I'm more interested in lowering my cost basis.
One week into TxFlow Points, and I'm already seeing many people anchoring to very bullish valuations.
Personally, I'm taking the opposite approach.
We still have very limited information.
While Season 1 is expected to end no later than Q1 2027, very few people seem to be pricing in the possibility of additional seasons and future point emissions.
I've seen estimates ranging from $1 to $4 per point.
Could that happen? Maybe.
But for now, I'd rather stay conservative.
My cost this week was around $0.20 per point in trading fees.
Even under a relatively conservative $1 valuation, that's roughly 5x the fees paid to earn those points, before accounting for PnL, funding and other costs.
The key point is that I don't need ultra-bullish valuations for the math to make sense.
That's why I'm happy to keep farming at current levels, especially when there are opportunities to reduce costs.
Speaking of which, TxFlow has shared an exclusive campaign for the my community:
- $5,000 in Perps taker volume
- $30 in Fee Credits
- Complete the volume within 24 hours of joining
- First 100 qualified users only
- Campaign ends October 25
If you're already planning to farm Season 1 Points, this could help reduce your effective trading costs.
Campaign link in the first reply.
LIT was fighting to hold $3 just a few days ago.
Now it's approaching $4.
And today's Q3 Investor Call may have given the recovery another push.
Several developments have been building momentum, but some of the updates from the call could be particularly important for Lighter's future.
Here's a simple breakdown. 👇
1. @Lighter_xyz wants to enter the US market
Lighter plans to apply for US regulatory licenses in November.
In simple terms, they want permission to operate a regulated exchange for perpetual futures and options in the US.
More technically, they're pursuing CFTC registrations as a DCM (exchange) and DCO (clearing organization).
They've already had preliminary discussions with regulators.
Approval isn't guaranteed, but if successful, this could open the door to a much larger market.
2. Robinhood could become much bigger
Right now, Lighter is integrated with Robinhood Wallet.
But the ambition goes beyond that.
With the necessary regulatory approvals, Lighter hopes to expand into other parts of Robinhood's US offering and potentially integrate with more brokers and financial apps.
Imagine users accessing Lighter's trading infrastructure through applications they already use.
That's the opportunity.
3. Lighter is already generating real business
Q3 figures shared during the call:
→ $137.67B trading volume
→ $8.5M revenue
→ Over $1.6B open interest (active trading positions)
→ Over 1M Lighter Core accounts
→ 109.8M LIT staked
Lighter has also reportedly bought back more than 18M LIT in total.
This isn't just a roadmap. There's already significant activity behind it.
4. More products could arrive soon
→ Simple binary options already live
→ Traditional options (calls and puts) targeted by year-end
→ Lighter EVM mainnet also targeted by year-end
→ More wallet and exchange integrations potentially coming in Q4
The idea is to offer more financial products while allowing other applications to build on Lighter's infrastructure.
These are development targets, not guaranteed deadlines.
5. More clarity on token unlocks
The first monthly unlock for team and investor tokens is reportedly scheduled for January 29, 2027, followed by three years of gradual releases.
They also mentioned potential strategic buyers interested in purchasing large LIT allocations directly from existing investors.
That could help facilitate large transactions without relying entirely on public-market purchases, although future selling pressure remains a risk.
My take
What interests me most isn't just the move from $3 toward $4.
It's the possibility of Lighter reaching more users through Robinhood and other brokers, while expanding into options and a broader DeFi ecosystem.
If they execute, that could mean more trading activity, more revenue and potentially stronger demand for $LIT.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed.
But the long-term opportunity is becoming easier to understand.
Huge thanks to @0xyeongeun for sharing such detailed notes from the Investor Call.
Why I believe $LIT could eventually reach $10.
Not next week. Not because of a chart.
I'm talking about what @Lighter_xyz could become as this bull market matures.
At $10, with a 1B token supply, we're talking about a $10B FDV.
Ambitious? Absolutely.
But I wanted to build a bullish scenario around actual business growth, not just speculation.
1. Lighter already generates real revenue
According to DefiLlama, Lighter currently generates approximately:
→ $5M monthly protocol revenue
→ $60M annualized revenue
→ $66B monthly perp volume
Unlike many projects promising future utility, Lighter already has an operating business.
The question is how much bigger that business can become.
2. Options could be a major opportunity
Lighter has started exploring simpler prediction-style markets, but the opportunity I'm interested in is a full options trading platform.
Traditional options are an enormous market, and crypto options already generate tens of billions in monthly notional volume on centralized exchanges.
On-chain, @DeriveXYZ processes approximately $4B in monthly options notional, according to DefiLlama.
What if Lighter eventually became a market leader?
My bullish scenario:
→ $33B monthly options volume
→ 1.5 bps effective trading fee
→ ~$59M annual gross trading fees
That's over 8× Derive's current volume.
A very ambitious target, but it illustrates the opportunity if on-chain options adoption grows significantly.
Unlike Lighter's zero-fee standard perp trading, options could become a meaningful fee-generating business.
The final options fee structure hasn't been announced, so these are assumptions, not official projections.
3. Lighter EVM could accelerate everything
This is the part I'm most excited about.
Lighter EVM could allow lending protocols, automated vaults and structured products to interact directly with Lighter Core.
More applications could mean:
→ More users and collateral
→ More trading strategies
→ Higher perp and options volume
→ More revenue opportunities
HyperEVM has already demonstrated how a trading ecosystem can attract substantial DeFi capital.
But TVL isn't revenue.
The real opportunity is getting applications to generate additional activity through Lighter's trading infrastructure.
4. Traditional finance is opening another door
LIT now has two exchange-traded products:
→ Bitwise Lighter Staking ETP (BLIT)
→ 21Shares Lighter ETP (LIHT)
Both provide access to LIT through traditional brokerage infrastructure.
Their combined assets are still small, around $4M.
But they create another potential source of token demand as adoption grows.
They don't directly generate protocol trading revenue.
And I think institutional adoption could become one of the most important pieces of this thesis.
Today, institutional exposure to LIT through these products is still very limited.
But that also leaves considerable room for growth if Lighter gains recognition among traditional investors and attracts more capital through regulated investment products.
5. So how do I get to $10?
Here's my hypothetical bullish scenario for a more mature Lighter:
→ $180M annual revenue from perps and existing markets
→ $60M from a successful options business
→ $60M in additional trading revenue driven by EVM applications
Total: $300M annual protocol revenue.
This would require roughly 5× today's annualized revenue.
If the market valued that business at approximately 33× annual revenue:
$300M × 33.3 = ~$10B FDV
With 1B LIT total supply:
$10B FDV = $10 per LIT.
That's the mathematical path.
It assumes substantial market-share gains, strong monetization and a premium valuation multiple. None is guaranteed.
6. And what about buybacks?
Lighter already has a buyback and burn mechanism.
If revenue grows significantly, that could translate into greater token demand.
However, future unlocks, competition and the exact treatment of new revenue streams remain important risks.
> My conclusion
$10 is a very optimistic scenario that would require Lighter to become a leader in both perps and options, alongside significant EVM growth and institutional adoption.
It's a long-term thesis, not a short-term price prediction.
And today we have Lighter's Q3 Investor Call at 1:30 PM ET
We might get some important announcements that move $LIT.
Up or down? We'll see.
People are debating whether @TxFlow_L1 Points are worth $1 or $4.
I'm more interested in lowering my cost basis.
One week into TxFlow Points, and I'm already seeing many people anchoring to very bullish valuations.
Personally, I'm taking the opposite approach.
We still have very limited information.
While Season 1 is expected to end no later than Q1 2027, very few people seem to be pricing in the possibility of additional seasons and future point emissions.
I've seen estimates ranging from $1 to $4 per point.
Could that happen? Maybe.
But for now, I'd rather stay conservative.
My cost this week was around $0.20 per point in trading fees.
Even under a relatively conservative $1 valuation, that's roughly 5x the fees paid to earn those points, before accounting for PnL, funding and other costs.
The key point is that I don't need ultra-bullish valuations for the math to make sense.
That's why I'm happy to keep farming at current levels, especially when there are opportunities to reduce costs.
Speaking of which, TxFlow has shared an exclusive campaign for the my community:
- $5,000 in Perps taker volume
- $30 in Fee Credits
- Complete the volume within 24 hours of joining
- First 100 qualified users only
- Campaign ends October 25
If you're already planning to farm Season 1 Points, this could help reduce your effective trading costs.
Campaign link in the first reply.
Smart Drop Community Exclusive- TxFlow
$30 in Fee Credits for the first 100 eligible users who complete $5,000 in Perps taker volume within 24 hours of joining.
Join here:
app.txflow.com/campaign/firs…
Want to estimate how much your Points could be worth at TGE?
I've built a dashboard where you can test different FDV scenarios, future seasons and potential dilution.
Points Dashboard:
txflow-dashboard.vercel.app/
Why I believe $LIT could eventually reach $10.
Not next week. Not because of a chart.
I'm talking about what @Lighter_xyz could become as this bull market matures.
At $10, with a 1B token supply, we're talking about a $10B FDV.
Ambitious? Absolutely.
But I wanted to build a bullish scenario around actual business growth, not just speculation.
1. Lighter already generates real revenue
According to DefiLlama, Lighter currently generates approximately:
→ $5M monthly protocol revenue
→ $60M annualized revenue
→ $66B monthly perp volume
Unlike many projects promising future utility, Lighter already has an operating business.
The question is how much bigger that business can become.
2. Options could be a major opportunity
Lighter has started exploring simpler prediction-style markets, but the opportunity I'm interested in is a full options trading platform.
Traditional options are an enormous market, and crypto options already generate tens of billions in monthly notional volume on centralized exchanges.
On-chain, @DeriveXYZ processes approximately $4B in monthly options notional, according to DefiLlama.
What if Lighter eventually became a market leader?
My bullish scenario:
→ $33B monthly options volume
→ 1.5 bps effective trading fee
→ ~$59M annual gross trading fees
That's over 8× Derive's current volume.
A very ambitious target, but it illustrates the opportunity if on-chain options adoption grows significantly.
Unlike Lighter's zero-fee standard perp trading, options could become a meaningful fee-generating business.
The final options fee structure hasn't been announced, so these are assumptions, not official projections.
3. Lighter EVM could accelerate everything
This is the part I'm most excited about.
Lighter EVM could allow lending protocols, automated vaults and structured products to interact directly with Lighter Core.
More applications could mean:
→ More users and collateral
→ More trading strategies
→ Higher perp and options volume
→ More revenue opportunities
HyperEVM has already demonstrated how a trading ecosystem can attract substantial DeFi capital.
But TVL isn't revenue.
The real opportunity is getting applications to generate additional activity through Lighter's trading infrastructure.
4. Traditional finance is opening another door
LIT now has two exchange-traded products:
→ Bitwise Lighter Staking ETP (BLIT)
→ 21Shares Lighter ETP (LIHT)
Both provide access to LIT through traditional brokerage infrastructure.
Their combined assets are still small, around $4M.
But they create another potential source of token demand as adoption grows.
They don't directly generate protocol trading revenue.
And I think institutional adoption could become one of the most important pieces of this thesis.
Today, institutional exposure to LIT through these products is still very limited.
But that also leaves considerable room for growth if Lighter gains recognition among traditional investors and attracts more capital through regulated investment products.
5. So how do I get to $10?
Here's my hypothetical bullish scenario for a more mature Lighter:
→ $180M annual revenue from perps and existing markets
→ $60M from a successful options business
→ $60M in additional trading revenue driven by EVM applications
Total: $300M annual protocol revenue.
This would require roughly 5× today's annualized revenue.
If the market valued that business at approximately 33× annual revenue:
$300M × 33.3 = ~$10B FDV
With 1B LIT total supply:
$10B FDV = $10 per LIT.
That's the mathematical path.
It assumes substantial market-share gains, strong monetization and a premium valuation multiple. None is guaranteed.
6. And what about buybacks?
Lighter already has a buyback and burn mechanism.
If revenue grows significantly, that could translate into greater token demand.
However, future unlocks, competition and the exact treatment of new revenue streams remain important risks.
> My conclusion
$10 is a very optimistic scenario that would require Lighter to become a leader in both perps and options, alongside significant EVM growth and institutional adoption.
It's a long-term thesis, not a short-term price prediction.
And today we have Lighter's Q3 Investor Call at 1:30 PM ET
We might get some important announcements that move $LIT.
Up or down? We'll see.
What if @Lighter_xyz is building something much bigger than a Perp DEX?
- Options
- RWA markets
- Lighter EVM
A programmable financial ecosystem.
I've been connecting the dots behind Lighter's latest developments, and I think the long-term vision is becoming much clearer.
Here's what they're building, what already exists, and what still needs to happen.
1. The foundation is already there
Lighter started by competing in one of DeFi's most demanding sectors: perpetual futures
But its infrastructure now extends beyond traditional crypto perps:
→ Crypto and RWA perpetual markets
→ Pre-IPO price exposure
→ Unified Trading Accounts
→ Multi-Asset Margin
→ Public Pools and perpRFQ
→ A separate trading instance integrated with Robinhood Wallet
These aren't all future promises. They're part of the infrastructure Lighter has already developed.
The next step is making that infrastructure useful to an entire ecosystem.
2. Lighter EVM: Turning an exchange into infrastructure
On October 16, Lighter announced that its EVM devnet was live
Built with Axiom and OpenVM, Lighter EVM is designed to work alongside Lighter Core
And here's the interesting part.
Smart contracts can interact with the trading engine itself.
They can read market data, balances and positions, submit orders and move assets between environments.
Imagine what developers could eventually build:
→ Lending markets using trading positions
→ Automated delta-neutral vaults
→ Structured investment products
→ Trading strategies executed through smart contracts
→ DeFi applications built around Core liquidity
These are possible use cases, not confirmed live products.
The idea is simple: instead of every application building its own trading infrastructure, developers could build on top of Lighter's.
The EVM is currently in devnet. Mainnet remains TBA.
3. Options: expanding the financial product suite
Lighter has also officially teased options trading
And the founder has discussed trading perps and options from the same balance sheet
Why does that matter?
Because capital efficiency is one of the biggest advantages a unified derivatives platform could offer.
A trader could potentially manage different exposures without constantly moving collateral between isolated platforms.
More instruments. More strategies. More reasons to keep capital within the ecosystem.
Options aren't live yet, and their final specifications remain unknown.
But strategically, the direction makes sense.
4. Hyperliquid has already shown what an exchange ecosystem can become
HyperEVM is an interesting reference.
According to our analysis of DefiLlama data, its native DeFi TVL reached approximately $1.6B at its August 2025 peak.
Lending, liquid staking, DEXs and other applications developed around the trading ecosystem.
Lighter could pursue a similar expansion, although its architecture and execution model are different.
And there's an important lesson here:
TVL isn't revenue. An ecosystem only creates direct economic value for the underlying protocol when activity reaches mechanisms that capture that value.
5. Putting the pieces together
I see Lighter's potential evolution like this:
Perps → Existing trading engine and revenue.
RWA and Pre-IPO → Broader exposure beyond crypto.
Options → More derivatives products and potential trading fees.
Lighter EVM → Third-party applications interacting with Core.
Unified margin → Potentially more efficient use of capital.
The ambition isn't simply to win more perp market share.
It's to become a programmable foundation for on-chain financial markets.
> My take
I like the direction, especially because Lighter already has an operating trading business behind the vision.
But the next stage is about execution.
Options need liquidity. EVM needs developers. Applications need real users.
If those pieces come together, Lighter could become substantially more valuable as a business.
And the next important date is already on the calendar.
> Inversor Call:
On Wednesday, October 21, Lighter will hold its Q3 Investor Call at 1:30 PM ET.
I'm particularly interested in whether we get more clarity on the options rollout, EVM mainnet, ecosystem development and the economic implications for $LIT.
Those updates aren't guaranteed, but the call could help us better understand what's coming next.
Because ultimately, the question isn't just what Lighter wants to build.
It's how much value that expansion can actually create and how much of it could flow back to $LIT.
I'll revisit that question after the investor call, with the latest information and some numbers behind the thesis.
TxFlow Season 1 - My first Points are here!
575 Points earned. Top 7.36% of participants.
Now that the first weekly distribution is here, we can start estimating what these Points might be worth at TGE.
I've updated my @TxFlow_L1 Points Dashboard, but there's something important about my valuation thesis:
I don't expect TGE anytime soon, and I wouldn't assume Season 1 will be the only season.
Even if Season 1 ends by Q1 2027, I think additional seasons are a realistic possibility.
That's why I've included optional dilution scenarios:
- Season 1: 100% (baseline)
- Season 2: 75% of Season 1's Points
- Season 3: 50% of Season 1's Points
These are purely my assumptions, NOT confirmed TxFlow plans.
The idea is simple: what happens to the potential value of our Points if future seasons increase the total supply?
You can adjust these percentages and explore your own scenarios.
What's next?
I'm also planning a wallet-based analyzer to calculate trading fees, Points earned and cost per Point.
For that, I'm waiting for the necessary API access.
Get the dashboard in the First comment
Any feedback is welcome!
RISEx Week 13: Back below $1 per point!
Another week farming @risextrade , but this time with an interesting twist.
My results:
→ 350.3 RISE Points
→ $1.70M trading volume
→ $0.85 per point
→ 6,356 accounts rewarded
Here's what changed.
Without my SPY/QQQ arbitrage strategy, my cost would have been $1.24/point.
By combining farming with arbitrage, I reduced my effective cost to $0.85/point (-31%).
I've been sharing some of these SPY/QQQ opportunities over the past few days.
Keep reading. I'll explain how I'm doing it in the next post.
But there's another important number: 6,356 accounts.
For weeks, RISEx was distributing points to fewer than 6,000 accounts.
Competition is starting to grow.
And that's exactly why I've been pushing harder while the protocol is still relatively early.
> My strategy hasn't changed:
- Accumulate points while the R remains attractive.
- Accept higher trading fees when justified.
- Find ways to offset those costs.
- Keep my effective $/point under control.
RISEx still has a long farming runway, but I don't expect competition to stay this low forever.
Of course, arbitrage carries risks, and these results aren't guaranteed to repeat.
350 points at $0.85 beats 350 points at $1.24.
For now, I'll keep pushing.
Keep Reading to know how I'm using SPY/QQQ arbitrage to make RISEx farming more capital-efficient.
How I'm using SPY & QQQ arbitrage to reduce my RISEx farming costs.
Last week I earned 350.3 RISE Points at $0.85/point.
Without arbitrage, that cost would've been $1.24.
That's a 31% reduction in my effective farming cost.
Here's the strategy I've been testing.
1/ The opportunity
SPY and QQQ trade on both RISEx and Lighter, but their prices don't always move perfectly together.
Sometimes one exchange trades noticeably higher than the other.
That's where the opportunity appears.
My approach is simple:
→ SHORT the more expensive market
→ LONG the cheaper market
The direction isn't fixed. It depends entirely on where the price divergence appears.
I'm not trying to predict whether SPY or QQQ will rise or fall.
I'm trying to profit when the price difference between the two exchanges narrows.
2/ Timing matters
Look at the 7-day charts attached.
I'm monitoring the spread between RISEx and Lighter, using:
- Blue: Parity
- Purple: Historical median
- Orange: 75th percentile (P75)
- Yellow: Latest spread
When the spread moves toward the upper end of its historical range, I look for opportunities to SHORT the more expensive venue and LONG the cheaper one.
If the divergence moves toward the opposite extreme, the trade direction reverses.
The goal is to open near an extreme and close when the spread returns toward its median, or potentially reaches the opposite side of its historical range.
The entry matters just as much as the exit.
3/ Arbitrage isn't free money
Opening and closing positions involves:
→ Trading fees
→ Bid/ask spreads and slippage
→ Funding costs
→ Execution and liquidation risks
And the spread can always widen further instead of converging.
That's why I don't enter every divergence.
The potential convergence needs to justify the total execution costs and risks.
4/ What's next?
I'm building my own monitoring and execution tool to automate this strategy.
For now, everything runs locally, and I'm still testing it.
The idea is to identify attractive divergences, evaluate execution costs, and eventually automate entries and exits.
It's not ready for public use, and historical convergence doesn't guarantee future profits.
But the early results are encouraging.
My objective is simple:
Keep farming RISEx while making every point as capital-efficient as possible.
If you want to explore both platforms:
RISEx (+12.5% points boost):
rise.trade/en/invite/smart
Lighter:
robinhoodchain.lighter.xyz/?…
I'll keep sharing the results as I refine the system.
🤖 Made with AI
This can't be real 😂
XRP finally joins X, and its logo looks suspiciously familiar to RISEx...
And now RISEx launches a 20% points boost on XRP trading.
Coincidence? I think not.
2026: The Great Crypto Cleanup.
And honestly, I think it was long overdue.
For years, we've seen hundreds of protocols promising to revolutionize crypto.
Millions raised from VCs, huge valuations, airdrops, points campaigns, and endless marketing.
> The problem?
Many were building products nobody actually needed.
And now the bear market is bringing all the skeletons out of the closet.
Just look at the projects shutting down, winding down, or abandoning their original products in 2026:
> L2s & Infrastructure
- Sophon : ~$70M raised (including node sales)
- Blast : $20M
- Abstract : >$11M raised by Igloo
- Botanix: ~$8.5M+
- Moonbeam / Moonriver: migrating to Base
-Polygon zkEVM: network shut down
> DeFi & Trading
- Everclear / Connext : ~$27M reported
- Router Protocol : ~$4.1M
- Satori Finance: ~$10M
- Cascade (ex-Perennial) : $15M
- Dango: $3.6M, shut down in under 4 months
- StandX : TGE cancelled
- Hotstuff: trading discontinued
- Loopring: DEX discontinued
- Tally & Parsec: operations winding down
And these are just some examples.
Raising millions doesn't mean you've built something people actually need.
During bull markets, incentives can attract thousands of users, massive TVL, and impressive trading volumes.
But when the airdrops end and the attention moves elsewhere, reality catches up.
And I believe perp DEXs could be next.
Right now, we're seeing an explosion of new exchanges, points programmes, and airdrop expectations.
I use several of them myself, and I'm bullish on decentralized derivatives.
But let's be realistic.
There are simply too many perp DEXs competing for the same traders.
When incentives disappear, many will struggle to retain users. And I wouldn't be surprised if, a few years from now, we're looking at another long list of failed exchanges.
Only those offering real value, better execution, deep liquidity, and sustainable economics will survive.
And that's perfectly fine.
Crypto doesn't need hundreds of protocols doing exactly the same thing.
It needs products people actually want to use, even when there are no rewards.
Less hype. More utility.
This isn't the death of crypto.
It's a much needed cleanup.
And I doubt we're anywhere near the end of it.
🤖 Made with AI
What if @Lighter_xyz is building something much bigger than a Perp DEX?
- Options
- RWA markets
- Lighter EVM
A programmable financial ecosystem.
I've been connecting the dots behind Lighter's latest developments, and I think the long-term vision is becoming much clearer.
Here's what they're building, what already exists, and what still needs to happen.
1. The foundation is already there
Lighter started by competing in one of DeFi's most demanding sectors: perpetual futures
But its infrastructure now extends beyond traditional crypto perps:
→ Crypto and RWA perpetual markets
→ Pre-IPO price exposure
→ Unified Trading Accounts
→ Multi-Asset Margin
→ Public Pools and perpRFQ
→ A separate trading instance integrated with Robinhood Wallet
These aren't all future promises. They're part of the infrastructure Lighter has already developed.
The next step is making that infrastructure useful to an entire ecosystem.
2. Lighter EVM: Turning an exchange into infrastructure
On October 16, Lighter announced that its EVM devnet was live
Built with Axiom and OpenVM, Lighter EVM is designed to work alongside Lighter Core
And here's the interesting part.
Smart contracts can interact with the trading engine itself.
They can read market data, balances and positions, submit orders and move assets between environments.
Imagine what developers could eventually build:
→ Lending markets using trading positions
→ Automated delta-neutral vaults
→ Structured investment products
→ Trading strategies executed through smart contracts
→ DeFi applications built around Core liquidity
These are possible use cases, not confirmed live products.
The idea is simple: instead of every application building its own trading infrastructure, developers could build on top of Lighter's.
The EVM is currently in devnet. Mainnet remains TBA.
3. Options: expanding the financial product suite
Lighter has also officially teased options trading
And the founder has discussed trading perps and options from the same balance sheet
Why does that matter?
Because capital efficiency is one of the biggest advantages a unified derivatives platform could offer.
A trader could potentially manage different exposures without constantly moving collateral between isolated platforms.
More instruments. More strategies. More reasons to keep capital within the ecosystem.
Options aren't live yet, and their final specifications remain unknown.
But strategically, the direction makes sense.
4. Hyperliquid has already shown what an exchange ecosystem can become
HyperEVM is an interesting reference.
According to our analysis of DefiLlama data, its native DeFi TVL reached approximately $1.6B at its August 2025 peak.
Lending, liquid staking, DEXs and other applications developed around the trading ecosystem.
Lighter could pursue a similar expansion, although its architecture and execution model are different.
And there's an important lesson here:
TVL isn't revenue. An ecosystem only creates direct economic value for the underlying protocol when activity reaches mechanisms that capture that value.
5. Putting the pieces together
I see Lighter's potential evolution like this:
Perps → Existing trading engine and revenue.
RWA and Pre-IPO → Broader exposure beyond crypto.
Options → More derivatives products and potential trading fees.
Lighter EVM → Third-party applications interacting with Core.
Unified margin → Potentially more efficient use of capital.
The ambition isn't simply to win more perp market share.
It's to become a programmable foundation for on-chain financial markets.
> My take
I like the direction, especially because Lighter already has an operating trading business behind the vision.
But the next stage is about execution.
Options need liquidity. EVM needs developers. Applications need real users.
If those pieces come together, Lighter could become substantially more valuable as a business.
And the next important date is already on the calendar.
> Inversor Call:
On Wednesday, October 21, Lighter will hold its Q3 Investor Call at 1:30 PM ET.
I'm particularly interested in whether we get more clarity on the options rollout, EVM mainnet, ecosystem development and the economic implications for $LIT.
Those updates aren't guaranteed, but the call could help us better understand what's coming next.
Because ultimately, the question isn't just what Lighter wants to build.
It's how much value that expansion can actually create and how much of it could flow back to $LIT.
I'll revisit that question after the investor call, with the latest information and some numbers behind the thesis.
🤖 Made with AI
TxFlow is bringing the CEX mobile experience to DeFi.
And honestly, it's one of the best mobile trading apps I've tried in DeFi.
I'm not a big fan of trading on mobile. I prefer managing my delta-neutral positions and analyzing charts on desktop.
But yesterday's sharp market drops reminded me why having a good mobile app matters.
Spot a dip, open @TxFlow_L1 , place a long or short. All in seconds.
That speed can make a real difference when markets move fast.
Of course, there's a trade-off: less room for proper chart analysis and a higher risk of making rushed decisions.
> What makes TxFlow stand out?
- CEX-like speed and user experience
- Decentralized trading infrastructure
- Official iOS and Android apps, no strange APKs
- Simple, intuitive interface
You can see the team's previous Blofin experience reflected in the product.
TxFlow has its pros and cons, but the mobile app is definitely one of its strengths.
> And a quick reminder about Points:
- October 20: First weekly distribution expected.
- Retroactive Points: Expected later, but no confirmed date yet.
If you haven't tried TxFlow, you can still get started:
app.txflow.com/r/TXSMART
