Alani

[REVISED] Projection xG and xGC Gameweek 10⚽️🥅 Previously, the projections relied purely on a bidirectional model based on historical xG and xGC, team attacking power, and opponent concession rates, with consideration for undefined xG and xGC Delta. However, some figures looked disconnected from recent form, especially against specific opponents, thanks to @norway_fpl for pointing this out! The goal is to keep the model purely stats-driven. Whether it's a non-Big 6 side like Bournemouth, Brighton, or Ipswich, or a title contender like City or Arsenal, every team holds an equal position in the projection. To create better balance, Bidirectional Venue Sourcing remains the base calculation, but I've introduced a dedicated 30% weightage for xG and xGC Delta. The model now balances underlying expected performance (xG/90 or xGC/90 at 70%) with actual finishing and conversion form (GF/game or GA/game at 30%). For example, this adjusts Leeds United's GW10 home fixture against Tottenham to a realistic 1.35 xG (down from 1.91 xG), aligning perfectly with Leeds' 1.50 home goal-scoring average and Spurs' 1.25 away defensive rating. This is still Beta version, feel free to share your feedback on this update! Later on, will feature this on my FPL Datastudio #fpl #FPLCommunity #ykfpl