Beware of the overconfidence that can come from early success, including progress mentally/emotionally. You need large samples to prove success or progress. Extrapolating early success/progress into the future is a distraction from the focus you need to make it actually happen.

If you're thinking negatively/pessimistically about what you can't do, you're overconfident. That's right, overconfident. You THINK you know what you can't do, but you can't know that yet. Only after you've given full effort can't you determine you capacity, not before.

If you've been standing on a diving board too long, unable to jump in, sometimes the right answer is for someone to push you in. Risk aversion can create such paralysis that it becomes a very hard cycle to break. You may need to exaggerate the correction before dialing it back.

Intuition can only be developed through years of experience. Knowledge and raw intelligence aren't enough. If you've been trading or playing poker for <1 year, don't trust your intuitive sense of what's right, your emotions are manipulating you. Quick 🧵