Hunting small caps | Turnarounds | Capital cycle | Special sits. Professionally managing capital.✍️ Deep dives • Articles • Portfolio upd. Not investment advice
Joined November 2023
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📌Main content in The Value Pond (link bio & answer)
Full thesis published:
🇬🇧ABF (Retail-FoodCo)🔒
🇬🇧Dunelm (Retail)🔒
🇫🇷Foraco (Drilling serv.)🔓
🇭🇺WizzAir(Airlines)🔓
🇫🇷Forvia(Autoparts)🔓
🇺🇸 Dauch (Autoparts)🔓
🇩🇪Bayer AG (Agro-Pharma)🔓
📊....thesis updates, portfolio disclosure & more.
$FRVIA $BAYN $BAYRY $WIZZ $WIZZ.L
$WZZZY $FAR $FAR.TO $DNLM $DNLM.L $DCH
✅Bayer delivered a solid Q3. Pharma showed strength in both volume and pricing, driving an improved FY outlook on FCF and debt.
🎯Closer than ever to closing the turnaround chapter, the one defined by litigation and by sustaining the pharma portfolio. (Not there yet: all eyes on a settlement)
For me there's a second chapter, and it's Crop Science.
$BAYN $BAYRY
The Value Pond retweeted
✅Bayer delivered a solid Q3. Pharma showed strength in both volume and pricing, driving an improved FY outlook on FCF and debt.
🎯Closer than ever to closing the turnaround chapter, the one defined by litigation and by sustaining the pharma portfolio. (Not there yet: all eyes on a settlement)
For me there's a second chapter, and it's Crop Science.
$BAYN $BAYRY
✅Bayer delivered a solid Q3. Pharma showed strength in both volume and pricing, driving an improved FY outlook on FCF and debt.
🎯Closer than ever to closing the turnaround chapter, the one defined by litigation and by sustaining the pharma portfolio. (Not there yet: all eyes on a settlement)
For me there's a second chapter, and it's Crop Science.
$BAYN $BAYRY
Forvia Q3 FY26 mostly on track.
Sales €5,079m (-0.6% org/+1.0% rep) (+100 bps over Global OEM). Full-Year FY26 Guidance Confirmed. Divestiture of interiors on Q4.
$FRVIA
The Value Pond retweeted
Grifols (US $GRFS, Spanish: GRLS) just reported strong results, confirming the inflection point. I’ve been adding to my GRF position ahead of the Q3 results because I see it as one of the best setups over the next 12 months, with a €15–€20 target after it traded below €10 last week. I'm even more optimistic in the medium term, targeting €30 by 2030.
GRF has 12% short interest, reflecting concerns about revenue slowdown and margin erosion driven by competition and the disruption from Argenx. Short sellers believe the business was deteriorating while carrying high debt.
However, I’m very confident the slowdown was temporary, driven by foreign exchange, albumin’s impact in China, and the end of the QuidelOrtho partnership—all temporary factors that had largely dissipated by Q2 2026. As I expected, Q3 is very strong and set the stage for an even stronger Q4. Q3 showed reacceleration across all key metrics, confirming that this is a high-quality company that should not trade at a single-digit P/E and 7x EBITDA when it used to trade at 15x.
This is my top equity position. You can check out the investment case in my latest video (in Spanish).
min 1.05
youtu.be/QZbkR1tAVIg?si=nNfy…
There and Back Again.
Foraco Q3 FY26 Snapshot
Sales $86.2m (+21.4%). EBITDA $15.4m (+8.2%), Margin 17.8% (-220bps). Net Profit $4.4m (-18.9%). Rig utilization 53% (vs 35% in Q3 25).
Despite the volumes and the rig utilisation, cost inflation and mobilisation costs on new contracts are still keeping the improvement from showing up at the bottom line.
$FAR $FAR.TO
The Value Pond retweeted
Foraco Q3 FY26 Snapshot
Sales $86.2m (+21.4%). EBITDA $15.4m (+8.2%), Margin 17.8% (-220bps). Net Profit $4.4m (-18.9%). Rig utilization 53% (vs 35% in Q3 25).
Despite the volumes and the rig utilisation, cost inflation and mobilisation costs on new contracts are still keeping the improvement from showing up at the bottom line.
$FAR $FAR.TO
Foraco Q3 FY26 Snapshot
Sales $86.2m (+21.4%). EBITDA $15.4m (+8.2%), Margin 17.8% (-220bps). Net Profit $4.4m (-18.9%). Rig utilization 53% (vs 35% in Q3 25).
Despite the volumes and the rig utilisation, cost inflation and mobilisation costs on new contracts are still keeping the improvement from showing up at the bottom line.
$FAR $FAR.TO
The Value Pond retweeted
As always, worth your time. @JRuizRuiz letter gives you a brilliant piece of context: if you'd spent the last six months in a cave, this alone would tell you where today's friction points are with very good judgement and balance.
Energía, deuda e inteligencia artificial...
¿Hacia qué crisis vamos?
Ya está disponible nuestra Carta a los Inversores del 3T26, firmada por @JRuizRuiz, director de Inversiones de Horos. 📩
«Separarse del rebaño puede resultar incómodo, pero esa incomodidad es parte inherente de una forma de invertir que busca aprovechar, con visión de largo plazo, las ineficiencias del mercado.»
🔗 Léela aquí
horosam.com/carta-a-los-inve…
As always, worth your time. @JRuizRuiz letter gives you a brilliant piece of context: if you'd spent the last six months in a cave, this alone would tell you where today's friction points are with very good judgement and balance.
Energía, deuda e inteligencia artificial...
¿Hacia qué crisis vamos?
Ya está disponible nuestra Carta a los Inversores del 3T26, firmada por @JRuizRuiz, director de Inversiones de Horos. 📩
«Separarse del rebaño puede resultar incómodo, pero esa incomodidad es parte inherente de una forma de invertir que busca aprovechar, con visión de largo plazo, las ineficiencias del mercado.»
🔗 Léela aquí
horosam.com/carta-a-los-inve…
Rounding 75% of Bolloré and ~62% of indirect ownership of own shares. $BOL
The Value Pond retweeted
🔔 BOLLORE SE (2)
📈 Achats
👤 Bolloré Participations SE (Administrateur de Bolloré SE) : 5 524 738 (20 366 128 €)
📅 Le 08 octobre
The Value Pond retweeted
Liberty Global avanza en la venta de aproximadamente el 50% de Wyre, su plataforma de fibra en Bélgica, con Ardian, InfraVia y Ontario Teachers en la fase final.
Junto a la venta de torres de VodafoneZiggo por 669 millones de euros, ayudaría a reducir el apalancamiento de Ziggo Group de cara a su OPV en 2027. $LBTYA
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
