Assume every pattern you find is noise until it survives a process built to kill it.
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Joined January 2017
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Been quietly grinding this account plus 1 more for a month or so. Think it’s time for a payout @Topstep @dotjosh @MichaelPatak
Closed this for 47% gain.
Start up idea @WestJet @AirCanada
Airlines carry cabin crew as fixed cost and then fly half-empty shoulder seasons paying for it.
We’ll contract flight attendants out.
Industry-trained, type-current, insured, on our payroll not yours. Staff the peak, release the trough.
Crew as a variable cost line.
Sold the $WMT Aug 28 102/108 put credit spread for $1.18. Yes, I know earnings are on Aug 20th.
A flat expectancy looks like nothing. That’s why it gets ignored.
Win rate survives on variance. Expectancy survives cost. One of those collapses when the sample gets real.
Can’t wait for the World Cup to end so my feed can go back to real sports, where grown men also cry, but mostly about salary caps.
I built a dashboard that tells me NOT to trade.
It's called the Options Read. One screen every morning at 9:45 ET. It answers two questions in the right order.
Should I own premium today? And only then, which way?
Here's how it works.
Built for how I actually trade. Single long legs, 0DTE to 3DTE, SPY and QQQ.
Each leg shows its real breakeven. And the math nobody wants to hear. A flat day costs a 0DTE leg everything. The 5D leg loses about 11%. The theta bill, printed on the page.