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Joined May 2024
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Not sure why so many people are complaining about the 'Under' stuff. These are some of the players that averaged under 12 minutes last season:
Moritz Wagner
Charles Bassey
Branden Carlson
PJ Hall
Tyler Kolek
Mo Bamba
Tyrese Proctor
Blake Wesley
Asa Newell
Omer Yurtseven
Colby Jones
Tolu Smith
Jabari Walker
Yuki Kawamura
Tony Bradley
Olivier Sarr
Liam McNeeley
Yanic Konan Niederhauser
Brandon Clarke
Carter Bryant
Myron Gardner
Grant Nelson
Malaki Branham
Zyon Pullin
Patrick Baldwin
Dalen Terry
Jeremy Sochan
Most of the people complaining about this are the ones that are still taking the over on Luka, Jokic, and LeBron every night. Don't make a mountain out of a molehill.
The NBA and prominent sportsbooks have agreed to ban multiple types of bets, per me and @DavidPurdum, such as:
- Parlay bets involving the under on the same player's statistics
- "First of" market; examples: winner of opening tip, an individual's specific shot, rebound, assist, steal
- Under bets on players expected to play less than 12 minutes a game
and it’s void
Keenan Allen 7+ Receptions (+520 FD)
This is a volume play in a matchup that gives a ton of catches. Washington allows the MOST receptions to WRs in the NFL so far this season, with about 15 a game and the way they do it matters:
- 88% catch rate allowed behind the line of scrimmage
- 75% catch rate allowed on short throws
- Only about 4 yards per target on those short throws
They let you catch it, then tackle you which is a bad matchup for a yards prop, but a great one for a reception prop. Now we can take a deeper look at where Allen gets his work:
- 75% of his targets come short or behind the line
- Half his targets come on 2nd down, which is where Washington allows an 81% catch rate to receivers
- He's caught 6 passes in 2 of his 3 games
His current role is locked in. With Alec Pierce out again, Allen played 73% of the snaps last week and saw 9 targets and catching 6, so there's nobody to take those snaps back yet.
The game script helps too because Washington has one of the best run defenses in football and have allowed just 3.3 yards per carry to running backs and the fewest 10+ yard runs in the league. So, if the Colts can't run, Jones has to move the ball through the short passing game, and that's where Allen should thrive.
The biggest possible risk that I can see is that Allen is third in line for targets behind Downs and Warren, and he needs around 9 looks to get to 7 catches. His Week 2 (1 catch on a reduced snap count) is the downside if his role shrinks, but the Commanders have given up catches to everyone and I think Allen gets his share.
Prop: Keenan Allen 7+ Receptions
Keenan Allen 7+ Receptions (+520 FD)
This is a volume play in a matchup that gives a ton of catches. Washington allows the MOST receptions to WRs in the NFL so far this season, with about 15 a game and the way they do it matters:
- 88% catch rate allowed behind the line of scrimmage
- 75% catch rate allowed on short throws
- Only about 4 yards per target on those short throws
They let you catch it, then tackle you which is a bad matchup for a yards prop, but a great one for a reception prop. Now we can take a deeper look at where Allen gets his work:
- 75% of his targets come short or behind the line
- Half his targets come on 2nd down, which is where Washington allows an 81% catch rate to receivers
- He's caught 6 passes in 2 of his 3 games
His current role is locked in. With Alec Pierce out again, Allen played 73% of the snaps last week and saw 9 targets and catching 6, so there's nobody to take those snaps back yet.
The game script helps too because Washington has one of the best run defenses in football and have allowed just 3.3 yards per carry to running backs and the fewest 10+ yard runs in the league. So, if the Colts can't run, Jones has to move the ball through the short passing game, and that's where Allen should thrive.
The biggest possible risk that I can see is that Allen is third in line for targets behind Downs and Warren, and he needs around 9 looks to get to 7 catches. His Week 2 (1 catch on a reduced snap count) is the downside if his role shrinks, but the Commanders have given up catches to everyone and I think Allen gets his share.
Prop: Keenan Allen 7+ Receptions
Also worth noting that he is questionable. If he doesn't play, it will void. If he does play, there is a risk that he doesn't get the volume he should. Understand the risks before playing this with me. xitter.cf/RotoWireNFL/status/210…
Keenan Allen (groin) was estimated as a non-participant on Friday's injury report and is listed as questionable for Week 4.
Via @By_NathanBrown
