Not financial/legal advice. Not affiliated with @kalshi (or anyone). RTs are not endorsements. Opinions are my own. ✊🏻✊🏻🚪
Joined April 2026
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A prediction market saying a life-saving treatment has only a 6% chance of FDA approval doesn’t just move money.
Some clinical trial participants will inevitably question whether staying enrolled is worth it after seeing odds like that.
‘Markets’ shouldn’t undermine the very research they’re supposedly predicting. Sign the petition in link.
change.org/p/ban-prediction-…
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Putting aside the optics of a single-commissioner agency issuing rules midstream to align with its own litigation position, these rules will undoubtedly face strong APA challenges on substantive and procedural grounds, including whether the CFTC exceeded its statutory authority.
“The New York Attorney General’s office argues that even if the CFTC finalizes the regulation, it cannot expand the definition of swaps beyond what Congress authorized under the Commodity Exchange Act.” nextpredict.io/market-news/l…
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This is @ChairmanSelig’s last chance to get through the revolving door to a partner at [unnamed law firm] before it hits him @VictorRocha1
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most prediction markets are illiquid enough that building credibility to your lie is quite cheap. military/intelligence institutions already do this for attack date markets for example
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Prediction markets aren’t probabilities. If I enact a network of bettors on a candidate, this doesn’t mean the candidates probabilities have increased. I have simply astroturfed the public perception. And that is what the political prediction markets have devolved into. Pretending otherwise is intellectually dishonest or downright deceptive.
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“The CFTC’s recent rulemaking is emerging as an issue in prediction-market cases around the country, as Kalshi and other exchanges urge courts to delay decisions pending rulemaking or rely on the agency’s evolving definitions to support their jurisdictional arguments.”
Heads: “We are replacing broken polling with real-time truth.”
Tails: “Read a math book, a 1% outcome happens 1% of the time!”
Pick a lane. Kalshi is either an authoritative forecasting tool or a sportsbook with some disclaimers. I’ve never seen a business model where you get to pick according to how you feel that day. 🇧🇷
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Is it a violation of journalistic ethics for a journalist to wager on a prediction market on a race they are covering? My answer is, absolutely yes.
91%Yes
9%No
211 votes • Final results
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This is how you boil a frog. Pay off enough big accounts so the normalization feels organic until the whole timeline turns into paid-for noise.
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Big tobacco next please!
The NBA is formally stepping into the prediction markets ecosystem.
The league announced agreements Monday morning with Kalshi and Polymarket that will allow the companies to use official league data and intellectual property and give the league control over what trades the companies are allowed to offer.
nyti.ms/4smgsfG
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New York tells Judge Schofield the CFTC’s Interim Final Rule carving sportsbook bets out of the “swap” definition is procedurally flawed, lacks evidentiary value, relies on distinctions untethered to the CEA, has major-questions problems, and doesn’t resolve Wire Act violations.
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Game’s gone
Was a good run but it’s forever tainted
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The more the news media reports on prediction markets, the more they’ll suffer from Goodhart’s law
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Been saying this for 3 years now
On electoral prediction markets, bets can be placed in an attempt to influence the results, not just predict them. Here's what to know bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
