CEO @NosibleAI - Worldwide Web Surveillance

South Africa
Joined June 2013
Web search is holding back AI 👇🏻 Web search costs two orders of magnitude too much and is holding back large-scale AI adoption in enterprises. Here's a story that illustrates this. An agentic risk analyst agent does 100 searches a day to find lawsuits, cyber-attacks, recalls, strikes, and other material events for 25,000 companies. A dataset of 10 million results with 500 tokens each would cost around $5,000 to process with grok-4-fast. It would also cost <$5 a day to maintain. BUT ... how much would those web searches cost? Well at $5 CPM it would be $12,500/day ($5 ÷ 1000 x 100 x 25,000). Yes. $12,500/DAY! And that's only 25,000 companies. Imagine you're a big US bank tracking ~3 million business customers. You'd be spending a million dollars a day. It's obvious that web search is the optimal form factor for AI tooling. It's also obvious that $5CPM for search looks utterly ridiculous next to token costs. This story is not made up. This is exactly what I tried to build years ago. I honestly didn't think I would need to build a search engine first ... but here we are. On Oct 29 at @SHACK15sf I'll present a talk "The End of Blind Spots: Agentic Search as an Enterprise Risk Model" at the BrightData Web Discovery Summit. So, if you're in SF, and you feel like geeking out over web search you should definitely try attend. @RichardSocher and @paraga are also speaking!
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I recently asked my team which AI models they prefer (they had access to multiple). The answer: Gemini. Surprised, I made the switch as well. They were right: it is just as good / better and much faster. So I've canceled our OpenAI subscriptions.
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Each act, each occasion, is worse than the last, but only a little worse. You wait for the next and the next. You wait for one great shocking occasion, thinking that others, when such a shock comes, will join with you in resisting somehow.
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Stuart Reid retweeted
Replying to @liron
there are red flags to be found I’m sure but somehow you consistently come up with the most retarded ones
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Crossed 50M downloads in Python alone — not counting 13 other languages 🥳 🔹 Vector search (FAISS, Lucene) → USearch 🔹 Text search, hash, parse → StringZilla 🔹 Vector math → SimSIMD Another big Python drop lands in November. Can’t wait to share 🤗
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SSH terminal open in the backseat of an Uber travelling back from Palo Alto. Living my best SF life ✌🏻
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I don’t know who you are. I don’t know what fund you run. But what I do have are a very particular set of skills, skills I have acquired over a long career in web access, crawling, and search. Skills that make me a nightmare. I can reach where APIs can't. I can move through firewalls and captchas as if they were open doors. I can orchestrate fleets of crawlers that map the internet faster than your competitors can spell “alpha.” I can extract patterns from chaos, and truth from noise. If you let me work, that’ll be the end of it, you’ll have data that never sleeps, and insights long before anyone else sees them. If you cling to structured data ... I will find your blind spots. I will expose your weaknesses. And while you’re still waiting for the market to wake up my signals will already be fueling your competitors’ funds - training their models, shaping their edge, and compounding their returns while you chase the leftover signals.
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I'm sick and tired of pretending everything to do with LLMs not working is a "skill issue". It's not.
A year ago I used frontier LLMs to extract (subject, predicate, object) triples from Wikipedia text. They SUCKED and needed lots of post processing to be useful. Today I used frontier LLMs to extract (subject, predicate, object) triples from Wikipedia text. They still SUCK and still need lots of post processing to be useful. They: - Regularly swap the order e.g. a subsidiary owns a parent. - Hallucinate fake relationships e.g. Eric Schmidt founded Google. - Misconstrues full ownership e.g. Blackrock owns Alphabet. My 2c: These things do not have a world model. They are not actually reasoning. Hallucinations are still a big problem. The reason why 95% of AI deployments fail is NOT a skill issue. The reason why every AI agent startup is dying from churn is NOT a skill issue. These models are genuinely still extremely stupid.
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A year ago I used frontier LLMs to extract (subject, predicate, object) triples from Wikipedia text. They SUCKED and needed lots of post processing to be useful. Today I used frontier LLMs to extract (subject, predicate, object) triples from Wikipedia text. They still SUCK and still need lots of post processing to be useful. They: - Regularly swap the order e.g. a subsidiary owns a parent. - Hallucinate fake relationships e.g. Eric Schmidt founded Google. - Misconstrues full ownership e.g. Blackrock owns Alphabet. My 2c: These things do not have a world model. They are not actually reasoning. Hallucinations are still a big problem. The reason why 95% of AI deployments fail is NOT a skill issue. The reason why every AI agent startup is dying from churn is NOT a skill issue. These models are genuinely still extremely stupid.
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Building on the frontier of anything is mentally exhausting.
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Replying to @latkins
This code is extremely dangerous. Here, I improved it.
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Back in SF. Anybody keen to grab a coffee this week or next? ☕️🌉
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Headed to the airport. Silicon Valley here I come (again) 🌉
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For years my feed has been only LLM stuff. Now I'm seeing quant content again. Not sure what has changed, but I like it. Quants are still debating the same stuff they were 3 years ago and there is something so peaceful in that 🕊
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this is embarrassing
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This is goal post regression. What @karpathy describes is what AGI meant for decades. Only recently has ASI been coined and it's definition is also regressing. ASI used to mean an AGI capable of discovering fundamental laws of the universe than humans can't. Now its lame as fuck.
What @karpathy describes here is ASI not AGI. Let me explain: You can't drop a generally intelligent human into *any* job and expect them to perform competently. E.g. I have a friend who is a very smart M.D. Drop him into my job tomorrow and he's completely lost. He'd need training. Sholto Douglas, fmr. DeepMind and now Anthropic researcher, said (also on Dwarkesh pod) that we are are close to the point where you can RL train an LLM to do any knowledge work job if someone cares enough to make it happen. That's not a decade away. Possible that I misunderstood but imo if you can train an LLM with RL to do a specific job in the near future that is human level because humans require training too. Drop in employee to *any* job is superhuman.
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Yesterday I had a meeting with a VC that came incredibly well prepared. They knew our business. They knew our competitors. They knew search and vertical search. They had amazing questions and good suggestions. It was so refreshing!
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The @karpathy interview 0:00:00 – AGI is still a decade away 0:30:33 – LLM cognitive deficits 0:40:53 – RL is terrible 0:50:26 – How do humans learn? 1:07:13 – AGI will blend into 2% GDP growth 1:18:24 – ASI 1:33:38 – Evolution of intelligence & culture 1:43:43 - Why self driving took so long 1:57:08 - Future of education Look up Dwarkesh Podcast on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, etc. Enjoy!
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If you're doing RAG for finance you need to understand the limits of vector search. Specifically: 📊 They don't generalize out of the training data distribution. 👨‍🍳 The training data mix prioritizes semantics over entities. In other words: If your data contains concepts or named entities that were not in the data used to train that embedding model your retrieval will suffer. And, what's worse is that your retrieval will sooner return info about a similar event at the wrong company than a dissimilar event at the correct company. This is a major source of hallucinations! The best solution we have found is Faceted Srarch. Faceted Search is widely used in Ecommerce search engines. It involves these steps: 🗂️ Tagging documents in your index with relevant labels. 🔖 Tagging the user's search query with those same labels. ✳️ Filtering down to documents that match your query. 🔎 Sarching for the most relevant documents within that set. The facets we have are geography, industry, company, etc. But one problem lingered: How do we adapt to change? Every day new orgs come in to existence via formation, mergers, demergers, joint ventures, spin-offs, carve-outs, etc. Any search engine used in finance should be able to identify and understand these events. It should be able to update its own facets. It should be self organizing. We have been working on this issue and we have a solution. If you'd like to learn more, check out the blog.
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