The smartest of the dumb. https://xitter.cf/t.co/iTGalOGA2y

Not Sure
Joined January 2023
A quick guide on how to win at life. Read the long form on my Substack. smartdumbman.substack.com/p/… 1/5
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Lots of Security incidents today, here's some practical tips for those who just wanna protect yourself: 1) UPDATE EVERYTHING - main targets are: a) Browsers - Chrome, Safari, Firefox b) OS: : Settings -> General -> software update; Linux: sudo apt update && sudo apt upgrade; Windows: I think there's a button. Do this for any remote home servers & Openclaw/hermes boxes c) Phones: Update it all d) Desktop apps (Slack, Cursor, Discord, etc) 2) Limit web browsing this week: Stay within walled gardens (twitter, youtube, etc); don't click random links this week. Just wait until the patches go through. Do step 1 again after a week. 3) Avoid untrusted Wifi networks until your devices are updated 4) Stay vigilant about phishing emails offering "certificate fixes" or fraud updates 5) Have an iPhone 11-16? TURN BLUETOOTH OFF for the time being until apple patches come through. 6) Code/Dev: UPDATE ALL YOUR REPOS - @charliermarsh has already updated uv 0.13.4 which reacts to the eMudra incident for uv (Python), Typesript according to Claude has equivelant. Tell your agents to go and update all your active repos to update package manager across uv, npm, bun, cargo, etc etc What advice did I miss?
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$XRP looking like a good rotational play while $BTC, $ETH, $SOL all look in sync and in the same corrective pattern. The alternative to the wxy on the 4H is a nested 1/2 in which case it would be even more bullish.
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Despite me bull posting $XRP, I just want to reiterate that Ripple is stupid, dumb, and a scam. However, it tends to run slightly off cycle, out of sync with main market. So, we accept the scam, make money off the scam, and then dump the scam.
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A 99% reduction in time to finality. Voting txns gone. Consensus algo beefed up. This is why Solana is the best. Job's never done. IBRL
Alpenglow is live on mainnet-beta ⛰️ 🎉 Solana’s new consensus protocol: finality reduced from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds, built by Anza. Why this is important 🧵
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Smart Dumb Man retweeted
Update #4: Adding more cycle analysis to back up my previous $BTC update. Assuming the first leg up is done (99% chance imo), and if we are following history, this pullback should end around mid-Dec (~80 days). We will then grind up another 40-80 days, putting us in to 2027. One of the pullback scenarios for me includes a flat where the local high gets taken out, then we nuke again. Patience grasshopper.
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My current crypto / bitcoin:native September game plan. $ETH, $SOL are the same setup. Seems too easy tho as a top would align with the back half of Sep which is historically ugly.
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Update #3: More pain coming. $BTC, $ETH, $SOL are all following the same path right now. - I deleted the alternate higher path on my chart. At the moment I'm focused mostly on time. 99% of the time, $BTC corrections hit AT LEAST the 0.38 fib time, which is Oct 22nd. So, based on current PA, I'm expecting a relief bounce...maybe even a fake out to the highs, then ultimately another 2-3 weeks of downtrend into the back half of Nov or even Dec.
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Update #4: Adding more cycle analysis to back up my previous $BTC update. Assuming the first leg up is done (99% chance imo), and if we are following history, this pullback should end around mid-Dec (~80 days). We will then grind up another 40-80 days, putting us in to 2027. One of the pullback scenarios for me includes a flat where the local high gets taken out, then we nuke again. Patience grasshopper.
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In reviewing my February article, I was largely correct, although a smidge early. Some updated notes: - The crypto bull market did indeed start from us simply running out of sellers, but also had the help of Robinhood chain igniting a spark. - While my onchain Z-Scores are still the best way to confirm (and oftentimes predict) L1 price movements, it is now more difficult to rely on them now due to the increased dynamics of offchain flows (ETF's / DAT's). - I missed the sudden spike in tokenized stocks. Tokenization of everything will bring the masses. AI Agents will run on crypto rails, but whether they gain adoption in a year is TBD, and probably not needed for crypto to thrive, while tokenization gains adoption. - My macro TA read on crypto as been pretty spot on for at least a few months, if not going back to Oct of last year. My current read on the market is that the AI stock trade is largely done with. That is not to say that it will crash, but will be a long bleed out. So... - Gold + Silver had its euphoric run and is now boring. - Stocks had its euphoric run and is now boring. = Leads to flows rotating into crypto which has been boring for the past few years. - I don't think we hit ATH's by year end necessarily, but the uptrend and new bull market should be more than confirmed by then. - Crypto Bears are Still Dumb.
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Smart Dumb Man retweeted
Real life, baby
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Back in the early 2000's my computer monitor would fritz out and go crazy for 3-5 seconds before my cell phone would ring. And so, to this day, I still have this undying urge to yell at people on planes that use their cell phones - "DO YOU WANT TO KILL EVERYONE ON THE PLANE????"
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Woah. Near AI integrated into Brave now.
You can now chat in @brave Leo with end-to-end encryption and verifiable privacy, powered by @near_ai Cloud. Browsers are a primary computing interface that handle all of our personal information, so it’s critical that AI is utilized in a user-owned way.
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If these are a bunched of stacked 1-2's, $HOOKR is about to teleport.
robinhood:0x18e674231a58c239dc7daedcffe15ec3a24cff5c is at least a $1B valuation token. Has been the main thing that I've been focused on over on Robinhood.
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Smart Dumb Man retweeted
Update #2 $LLY: We have liftoff. +10% while most of market is bleeding.
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My semi-new high conviction long term play (6-9 months): Eli Lilly $LLY 1) A 150 year old drug company. This might initially sound like a detractor, but a) it's survived this long and is very profitable, and b) that's 150 years of proprietary drug & biological data. 2) They are actively embracing AI and making the most of it with their propriety data & model. If you got excited about the release of Mythos 5 drug discovery results (screenshot below), you'll get excited about this. - In Jan, they announced a partnership with NVIDIA teaming up Lilly's biologists with NVIDIA's engineers in a dedicated lab. - In Feb, they announced their LillyPod supercomputer was brought online, which is a cluster of over 1,000 GPU's. - They have TuneLab which is a drug discovery platform that smaller biotechs can plug into to run tests using Lilly's data. In return, Lilly gets the test results back. The raw data is kept excluded, but yes/no test results are sent back so that Lilly can later inquire/partner on them. - They have LillyDirect, which is a platform that connects them directly to consumers, cutting out middlemen, thereby increasing profits. 3) In the drug pipeline, they have Foundayo queued up and FDA approved. It is the first GLP-1 pill that can be taken any time of day. In addition, they have Retatrutide also in the queue (Phase 3) for weight loss. While pharma companies are generally very hit and miss, $LLY is a high probability play due to its track record and the amount of shots on goal they can take. And chart-wise, the stock is breaking out to new all time highs after consolidating for 2 years. TLDR: 150 yr history + leading in AI + expanding partner network + expanding to consumers directly + GLP-1 pill in the queue. Bullish $LLY
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Update #1 $LLY: Been sitting in a starter position for a while. Seems like a good spot to load up a bunch more: - Nested structures stacking on each other - Resting on daily MA's - Probability of AI related break-thru increasing - Still highly profitable without break-thru
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Update #2 $LLY: We have liftoff. +10% while most of market is bleeding.
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Smart Dumb Man retweeted
Sunrise is partnering with @near_intents to establish liquid markets for NEAR Intents assets on @Solana. NEAR Intents powers universal asset access across chains. Sunrise establishes the markets. The rollout begins with $NEAR, now trading via Sunrise. Next, we plan to integrate NEAR Intents directly, opening more pathways for assets and liquidity to reach Solana.
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Smart Dumb Man retweeted
The Trump administration isn’t even trying to hide the aliens anymore bro
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Smart Dumb Man retweeted
Update #3: More pain coming. $BTC, $ETH, $SOL are all following the same path right now. - I deleted the alternate higher path on my chart. At the moment I'm focused mostly on time. 99% of the time, $BTC corrections hit AT LEAST the 0.38 fib time, which is Oct 22nd. So, based on current PA, I'm expecting a relief bounce...maybe even a fake out to the highs, then ultimately another 2-3 weeks of downtrend into the back half of Nov or even Dec.
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Smart Dumb Man retweeted
Dear Secretary Bessent @SecScottBessent, My name is Everett Stern. In 2010 I was a compliance officer at @HSBC. From a back office in New Castle, Delaware, I watched billions of dollars move to drug cartels, sanctioned regimes, and terrorist organizations. The enemies of the United States. I documented it, I escalated it, and when the bank would not act, I took it to the @FBI, the @CIA, and eventually the @SECGov. The result was a $1.92 billion settlement. At the time, it was one of the largest in American history. It was also about five weeks of the bank’s profit. Not one banker was charged. Not one went to prison. I paid a different price. I lost my career, my savings, and my place in the industry I had trained for. I was blacklisted. Every door in American finance closed at once. I slept on a camping cot in a 300 square foot apartment because I could not afford a bed, and I waited tables at @PFChangs to eat. I tell you this not for sympathy, but so you understand that I know exactly what it costs to do the right thing in American finance, and exactly how little the system does in return. I made that sacrifice because I believed it would change something. Yesterday, your department fined @BankofAmerica $1.2 billion for failing to report more than $5 billion in suspicious transactions, some of it tied by your own findings to Chinese laundering networks, narcotics, and the southwest border, alongside 475 apparent sanctions violations touching Russia, Iran, and global terrorism. The bank admitted it willfully violated the Bank Secrecy Act. Fourteen years after HSBC. A bank with “America” in its name. And once again, not one individual charged. Secretary Bessent, I want to say plainly what I believe you already know. The fines are not working. A fine is paid by shareholders, absorbed by the balance sheet, and forgotten by the next earnings call. Bank of America reported earnings this morning. Nobody who set the alert thresholds, nobody who decided the 2024 cease and desist could wait, nobody who chose the backlog over the law will lose a single thing they value. Their lives are untouched. That is the entire reason the behavior repeats. This is money laundering. This is blood money. Money that reaches a cartel buys fentanyl that kills Americans. Money that reaches a terrorist organization buys the next attack. This country has fought a war on drugs and a war on terror for decades, at enormous cost in lives and treasure, and all the while we have allowed the financing to flow through institutions we charter and regulate. Cut off the money and we win. We have never seriously tried. There is also a question of equal justice that I cannot let go. Before I walked into the FBI building to report HSBC, I stopped in front of the Great Seal on the wall and read the words engraved beneath it: “Justice is the defense of our liberty.” I believed that. I still want to. But every day in this country, people go to prison for crimes that are nothing next to moving money for the people who want Americans dead. A suit, a title, and a corporate badge should not be a shield from the consequences that apply to everyone else. If a street dealer goes to prison for what he sells, the banker who moved the cartel’s money should be standing next to him. I also want to raise something that is rarely said in these conversations. Why has no one inside Bank of America come forward the way I did? The answer is that everyone in American banking knows what happened to me, and to the whistleblowers who came after. The last person who spoke up is the only policy anyone believes. That is a culture problem, and it starts with leadership, in the banks and in the agencies that regulate them. This is not a political issue. It has spanned administrations of both parties. It is a national security issue, and I am asking you to treat it as one. Three things would change the math overnight. Refer individuals for criminal prosecution. Not the analyst in the queue. The executives who set the thresholds and chose the risk. One banker in handcuffs would do more than every fine in Treasury’s history combined. End “too big to jail.” An institution cannot be too big to fail and too big to jail at the same time. If it is the first, it must be held to a higher standard, not a lower one. And if Bank of America will not act as America’s bank, review its charter. A national charter is a privilege granted on behalf of the American people. It should be conditioned on not moving money for the people trying to kill them. Secretary Bessent, you said yesterday that these actions send a clear message that even the biggest institutions are not above the law. With respect, the institution was never the problem. The people inside it are above the law, and they know it. Until that changes, I will keep writing letters like this one, and the next bank will keep paying the next fine. I gave up everything I had to stop this. I am asking you to use the power you have to finish it. Respectfully, Everett A. Stern HSBC Whistleblower Founder and Intelligence Director, Tactical Rabbit
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Smart Dumb Man retweeted
1) Trying again. 
TLDR: Everyone can win. Open-source, frontier labs, infrastructure, applications and most importantly the American people.   I understand all of the jitters about Anthropic losing share, real rates, spreads and second derivatives. Still think the most likely future outcome is a hybrid, multi-model future where almost everyone wins, open-weight tokens are likely the overwhelming majority of tokens, the dominant frontier model companies still do well albeit perhaps not the outcome that seemed possible in May and AI infrastructure/applications benefit immensely from the increased fragmentation, competition and lower margins at the model layer.   Lower margins at the model layer mechanically drive higher compute demand as long as someone is willing to pay for the training. And Jensen is obviously willing to be the “trainer of last resort.” As below-market compute contracts signed in 24/25 roll-off and reprice higher, cloud and neocloud revenue should continue to accelerate which will help address financing fears; I think we may be near peak external financing for this buildout. Noteworthy that using data from 3Fourteen Research, B200 clusters will generate a 37% IRR *if* their rental price declines 40% per year. Prices are still going up, but that IRR math is too ridiculous to print. 37% IRRs available at scale should get funded. Re: this weekends controversy about MOUs, Anthropic’s $413 billion of real contractual commitments sounds scary. Reality is that it works out to roughly $31 billion of annual cloud spend, which is easily internally financed given their reported ARR, and $161 billion of spend at Broadcom which will be financed by Broadcom and private credit. Continue to believe fragmentation at the model layer is the best outcome for ordinary Americans and humans everywhere. As I have said before, do not trust any 5-20 individuals to make the best possible decisions about the direction of this technology. I want as many AIs as possible to maximize the odds that they encompass the diversity of human values across the world and richness of human variation. And I want an AI that shares my own personal values. Safety, freedom and the maximization of human agency through democratization, distribution and diffusion vs. centralization. History has spoken on the dangers of the latter path. Finally, from my perspective anything that slows this buildout down is net positive over the long-term as the biggest risk and worst outcome is an *actual* overbuild. We are structurally short watts, wafers and increasingly capital. That is all good. God forbid we were still in ZIRP, TSM ramped capex to 3x their current plan and we weren’t short turbine blades: there would almost certainly be an overbuild and a bubble. That would be terrible. Slower and smoother for longer is better both for investors and for the world. A terrible cyber event is the most plausible near term bear case IMHO, but AI cyberdefense ramping quickly and I was happy to hear Sholto say that cyber probably becomes defense dominant in the near future.   Longer, threaded version follows:
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Smart Dumb Man retweeted
It’s time. Alpenglow goes live on mainnet-beta Wednesday, October 21, ~14:50 UTC. 18 months of work for a migration that happens in one slot. Finality drops from seconds to ~150ms. Make sure to follow us @anza_xyz as we countdown to go-live. Details: anza.xyz/alpenglow
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