Investing @BITKRAFTVC | Prev. pro Fortnite + top 25 valorant

NYC
Joined April 2019
Lifes crazy❗️ @AzukiZen @ZZZAGABOND
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Our team spent a year experimenting with trading agents across stocks, crypto, perps, and prediction markets. In our latest research piece, "Ten Hard Problems In Agentic Investing" we cover what we think great agents need to deliver on, where we see opportunities in the market and offer up an open source framework aimed at the memory and rule enforcement. 🔗bitkraft.vc/insights/10-hard…
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Getting an agent to pitch a trade is one thing. Trusting it with your portfolio over time is another. Our take on 10 hard problems in agentic investing and the opportunities in solving them 👇
Everyone has a story of missed investment riches. Agents promise to fix that. After building systems across prediction markets, crypto, perps and stocks, we think most won’t... yet. "10 hard problems in agentic investing" (written w/ @SpinFN) Thread + bitkraft.vc/insights/10-hard…
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Everett retweeted
LFT 👀
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Some writing I did on where digital pack opening is headed and what will separate the winners. bitkraft.vc/insights/the-pac… The reveal is easy to copy. The harder part is turning that moment into a lasting collecting experience through better inventory, deeper gameplay, and community. Ultimately, the winners will build something people return to even when the pull disappoints.
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Ripping a pack used to be over in ten seconds. Now the cards live in a vault and can be opened, traded or sold back whenever you like. Everett Chiang (@SpinFN) why the reveal is only the start, and what will separate the platforms that last: 🔗 bitkraft.vc/insights/the-pac… @Courtyard_io @Collector_Crypt @BOXEDHQ #Collectibles #TradingCards
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The Pack Is Just The Beginning by @SpinFN We've invested in this category since 2022 through @heyboxed and have had a front row seat to its explosive growth We see the opportunity beyond the rip to turn suspense into a real collecting loop bitkraft.vc/insights/the-pac…
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Introducing Midcentury. We’re building the data and simulation infra for physical AI. Today, we’re coming out of stealth with a $15M Series Seed to scale robotics beyond polished demos. We’re already supporting frontier labs with: → The world’s largest egocentric dataset: 2M+ hours, 50+ environments, 20,000+ tasks → Matrix: a frontier simulation platform scaled with our real-world data to evaluate and post-train policies at scale
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The last major keyboard moment was in 2007, when Apple put the keyboard on glass. Nearly 20 years later, we're introducing: Acti @openacti1, the Agentic Keyboard. Not another AI keyboard that fixes grammar. Not another voice keyboard that types faster. An invisible agent in every text field. It doesn't predict your next word. It takes your next action. 👇
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+77% AOV growth so far this year compared to this time last year (and growing). We’re mindful of not just buying growth with marketing. The goal is building a durable business by relentlessly improving the product. Our AOV trend tells the story better than anything else: users are getting dramatically more confident spending higher cart values with Dupe at their side and its because the product got better not because we cranked ad spend. The secret is we disrupt ourselves constantly. Every other month or two we’re willing to rethink core assumptions, ship risky changes, and rebuild things from scratch if needed. Most experiments don't move the needle, but the learnings compound until one changes the trajectory of the company. The unlocks so far have been: → AI that understands shopping intent more accurately than leading foundation models and shopping startups alike → Superior product matching algorithms that understand shoppers' preferences → Deep investment in making our partners more money with each click → 1B+ products processed across 1M+ stores → Major UX upgrades across the experience → Major investments in growing the team Dupe is the only consumer AI shopping platform purpose-built to compound buyer conviction over time. We're hiring in NYC (or tri-state) btw. We need: - iOS Eng - API Eng - SRE - Head of Creator - AI Systems Eng - Product Designer - Executive Assistant - Growth Marketer - Lifecycle Marketer solana:fRfKGCriduzDwSudCwpL7ySCEiboNuryhZDVJtr1a1C
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I always dreamed to make proper hard sci-fi. It been around my head for years - to bring life to new universe with predicting-the-future approach. And, of course, add something new to the genre as I did with Tarkov. Now my life has become twice as difficult. I decided to rush in with the thought: what if more time passes and I no longer can or want to do anything new? Frago is being developed by separate company that I created, full of great ppl around the globe. Escape from Tarkov is my life and I'm continue working on it too with my BSG family no matter what. Tarkov for life. Frago is the new adventure that I want to share with you. Thank you for your support and long live hardcore!
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The consumer tech landscape just hit a massive inflection point: In 2025, non-gaming apps officially out-earned games for the first time. 🧵
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When prediction markets hit $60B in volume, the integrity question becomes impossible to ignore. 👇🧵
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DraftKings, Robinhood, now Underdog. Owning the rails is the meta
Some prediction market deal news: Fantasy sports company Underdog has acquired Aristotle’s CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse licenses. Aristotle will continue to operate PredictIt, one of the OG political betting markets. More on @TheTerminal
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Lots of great bits in here on where the space is moving. Feels like we’re still in the first inning
We just published the Prediction Index Annual Report 2025–2026. 👉predictionindex.xyz/annual-r… Over the past year we tracked 268 projects, $120B+ in cumulative volume, and 115k+ live markets across the prediction market ecosystem. The report is a collection of essays from builders in the trench, researchers, traders - those who dive into market structure, research process, trading execution and see how programmable probability is reshaping our politics, culture, and trading in real-time. We cover topics like competitive market design and infra, monetization innovation, proxy hedging, oracle, liquidity and more. Read the full report here: predictionindex.xyz/annual-r… Huge thanks to the main contributors who made this possible: @lililashka @MartonBorsos @ericsports from @predictionindex @probabilitygod @Inframarkets @MarcinRedStone from @redstone_defi @justigor from @functionspaceHQ @AliHabbabeh from @xomarket @JustinHerzig from @EstablishtheRun @gianlucapanz from @predikapp @drealblaise @hanami_foresee And appreciation to frens who supported the thinking, reviewed drafts, and shared ideas along the way: @NathanWorsley_ from @Euphoria_fi @dimahorshkov from @trylimitless @thib0ault from @Polymarket @meleemarkets
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Excellent piece from my colleague Ben on why the durable AI advantage is shifting from models to the environments they learn and operate within.
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Came across this stat in a WaPo article from October: 82% of bets placed by 21–24 year olds are parlays. A 5-leg parlay wins ~3% of the time (assuming 50% chance on each leg), with a ~21% house edge... The purest expression of the get-rich-quick mindset gripping my age group. Small stakes, asymmetric upside, and knowingly poor odds.
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