Tim Swinyard

The Tories are proposing to build an integrated UK air and missile defence network. It’s long overdue. They did nothing about it in the 14 years they were in power.  Now they promise a £10 billion plan — but only over 10 years. So not exactly a rapid build out.  But better than the government. Which called missile defence a priority — then allocated under £800m over four years to it.  This despite the fact a Commons defence committee recently reported we have ‘next to nothing’ when it comes to missile defence. The Tory plan is to start with protection for critical infrastructure and military bases then build out to protect the UK mainland and British bases overseas.  A basic capability would be in place in a first Tory term, if there ever is one, with stockpiles and coverage expanded over the following five years.  A few of the pieces are already in place. Sky Sabre is mobile medium-range interceptor that’s already been deployed to Poland and the Middle East.  Type 45 destroyers carry Sea Viper interceptors for coastal and fleet defence.  RAF jets can be scrambled to take out drones and some missiles — though that’s expensive and they can’t deal with ballistic missiles.  But none of that comes anywhere near a standing national defence against longer-range ballistic missiles, the biggest threat. Nor do we have the necessary stocks of interceptors and counter-drone weapons.  Some media comment has likened the Tory plan to Israel’s fabled Iron Dome missile defence. But that’s misleading.  A truly national missile defence would cost a lot more than £10 billion. And Israel’s Iron Dome is much misunderstood. It is not one but three defensive systems for different missile threats.  The Iron Dome itself has been in operation since 2011 and takes out short-range rockets, artillery and some drones from the likes of Hamas and Hezbollah. Britain doesn’t face such a threat.  Then there’s David’s Sling which deals with mid-range missiles: cruise missiles, aircraft, drones and tactical ballistic missiles, out to roughly 100–300 km, with the hit-to-kill Stunner missile. And at the very top — most relevant to the UK but the least discussed here — is Arrow 2 and Arrow 3, sculpted by Israel Aerospace Industries, with US involvement.  This is the system that takes on medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Arrow 2 works inside the atmosphere; Arrow 3 intercepts outside it, above 100 km, at ranges out to about 2,400 km.  This should be of most interest to Britain. Because threats to us are much more likely to be from longer-range missiles.  It is significant, though apparently unnoticed by the Tories, that Germany signed up for Arrow 3 in 2023, the first time the Israelis have exported the system under licence.  The first deployment was made south of Berlin last December. A second site has been announced in Bavaria.  Germany is planning full operational readiness with sites in the north, centre and south of the country by 2030. Not in 10 years time, as the Tories envisage.  Just as significant, the cost of the first Arrow 3 deployment was under £3 billion. Total Arrow spend including interceptors and launchers will be under £5 billion.  Which rather makes it a mystery why nobody in Labour or the Tories is saying we should follow suit — buy off the shelf the most sophisticated, tried and tested missile defence system on the planet.  Germany will is acquiring Arrow 3 as part of the European Sky Shield Initiative. Which you’d think might appeal to Europhile Labour. The cost should appeal to the Tories.  At least the Tories have put missile defence on the agenda. Labour, it’s reported this morning in The Times, is still dithering about how to get defence spending to 3% of GDP — and looks like postponing the matter for another year.  In the current dangerous geopolitical climate that is close to a dereliction of duty which shames the Burnham government. You wonder how John Healey can even look at himself in the mirror

Labour was elected in July 2024 with an overriding promise to accelerate economic growth. We now now have its record for its first full calendar year, 2025: Q1: 0.7% Q2: 0.2% Q3: 0.1% Q4: 0.1% So, far from stimulating the economy, the dead hand of Starmer-Reeves has knocked the stuffing out of it. They took a good start to the year and squandered it with reckless tax, spend and borrow (none of which was in their manifesto). Our giant services sector — 2nd biggest in the world — is stagnating. Construction is in its worst state for over 4 years, with output down 2% in Q4 (which is why Labour’s promise of 1.5m new houses by 2029 is already broken). As for GDP per capita, which was very popular among X tweeters under the Tories but not so much now (I wonder why), it fell for the second quarter in a row — so we’re effectively in a GDP/capita recession.