MS (Wilson): In a world of returning inflation, it is likely that economic cycles will no longer be able to persist for the extended 8–10-year periods experienced during the roughly 40-year disinflationary boom from 1982 to 2020. Instead, we are now in a period more akin to the post-World War II era, during which economic cycles were driven by higher nominal GDP growth and persistent inflation well above 2%. This implies greater economic volatility and a more reactive monetary-policy environment as inflation ebbs and flows. Perhaps the best evidence that the secular disinflation trend ended with COVID is the long-term chart of Treasury yields. As shown below, it does not require much technical-analysis experience to see how conditions have changed in the bond market. After what was perhaps the greatest secular bull market in Treasury bonds from 1982 to 2020, the reversal is clear, with important implications for all capital markets. This narrative is now widely appreciated, but in our view it is far from over. Based on the well-established 36-year peak-to-trough Kondratieff cycle for bonds, we believe the long-term trend in yields remains higher, with occasional cyclical bond bull markets along the way—much like the period from 1945 to 1982, the prior roughly 36-year secular bear market for bonds.