Alex DeWolf

Rising oil prices are bad for your wallet, but historically? They're actually great for your portfolio. Everyone assumes that when oil spikes, the stock market tanks. But data since 1986 shows the exact opposite. The S&P 500 averages a higher return (13.1%) and a higher win rate (84%) in years when oil goes UP, compared to years when oil goes DOWN. Just stay invested.

My rental portfolio sat flat at around $3,000 a month in net cash flow for most of 2025. Replacing the property management and moving the leases to market rate by January 2026 took it above $14,000 a month. That shift pushed the annual net cash flow to $70,200, a 12.02% yield on the $584,000 portfolio shown in NetWorthNav. Still uncomfortable to admit: the total equity is only $199,000, so the cash yield is good but equity growth remains limited. What would your net cash flow be if you increased rent by 10% on all four properties?

$UBER 7.8% move expected, reports tomorrow before the open. It fell after 7 of its last 8 reports and the stock dropped after each of the 5 earnings where it met or beat the $0.90 EPS estimate. My call: $UBER closes lower after the report.

$AMD options expect an 8.2% move either way when it reports tonight, after the close. The stock fell after 5 of its last 8 reports. My call: $AMD closes lower after the report. Earnings season: what the options expect against what really happens.

$AMD is in the top three most-discussed stocks today after dropping 7.5% to $466.84. With its RSI sitting at 35 after three straight down sessions, how many traders are actually stepping in to buy this dip?

$SHOP reported before the open and trades down 8.6% at $141.13 sixty minutes into the regular session. Since the report, the stock ranged from -18.0% at 07:20 New York time to -7.5% at 09:50. The company reported EPS of $0.49 against $0.46 expected, with the move so far coming in below its average earnings move of 10.3%. Earnings season: the first hours after each report, charted.

Calling a macro peak on bitcoin:native at a Mayer Multiple of 1.06 is completely delusional. Day 927 post-halving looks painful on the lower timeframes, but true cycle tops require historical leverage extensions that do not exist right now. bitcoin:native trades at $77,307.47, hanging just +15% above its 200-week average. On the attached chart, today's stretch of the line is a clear neutral green, nowhere near the red blow-off territory seen at the 2021 peak when price stood +296% above that 200-week floor. Short-term price action remains heavy. bitcoin:native has closed below its 20-day average at $80,288.50 for 13 days in a row, with the 14-day RSI sitting at 38.1 to confirm weak momentum over the trailing 12 months. Yet the 200-day average at $73,157.42 is still rising, and the Mayer Multiple of 1.06 is higher than only 43% of all days since 2014. Into this pullback, I would much rather build spot bitcoin:native exposure than sit in fiat waiting for lower prices. A clean loss of the 200-week average at $67,469 invalidates this entire structure and proves my cycle framework wrong. You are either selling panic into structural support or you fundamentally misunderstand how previous cycle peaks were formed. The Bitcoin cycle clock, every Tuesday.

$ADM closed at $75.77, just 0.3% below its 200-day average after 14 months above it. Dipping 1.5% while staples gained 2.2% looks alarming, but a hair across the line is a warning, not a breakdown. The line to reclaim sits at $75.96.

After the close, $AMD reports earnings with expected EPS of $1.94. Brent oil delivered the biggest overnight move at +1.6%. The last 8 reports for $AMD moved the stock 8.8% on average, with the largest move reaching +18.6% in May 2026.

$UNH had its steepest one-hour drop since at least May 2026, down 5.6% in 62 minutes after-hours, -1.7% on the day with calls to break it up in focus. The S&P 500 fell just 0.1% in the same window. Current holders just watched the day's gain evaporate.

A debt-to-asset ratio of 5.1% tells a much clearer story about structural risk than any single wealth ranking. Everyone looks at the headline net worth of $757,029 on an older snapshot, or the app ranking it in the top 4% globally (96th percentile) and top 25% in the US (75th percentile). This one tells you more: A 5.1% debt-to-asset ratio measures your distance from insolvency regardless of market swings. It proves that the assets supporting that position are almost entirely owned outright rather than funded by fragile leverage. Knowing your exact debt-to-asset ratio changes how you deploy capital. It forces you to stop evaluating new deals by cash flow alone and start measuring how much stress your balance sheet can absorb during a downturn. If you calculate your total liabilities divided by your total assets tonight, does your ratio sit above or below 10%?

Options expect a 12.3% move for $PLTR when it reports tonight, after the close. The stock rose after 5 of its last 8 earnings reports. My call: $PLTR closes higher after the report.

$MRNA jumps 9.4% since being flagged, beating the S&P's 1.1% dip. Flagged on Oct 23 at $202.63, now $221.72, and it remains one of the most-discussed stocks. This could mean traders keep watching if the rally stays on the radar. teapawt.org/TrackNetWorth/status/2…

$AAPL reports tonight, after the close, with the options market expecting a 4.3% move. The stock fell after 6 of its last 8 reports, despite matching or beating its EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports. My call: $AAPL closes lower after the report. Earnings season: what the options expect against what really happens.

$SW’s 1.3% pull‑back to a rising 200 DMA gives it the cleanest bullish bounce of the week. A stock testing its 200‑day moving average is at a key support that often separates a real recovery from a false rally. • $SW – trading at $43.50, just 1.3% above its rising 200 DMA ($42.94) after a 22% premium three months ago, with 6‑month momentum beating 79% of the index. • $SYY – sitting at $82.75, 4.0% over its 200 DMA ($79.54) and outpacing 70% of the market on 6‑month momentum. • $FTNT – at $130.09, 1.1% above its 200 DMA ($128.65) and crushing 99% of the S&P on 6‑month momentum. The attached chart shows $SW’s price climbing back to the dashed rising 200‑day line after a steep three‑month run, while $SYY and $FTNT hover near their own 200‑day supports. $SW is the cleanest setup of the three: it is wrong on a daily close below $42.94, just 1.3% under the current price. I expect $SW to hold its 200 DMA and will report back Monday on whether it stayed above $42.94.

Money left Communication and went into Healthcare this week. • Healthcare $XLV – in OUT IN FRONT with strength 107.09 and momentum 104.41, tail pointing up and right, so it’s outpacing the S&P and accelerating. • Real Estate $XLRE – MAJOR QUADRANT CROSS from CATCHING UP to OUT IN FRONT, strength 100.10, momentum 104.79, tail up and right, gaining on the S&P and speeding up. • Communication $XLC – stuck in LEFT BEHIND with strength 92.60, momentum 95.07, tail down and left, falling further behind the S&P and slowing. The chart shows the arrows for Healthcare and Real Estate shooting up‑right in OUT IN FRONT, while Communication’s arrow drags down‑left in LEFT BEHIND. On this map I'd rather be overweight $XLV than hold $XLC, and $XLC curling back into CATCHING UP would prove me wrong. If $XLC ever points up and right, my overweight bias on $XLV would be disproved.

$VRT crowd betting on endless cooling demand is ignoring how fast hyperscaler capex can slow down. A -5.5% drop to $232.50 puts it 14.0% below its 200-day average of $270.44. Infrastructure providers will get squeezed long before capturing peak margins.

$AAPL reports earnings after the close with expected EPS of $1.98. Brent oil saw the biggest overnight move at -2.0%. The stock moved 2.5% on average over its last 8 reports, with the largest move reaching -7.4% in July 2026. The market's day in one card, every weekday morning.

An 18.56% net yield sounds like an outlier until you dismantle the underlying numbers. This specific block carries an excellent yield rating because of basic operational arithmetic rather than aggressive market appreciation. Annual rent collected brings in $30,000. Total expenses sit at $1,600 for the year. Net annual income equals $28,400, sitting against a total property value of $153,000. Dividing $28,400 net income by the $153,000 asset value yields the 18.56% figure directly. The return is simple math. Low holding costs of $1,600 allow almost all gross income to convert into net profit relative to total capital. To evaluate your own properties tonight, take gross annual rent, subtract all real operating costs, and divide the remainder by total asset value. When you calculate that figure for your holdings, is your final percentage capped more by high holding expenses or by inflated asset values?

Oil rose 0.8% while $GLD slid 3.0%, a 3.8-point swing. That spread hints money's stuck between a modest energy lift and a broader risk retreat, with no clear safe-haven rally. What will traders do with that idle cash next week?

I verified this claim and it’s true, big boys are dumping hard. Is retail going to hold the bag or be right to remain invested, again?