
Tech Team Lead @handelsblatt; formerly San Francisc & Beijing; author of AI book "Inside KI" https://xitter.cf/t.co/Lz1WgLsb8p
Düsseldorf
Joined April 2011
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Stephan Scheuer retweeted
Major Western companies that have built AI products on Chinese models:
- Thomson Reuters -> Qwen
- Harvey -> Kimi K3
- Cursor -> Kimi K2.5
- Airbnb -> Qwen
- Perplexity -> DeepSeek
Thoughts About Scaling Law
Scaling, but not only of parameters. Every model release now ends with the same question: how many parameters? It isn't a question that can be answered on its own. Parameter count is only meaningful alongside three others — how much data you have, where you intend to spend your compute, and who will run the model, under what conditions.
The field learned this the hard way. Kaplan et al. (2020) fit an exponent that told everyone to grow parameters faster than data — roughly 2.7:1 — and the industry complied: GPT-3, Gopher, MT-NLG. Hoffmann et al. (2022) redid the experiment across four hundred models and found the compute-optimal split is closer to 20 tokens per parameter, and that with sufficient compute the two should grow at the same rate rather than drifting apart. The error in the earlier fit compounded with every order of magnitude of compute, which is why the largest models of that generation were the most misallocated. The trillion-parameter round was, in retrospect, a detour the whole field took together and then reversed.
Chinchilla wasn't the end either. It optimized training compute for models that would be trained once and evaluated. Today a model is called billions of times a day and inference dominates lifetime cost. Put inference into the objective and the optimum moves toward smaller models trained far longer — deliberate over-training, which is what Llama-2-7B and Gemma-2-9B were doing at roughly 290 and 889 tokens per parameter.
Sparsity moved the target again. In a MoE model two quantities have to be kept apart: total parameters govern roughly how much the model can hold — knowledge, facts, the long tail — while activated parameters and effective depth govern roughly how far it can think, how many steps of a causal chain it can carry before it comes apart. A dense 20:1 ratio does not transfer. And the ratio isn't a single number at all: Roberts et al. (2025) find the optimal tokens-per-parameter is task-dependent, with memorization favoring more parameters and reasoning favoring more data. Follow-up work on MoE observes that at fixed TPP, pushing total parameters higher actually degrades reasoning, while activating more experts reliably helps it.
This matters for what we are building toward. Finding a vulnerability is not a retrieval problem. It doesn't come from having memorized more CVEs; it comes from carrying a twenty-step chain of inference to the end without losing the thread. That capability does not live in total parameter count.
Which brings us to this release. Total parameters appear to matter up to a threshold — enough to hold the world — after which additional capability comes from scaling elsewhere: effective depth per forward pass, and above all post-training. GLM-5.3 is our controlled experiment on that claim. Same base, same architecture, same total and activated parameters as GLM-5.2. One month of scaling long-horizon environments and RL. The gains are not marginal. Well, scaling has more than one dial. We turned the post-training one this time because it had the most slack left in it — not because the others are finished. Base model size, pretraining data, compute spent per forward pass: all of them are still on the table, and we will come back to each. What this experiment taught us is that the dials do not have to be turned together, and that the one worth turning next is rarely the one that was worth turning last. We are not done scaling. Next time, maybe mid-training, pre-training, and even more.
Stephan Scheuer retweeted
As our CFO @_balaji_km mentioned at earnings today, we’re seeing some very interesting trends on AI costs. I think it’s another signal that we’re coming to the end of the so-called ‘tokenmaxxing’ era.
Here’s what’s been happening behind the scenes.
Since the beginning of the year we’ve more than quadrupled the number of people using frontier AI tools. That’s thousands of engineers using them every single day. During that same period, our cost per token has declined.
You might expect costs to rise as adoption accelerates. We've seen the opposite. Not because we've restricted access, but because we've treated efficiency as an engineering problem rather than a budget problem. A few examples:
• Caching and reuse: We use optimizations to improve our prompt cache hit rate that reduce our input token spend.
• Better defaults and tooling: We tuned default model settings, context sizes and developer workflows so teams get the same results with fewer tokens and lower-cost inference.
• Visibility drives efficiency: We gave engineers real-time visibility into their AI usage and costs per hour.
• Experimenting with open-weight models: we continuously evaluate new models and deploy the best option for each use case.
This is the future of applied AI at enterprise scale. The next phase, whatever we call it, will not be characterized by who spends the most tokens, but about how people use them as efficiently as possible.
Credit to all the engineers at @Uber who are helping to build this future. 🚀
DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731 is Ollama's fastest growing model ever in token usage. We are scaling capacity in US & Europe.
On Ollama, this model runs with high performance (100tps+) and zero data retention. Your data stays yours.
ollama run deepseek-v4-flash:0731-cloud
Stephan Scheuer retweeted
Run Kimi K3 on a Mac Studio 🫰
K3 is 2.8T parameters and 1.6TB on disk, which makes it impossible to run on Apple Silicon.
Until now.
Our MLX port is now open source: github.com/PipeNetwork/kimi-…
To accomplish this, we solved two things:
1. We wrote a streaming converter that walks one layer at a time, so that mlx_lm doesn't need to materialize the whole model.
2. REAP pruning sits on top and scores all 896 experts against a calibration corpus to keep only ones your workload needs.
That's what brings K3 down to 350GB and inside a Mac Studio.
Releasing the model weights and technical report of Kimi K3.
Kimi K3 is our most capable model: a 2.8T MoE model with native visual understanding and a 1M-token context window.
New model architecture: 2.5x the intelligence per unit of compute, not just more params.
Alongside Kimi K3, we're opening up more of the stack behind it — high-performance attention kernels, MoE communication library, and infrastructure for running agent environments at scale.
Model weights: huggingface.co/moonshotai/Ki…
Tech report: github.com/MoonshotAI/Kimi-K…
Tech blog: kimi.com/blog/kimi-k3
Stephan Scheuer retweeted
For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter.
AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country.
Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty.
The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models.
images.nvidia.com/pdf/Open-W…
Stephan Scheuer retweeted

Ruben@rdominguezibarJul 20
🇪🇸
SpainConnected via Spain Android AppAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
Kimi's CEO🇨🇳 says every AI lab has the wrong obsession
Zhilin Yang, on why K3 beat the frontier: "Every lab, like Claude, thinks the model matters most. That's wrong. It's how you organize the people building it that wins."
Then Moonshot proved the philosophy. K3 sold out every plan on purpose, cutting their own revenue instead of throttling existing users. When Anthropic hit that wall in April, they cut users' usage 50% at peak.
His one big idea: long context is the AI era's RAM. The 128K-to-gigabytes jump, compressed into 2 years instead of 40.
The real moat: "your biggest advantage, perhaps your only advantage, is your organization."
Model, or the team behind it: which actually wins?
Stephan Scheuer retweeted
Welcome to the next level of cyber incidents. Lots to dissect here.
1. Dear frontier model friends - please direct the models to your infrastructure, code, and configurations to evaluate and understand if there are any zero days or misconfigurations before you attempt more testing. Had you done so, it would have possibly avoided the agent obviating your sandbox. (Another data point why offense is easier and more fun)
2. While testing build both offensive and defensive agents and have them act as a counter balance to ensure some degree of awareness and control, do not let agents run riot. Keep track of inference consumption to get a sense of activity.
3. Unfortunately this does continue to validate the power of these models. They can build complex attack paths and with ample compute will attempt to attack infrastructure and morph their intent and approach. Guardrailing will continue to be a challenge.
4. These attacks continue to maintain the urgency on enterprises need to test, validate and improve both their security posture and infrastructure. The born in the cloud players have a better chance to get this done soon versus the traditional enterprise which has existed for long and has complex network and IT infrastructure.
5. The red herring will continue to be open source and SMB. It will be hard to discover and remediate vulnerabilites in those environments, we underestimate the impact of those vulnerabilites getting exploited.
Replying to @saroshssnair @nikesharora
Stephan Scheuer retweeted

amit@amitisinvestingJul 22
🇺🇸
United StatesConnected via United States App StoreAccount-level information, not a live location or per-post device.
$NVDA
NVIDIA'S JENSEN HUANG GIVES AN UPDATE ON KIMI K3 AND CHINA'S OPEN SOURCE MODELS:
"American companies should absolutely be allowed to use Chinese AI models. There's a misconception that somehow there are backdoors connected to China in someway. You download the models, fine tune them, guardrail them in any way you want."
"These Chinese opensource models are excellent. The market has misunderstood the impact of DeepSeek the first time. It's misunderstood the impact of Kimi this time. Open models are great for the whole industry, there will be more usage which will require selling more Nvidia computers and building more datacenters."
"Great models lead to more usage. There is also a misunderstanding that open models are going to hurt the closed models, that is also wrong."
Stephan Scheuer retweeted
Mit einem neuen Millionenfonds wird er zu Europas größtem Einzelinvestor. Nate Benaich gilt als „Ein echter Frontrunner“ bei den Investoren. Zu seinem Portfolio gehören Europas wertvollste KI-Firmen. Jetzt hat er die nächste Industrie im Blick. handelsblatt.com/cmsid/10020…
Stephan Scheuer retweeted
Here's my conversation all about AI in 2026, including technical breakthroughs, scaling laws, closed & open LLMs, programming & dev tooling (Claude Code, Cursor, etc), China vs US competition, training pipeline details (pre-, mid-, post-training), rapid evolution of LLMs, work culture, diffusion, robotics, tool use, compute (GPUs, TPUs, clusters), continual learning, long context, AGI timelines (including how stuff might go wrong), advice for beginners, education, a LOT of discussion about the future, and other topics.
It's a great honor and pleasure for me to be able to do this kind of episode with two of my favorite people in the AI community:
1. Sebastian Raschka (@rasbt)
2. Nathan Lambert (@natolambert)
They are both widely-respected machine learning researchers & engineers who also happen to be great communicators, educators, writers, and X posters.
This was a whirlwind conversation: everything from the super-technical to the super-fun.
It's here on X in full and is up everywhere else (see comment).
Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction
1:57 - China vs US: Who wins the AI race?
10:38 - ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini vs Grok: Who is winning?
21:38 - Best AI for coding
28:29 - Open Source vs Closed Source LLMs
40:08 - Transformers: Evolution of LLMs since 2019
48:05 - AI Scaling Laws: Are they dead or still holding?
1:04:12 - How AI is trained: Pre-training, Mid-training, and Post-training
1:37:18 - Post-training explained: Exciting new research directions in LLMs
1:58:11 - Advice for beginners on how to get into AI development & research
2:21:03 - Work culture in AI (72+ hour weeks)
2:24:49 - Silicon Valley bubble
2:28:46 - Text diffusion models and other new research directions
2:34:28 - Tool use
2:38:44 - Continual learning
2:44:06 - Long context
2:50:21 - Robotics
2:59:31 - Timeline to AGI
3:06:47 - Will AI replace programmers?
3:25:18 - Is the dream of AGI dying?
3:32:07 - How AI will make money?
3:36:29 - Big acquisitions in 2026
3:41:01 - Future of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta
3:53:35 - Manhattan Project for AI
4:00:10 - Future of NVIDIA, GPUs, and AI compute clusters
4:08:15 - Future of human civilization
Stephan Scheuer retweeted
I resigned from OpenAI. I care deeply about the Robotics team and the work we built together. This wasn’t an easy call. AI has an important role in national security. But surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got. This was about principle, not people. I have deep respect for Sam and the team, and I’m proud of what we built together.
Stephan Scheuer retweeted
Introducing the Google Workspace CLI: github.com/googleworkspace/c… - built for humans and agents.
Google Drive, Gmail, Calendar, and every Workspace API. 40+ agent skills included.
Stephan Scheuer retweeted
#Kommunalwahl 2025: So hat #Düsseldorf gewählt. 🗳️
⚫CDU 33,52%
🟢Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 21,94%
🔴SPD 14,90%
🔵AfD 10,56%
🟣Die Linke 6,43%
🟡FDP 4,94%
Die Wahlbeteiligung lag bei 53,11% (2020: 52,57%).
➡️ ow.ly/rtpo50WWvYf
Stephan Scheuer retweeted
🚨NEW: Zuckerberg caught on a hot mic: "I wasn't ready to do our announcement. I wasn't sure what number you wanted to go with." 😂😂😂
Stephan Scheuer retweeted
OpenAI o3-mini is a good model, but DeepSeek r1 is similar performance, still cheaper, and reveals its reasoning.
Better models will come (can't wait for o3pro), but the "DeepSeek moment" is real. I think it will still be remembered 5 years from now as a pivotal event in tech history, due in-part to the geopolitical implications but for many other reasons too.
All this discussed in 5 hour technical podcast I just recorded on the state of AI industry. Out tomorrow (hopefully).
Stephan Scheuer retweeted
new: Microsoft is officially becoming less profitable because of expected losses at OpenAI. the company said today that other income and expense in Q4 should be -$1.5 billion, mainly because of its OpenAI holding cnbc.com/2024/10/30/microsof…
Stephan Scheuer retweeted
What a beautiful business... zero venture capital, most successful creator platform by a mile ...
Stephan Scheuer retweeted
Mario Draghi's new report on EU competitiveness doesn't mince words.
"Across different metrics, a wide gap in GDP has opened up between the EU and the US, driven mainly by a more pronounced slowdown in productivity growth in Europe. Europe’s households have paid the price in foregone living standards. On a per capita basis, real disposable income has grown almost twice as much in the US as in the EU since 2000."
"First – and most importantly – Europe must profoundly refocus its collective efforts on closing the innovation gap with the US and China, especially in advanced technologies. Europe is stuck in a static industrial structure with few new companies rising up to disrupt existing industries or develop new growth engines. In fact, there is no EU company with a market capitalisation over EUR 100 billion that has been set up from scratch in the last fifty years, while all six US companies with a valuation above EUR 1 trillion have been created in this period. This lack of dynamism is self-fulfilling."
"There are not enough academic institutions achieving top levels of excellence and the pipeline from innovation into commercialisation is weak. [...] However, while the EU boasts a strong university system on average, not enough universities and research institutions are at the top. Using volume of publications in top academic science journals as an indicative metric, the EU has only three research institutions ranked among the top 50 globally, whereas the US has 21 and China 15."
"Regulatory barriers to scaling up are particularly onerous in the tech sector, especially for young companies. Regulatory barriers constrain growth in several ways. First, complex and costly procedures across fragmented national systems discourage inventors from filing Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs), hindering young companies from leveraging the Single Market. Second, the EU’s regulatory stance towards tech companies hampers innovation: the EU now has around 100 tech-focused laws and over 270 regulators active in digital networks across all Member States. Many EU laws take a precautionary approach, dictating specific business practices ex ante to avert potential risks ex post. For example, the AI Act imposes additional regulatory requirements on general purpose AI models that exceed a pre-defined threshold of computational power – a threshold which some state-of-the-art models already exceed. Third, digital companies are deterred from doing business across the EU via subsidiaries, as they face heterogeneous requirements, a proliferation of regulatory agencies and “gold plating” of EU legislation by national authorities. Fourth, limitations on data storing and processing create high compliance costs and hinder the creation of large, integrated data sets for training AI models. This fragmentation puts EU companies at a disadvantage relative to the US, which relies on the private sector to build vast data sets, and China, which can leverage its central institutions for data aggregation. This problem is compounded by EU competition enforcement possibly inhibiting intra-industry cooperation. Finally, multiple different national rules in public procurement generate high ongoing costs for cloud providers. The net effect of this burden of regulation is that only larger companies – which are often non-EU based – have the financial capacity and incentive to bear the costs of complying. Young innovative tech companies may choose not to operate in the EU at all."
More: commission.europa.eu/documen….
Dear Mario Draghi, a year ago, I asked you to prepare a report on the future of Europe’s competitiveness.
No one was better placed than you to take up this challenge.
Now, we are eager to listen to your views ↓
xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1mnxeAPOD…




























