Tejas Subramaniam (@TejasReal) profile picture

AI strategy researcher @BlueDotImpact, previously @Stanford. I tweet about economics, futurism, and philosophy. Views my own.

San Francisco
Joined March 2017
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Tejas Subramaniam retweeted
METR's report on AI acceleration is heavily redacted. Can we learn anything from it? Yes. Using public data, I ask 1. is the acceleration real? (yes) 2. is the acceleration because of AI? (probably) 3. is the acceleration going to continue? (who the fuck knows) 🧵
Replying to @METR_Evals
We submitted a ~100-page full report on our assessment to Anthropic. For the public version, Anthropic redacted a majority of the evidence we found most informative. As a consequence, the public must rely on our judgment more than we consider ideal.
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Tejas Subramaniam retweeted
I used an AI for two hours and found a zero-day that would let a nation-state hack any server running stock Ubuntu. It was patched this morning. CVE-2026-109518. 🧵
🚨 BREAKING: A flaw in APT, the tool that installs software on Debian Linux, lets an attacker on the network tamper with a package after it passes verification and run code as root. The bug, CVE-2026-109518, sits in resumed HTTP downloads. APT can merge two different downloads when a redirect gives them the same address, and a man-in-the-middle can then alter the file after its check. Debian fixed it in apt 3.0.4, shipped to Debian 13 security updates on 4 November. Users should upgrade now. Per Debian's changelog, the fix is four words long. "Open target files exclusively."
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Tejas Subramaniam retweeted
Conversation with someone from a chip startup on a recent flight: Me: oh I'm at Epoch. We make basically every graph on the trajectory of AI, except one. Them: Oh! Yeah, I've heard of you. You make that graph with how long of a task AI can do over time!
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Tejas Subramaniam retweeted
the "curse of cryonics" is when a problem is both weird and very important, but it's sitting right next to other weird problems that are even more important, so everyone who's able to notice weird problems works on something else instead.
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Tejas Subramaniam retweeted
Charlie's analysis is right but he is nicer than I am - I found myself viscerally angry at multiple points reading this bill. There are some good and sensible parts, but overall this legislation is not remotely close to meeting the moment and I overall think passing it would make us less protected against catastrophic risks than we are under existing law. Two parts that stand out as particularly infuriating when taken together: 1. Some of the preemption provisions are remarkably far reaching and consequential, and in addition to preempting legislation like SB 53 would also remove general powers that state courts have to enjoin defendants and protect the public. Most outrageously, it has a provision that looks like its intended to stops states from enforcing laws or judicial decrees that "suspend the development, deployment, or internal use of an AI model" to protect their citizens from imminent catastrophic harms. Such powers to block and suspend model deployments would then only reside with the federal government. 2. The federal governments powers to restrict the development, deployment, or internal use of a frontier model has to meet an absurdly high bar. First, there needs to be an imminent risk of a catastrophic harm (meaning killing more than 50 people or causing more than a billion dollars in damage). But thats not enough! The agency head needs to make a detailed determination with no deference given to show why no alternative would prevent the imminent catastrophe. Next the court is also explicitly told to consider the harms to the developer and other harms from restricting the model, but no considerations in the other direction. This is absurd! For all of its warning about the potential for AI to cause a catastrophe that kills literally everyone on the planet, Anthropic's proposed federal law likely makes it harder than under existing law for a court to get an order blocking or restricting the development of frontier models? WTF?? There are also a bunch of others things that I would like to see improved - the substantive details of the auditing section and the potential for rule-making on substantive safety standards both come to mind - but I think these stand out as particularly indefensible.
Big news. My take: Anthropic deserves some credit for actually proposing a pretty reasonable AI safety bill; that's more than other frontier labs have done. But they don't deserve *too* much credit, IMO; this bill is weaker than the Trahan-Obernolte FRONTIER Act in some key ways, and since the political momentum has shifted significantly in the direction of safety since FRONTIER was introduced back in July, I think new bills introduced today should ideally go further than FRONTIER was able to go rather than regressing. To be fair to Anthropic, the main places where this bill is significantly weaker than FRONTIER are (a) rulemaking (very strong in FRONTIER, almost nonexistent in Anthropic's bill) and (b) the emergency shutdown authority. Even if you take safety seriously, it might make some sense to dial those authorities back if you didn't trust the executive branch to wield them responsibly, because those are the easiest provisions for a hypothetical President who hypothetically might not like a certain frontier AI company to abuse. There are some improvements over FRONTIER as well; for instance, this bill does specify that auditors are employed on a continuing basis and has better provisions regarding auditor access to information. Happy to see that from Anthropic (although I think their access provision is still a little undercooked and has Fourth Amendment problems). Overall, I think the embedded auditor bills that get introduced in the coming months are going to be significantly better and more ambitious than this, and I hope Anthropic supports those bills instead of opposing anything that treats catastrophic risks like the serious national security issue they are. Still, it's encouraging to see a frontier lab come this far.
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Tejas Subramaniam retweeted
We just discovered almost a million public URLs that OpenAI’s agents left behind when hacking Hugging Face, leaking credentials and attack details that could have allowed anyone who found them to compromise the company. 🧵
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Everybody wants poor countries to grow, but we also want to base policy on credible research. My article in @asteriskmgzn synthesizes five facts from the careful empirical lit on firms in developing countries – which IMO overturns the aid world's focus on small businesses. 🧵/
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Exciting news: in fall I will start my PhD at @berkeleyecon! It was made possible by the generosity of my mentors and countless people helping me in ways that added up. Hoping to make something out of this and do them proud!
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Tejas Subramaniam retweeted
In my latest piece in @Newsweek I outline three policy measures for India that can take its excellent vaccine distribution drive go to the next level. Main goal is speed, and to vaccinate largest number possible before the next wave or new mutations. 1/11 newsweek.com/three-essential…
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Tejas Subramaniam retweeted
"An economic migrant can (on average) expect to be better off in the lower classes of urban India than in the middle class of rural India." New @imf working paper finds that location explains nearly a third of the variation in living standards in India: imf.org/en/Publications/WP/I…
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Tejas Subramaniam retweeted
A thread of remarkable research on the economics of international migration that I've discovered recently. I'll add to this regularly in the days ahead, in no particular order. I'm summarizing frontier findings, not presenting unquestionable truths. Pour a ☕ and join me—>
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1/Let's talk about something actually important for a change: Africa! noahpinion.substack.com/p/al…
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Budget 2021 thread Overall impression: predictable (but clean), business as usual (sigh) budget with not many harmful actions and marginal stimulus. A good budget vis a vis the last however many, but not really a big "Budget of Hope." 1/
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I greatly enjoyed this conversation with @amitvarma on making sense of the Indian education system It is over 3 hours long, but you get a distilled summary of 2 decades of research, policy ideas, NEP, politics, philosophy, federalism, and much more! seenunseen.in/episodes/2020/…
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Tejas Subramaniam retweeted
Why the weird flex @nytimes? Why does telling whatever story require doxxing a blogger with legitimate reasons for being pseudonymous. slatestarcodex.com/2020/06/2…
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Tejas Subramaniam retweeted
🍎Good news from India🍎 One worry has been that India's strict lockdown would lead to more deaths from starvation than from COVID-19. But one positive sign is that by the end of May food supply chains had largely recovered. Thread: [1/N]
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Tejas Subramaniam retweeted
(Thread) I looked at data from 627 districts and over 1.5 lakh health facilities for the last few months and years, and what I found was very worrying. Medical services declined across the board in March 2020.
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Tejas Subramaniam retweeted
In my heart I still expect that the internet is the funny varied entertaining place it was a couple months ago, so I keep turning to it when I want to to relax. But it is gone and has been replaced by the corona internet which is bleak and terrifying. I want it back.
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