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Friday PnL report: Trades I took: let’s not get into it. Trades I “almost took”: generational wealth.

Two traders are bullish on the same stock. One buys it. One longs the perp. Price rises 10%. Same result? Depends on leverage, funding paid or received along the way, and whether a dip on the way up hit the perp trader’s liquidation price first. The perp trader could also have taken the other side on a Sunday night.

The perp trader experience. iykyk: Liq’d on the wick, then it hit my target.

China's GDP grew 4.5% in Q3, beating the 4.4% forecast. But the underlying numbers tell a mixed story: Exports: +36.3% (Sep) Factory output: +5.5% (Sep) Retail sales: +1.1% (Sep) Property investment: −20.6% (Jan–Sep) For traders watching copper, oil, and stocks, the big question is whether Beijing will step in with more stimulus. Stronger GDP growth could actually reduce expectations for further stimulus, even as domestic demand remains relatively weak.

Here’s a question for every perp trader: A major headline breaks on Saturday. The market is open, but weekend liquidity is thinner. Do you trade the news immediately or wait for Monday?

Last night, Korea’s index futures traded through a hot US inflation print. Korean shares couldn’t trade for 12 hours. At 9am they caught up: down 5.6% at the open, halted for 20 minutes by lunch, closed down 7.6%. Even Korea’s futures go dark from 6 to 8:45am. Perps don’t have a closing bell.

Sunday, August 15, 1971. 9pm in Washington. Nixon goes on TV and announces the end of the gold standard. New York: closed. London: closed. Tokyo: already trading. It's 10am Monday there. Japan stays open, defending ¥360 per dollar by buying dollars. Over the next two weeks, its foreign exchange reserves increase by roughly $4.5 billion. On August 16, the Nikkei falls 7.68%. Hours later, the Dow rises 32.93 points, its biggest one-day point gain on record at the time. Same announcement, different markets, different economic exposure, very different reactions. Fast forward 55 years to now. The IMF's October 2026 report finds that more than half of trading in a sample of tokenized US equities happens outside regular Wall Street hours. It also estimates that 87–99% of overnight tokenized price movements are reflected in the underlying stocks within the first five minutes of the US market opening. That doesn't establish which market drove the move, but it shows how closely prices outside regular hours are connected to the next opening session. In 1971, traders needed an open market somewhere in the world to react to major news. Today, tokenized assets and perpetual futures are expanding when and where that trading can happen.

Google Trends data shows that 4 of the top 5 regions searching for "perp dex" are in Asia. Here's the top 10 by relative search interest: 1. China 2. South Korea 3. Hong Kong 4. Singapore 5. Ukraine 6. Vietnam 7. Portugal 8. Switzerland 9. Bangladesh 10. Nigeria / Norway (tied) Where are you checking in from?

COIN and MSTR perps were up 2%+ over the weekend before Monday's cash open. Who caught it? Drop your entry.

Washington says no strikes on Iran before the Nov 3 midterms. Brent barely moved. Still around $103, with the blockade in force and tankers in the Gulf still getting hit. Long or short Brent into election day?

3-year Treasury auction yield: September: 4.474% This week: 4.932% Same borrower, same three years, but the Treasury had to pay 46 bp more to borrow. Onchain, Treasuries have mostly been built for yield: buy, hold, collect. Meanwhile, the bond market spent the month trading them. The 10-year gets its turn at 1pm ET.

In 1967, Milton Friedman tried to short $300,000 of sterling. Three Chicago banks refused the trade. At the time, access to FX was largely reserved for banks and clients with a commercial interest. 3 weeks later, Britain devalued the pound by 14.3%. In 1971, CME paid Friedman to make the case for currency futures. They then launched it in May 1972. Being right is only useful if there’s a market where you can express that view. That’s what new derivatives markets unlock: access to trades that were previously hard, restricted, or impossible to make. RWAs are going through that shift now.

This week’s macro setup comes down to bonds, the Fed, and oil. Here’s what matters, and why. 🗓️ Wed, 1pm ET: US 10Y Treasury auction The US is borrowing $39B. The last auction cleared at 4.834%, the highest since 2007. Weak demand could push yields and borrowing costs higher. 🗓️ Wed, 2pm ET: Fed minutes Notes from September’s meeting, when the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023. But they predate Friday’s weak jobs report, so the 1pm auction gives markets a fresher read. 🗓️ Thu, 1pm ET: US 30Y Treasury auction The 30-year yield is around 5.6%. The auction shows how much investors want to be paid to lend to the US for three decades. 🗓️ Weekend: oil Before the war, about 20% of global oil consumption moved through the Strait of Hormuz. Three weekends ago, fresh attacks around the strait and Saudi infrastructure were followed by a 3% jump in Brent when markets reopened Monday. Macro doesn’t keep market hours, neither should RWA trading.

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