My geopolitical predictions track record kinda sucks (I earnestly feared a [Trump-enabled] KJU nuke strike against SK), but here's another: IF Ukraine manages to largely frustrate Putin's land-grab war, and IF the West maintains crippling measures, RF will break up in a few yrs.
"An nescis, mi fili, quantilla prudentia mundus regatur?" [Do you not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is governed?] -- Axel Oxenstierna in a letter to reassure his insecure son, a delegate to the negotiations that would lead to the Peace of Westphalia.
A year-plus ago, the social-mediasphere, our wired-not-tired version of the chattering classes, was amusing itself with a novel question: "How often do you think about the Roman Empire?"
I suggest a follow-up parlor game, but re. the Seleucid Empire... now newly relevant.
...siccing cops and mil on peaceable if PO'd marching citizens, suppressing every labor union except for the "Thin Blue Line"'s own denizens, rolling back every business reg that saved a life or spared a tree, and exploiting, mining, drilling, fracking, sawing, grazing, and...
Done the math yet? They lasted 248 years. The same span as, um, 1776-2024.
(Yeah, yeah, yeah, the historian in me can quibble the hell out of that, and I wasn't even a 17th C - Federalist Era specialist, but history is full of such simplified stats...
