Trey_MattyK

Northwestern’s close road loss at Indiana is a high-value result for FPI because the model is EPA-based and opponent-adjusted, not résumé-based. Indiana entered as a heavy favorite (pre-game FPI gap of roughly 15 points plus home-field advantage of ~3 points implied an expected IU win by ~18). A one-score or two-score home win well below that expectation produces a modest downward adjustment for Indiana and a sizable upward adjustment for Northwestern. FPI never drops the Bayesian priors completely, but a game against a top-5 opponent generates a large amount of new EPA data. Northwestern’s offense moved the ball and scored in the second half against a strong defense; the defense kept it close. That combination typically lifts a mid-30s FPI team 8–12 spots in a single week when the opponent is elite. Updated hybrid ranking impact (BCS-style: AP + Coaches + FPI) Polls will not move until Sunday, so the human components stay the same for now. The FPI component shifts as follows: • Indiana: FPI dips slightly (still clearly a top-8 team). Hybrid rank holds at No. 5. Record improves to 4-0, which will help them in Sunday’s polls. • Northwestern: FPI jumps from 9.3 / No. 33 into the 12–15 range (projected new national rank ~22–26). Hybrid rank rises from the mid-30s into the 25–28 range.