$SPY This is looking like Déjà vu 👀 SPY closed this week at 672.38, below the 21 EMA (677) on the weekly chart. A similar setup to the week of March 3, 2025 when price closed at 575.92 beneath its 21 EMA (589). That breakdown led to further selling. History rhyming? 👀 #SPY #SP500 #TechnicalAnalysis

Robinhood ($HOOD) Q3-26: profitable, but growth is slowing The headline numbers were mixed. Revenue came in at $1.42B, missing estimates by 0.8%, with equities driving the shortfall. MAUs missed by 10% and funded accounts came in slightly light. Profitability beat: EBITDA topped estimates by 4.7% and EPS of $0.60 beat by $0.03. EBITDA margin held steady, GAAP margins didn't. EBITDA margin was 56.7%, roughly flat Q/Q and down 150 bps Y/Y. GAAP EBT margin fell 1,030 bps Q/Q to 43.9%, and net margin dropped 1,000 bps to 32.9%. The gap between the adjusted and GAAP lines is worth watching. Balance sheet is solid. Robinhood has $5.8B in cash, $4.9B in credit availability, and $2.2B in notes. Diluted shares fell 0.8% Y/Y, but adjusted EPS was still down 3% Y/Y.

$BA major trend line around $160

$BA blood in the air 🩸 ✈️

$SPY 1h: FOMC setup Where price sits SPY closed at 765.29, inside a very tight band. The 8 and 21 EMAs (764.8) sit just below price. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs (766.7–768.4) sit just above it. All five averages are within about 3.5 points of each other and mostly flat. That usually means compression before a directional move, and the FOMC is the obvious catalyst. How past FOMCs played out on this chart Oct and Dec ‘25 cuts: price rallied into each decision, then sold off afterward (“sell the news”). March ‘26 hold: the selloff continued afterward and bottomed about two weeks later. The April hold came during the recovery rally. June hold: marked a local top (757), followed by a pullback to 730. July hold: a dip into the meeting, then a breakout from 730 to 775. Sept hike to 3.75–4.00%: a sharp knee-jerk drop to 749.6, which was fully reversed within days, leading to the new ATH. The takeaway is that decision days have often been short-term turning points, and the first move has frequently reversed within a few sessions. That’s a pattern on this chart, not a rule. #FOMC

Good morning from China

Fired up the grill tonight and ran into a small liquidity crisis: my little tabletop grill couldn't hold its own. Too short, wobbly legs, zero confidence. So I did what any responsible institution would do. I set it on top of the big grill and declared it "stable." Is it structurally sound? No. Is it held up by sheer willpower and the full faith and credit of a much larger grill underneath? Absolutely. From a distance, though, the steaks look amazing. Fundamentals? Don't ask about the fundamentals. Basically the stock market. Tiny thing on top doing all the sizzling, getting all the credit, and the moment the big grill underneath steps away, everybody's dinner hits the patio. $SPY $QQQ $TQQQ $TSLA $AAPL $META $AMZN $AMD $NVDA $GOOG

Two charts, two different setups (weekly) $NVDA: Bearish lean 🔻 NVDA looks like it is rolling over. Price is $211, about 13% off the $243 high. It has lost the 8 and 21 week EMAs and is pressing on the lower rail of a rising wedge that has been forming since late 2025. Williams %R fell from overbought to -90 in a few weeks, so momentum has flipped hard. Price is sitting in the $206–212 zone, which has 13 touches. If that zone and the 50 EMA ($200) give way, the next real support is $190–198. Below that, the volume profile is thin down to $175 (100 EMA). Bulls need a weekly close back above $215–220 to change the picture. $AAPL: Bullish 🟢 AAPL is the opposite. Price is at all-time highs ($348, high $351.73) with no overhead resistance. The EMAs are stacked cleanly (8 > 21 > 50 > 100 > 200), and the trendline from the April 2025 low is intact. Drawdown is only 3.7%. The trend favors buying dips, with the 21 EMA ($321) as the first spot to watch and $300–309 as major support. Two cautions: price is riding the top of its own rising wedge, and Williams %R is pinned near -8, so a pause or pullback wouldn’t be surprising. But the trend is up until it breaks. Relative strength has rotated. AAPL is leading at highs while NVDA is testing whether its uptrend holds.

Tesla $TSLA is wound up like a spring. After bottoming at $297 in late July, the stock has carved out a steady recovery and spent the last two months grinding sideways between $354 support and $377–384 resistance. Right now every major moving average (8, 21, 50, 100 and 200-day EMAs) is bunched between $367 and $377, with price sitting at $372 in the middle of the pack. That kind of compression rarely lasts. Earnings added fuel. Tesla reported $0.48 per share for Q3, beating estimates of $0.44, and margins rebounded even as profit still fell. The post-report pop wicked up near $390 and right into the descending trendline from the December high, then faded back to close Friday at $372.

$TSLA Coiled tight after earnings, decision point ahead Bullish thesis 🟢 A clean close above the $377–384 resistance zone (14 touches) would also clear the 200-day EMA and break the downtrend line off the $499 December high, a meaningful trend change. 🟢The series of higher lows since July shows buyers consistently stepping in, and the long lower wick near $350 earlier this month was bought hard. 🟢 Fundamentals are stabilizing: the EPS beat follows Q3 deliveries of 486,532, 5.3% above the expected 461,974. 🟢 Above $384, the volume profile thins out until the heavy node near $399, then the big shelf from $400 to $450, leaving room to run. Bearish thesis 🔴 The stock has been rejected at the $377–384 zone repeatedly, and the earnings pop failed right at the descending trendline, a classic lower high. 🔴 Price remains below the 200-day EMA ($377), so the long-term trend hasn't flipped yet. 🔴 Growth is still a question: deliveries were down 2.1% from a year ago, and profit continues to decline. Below $354, volume thins out sharply, opening a path toward $330 and potentially the $297–308 lows, especially if tech keeps selling off into the Fed meeting. Bottom line: $384 on the upside and $354 on the downside. Whichever breaks first likely sets the next big move.

$GOOG weekly: symmetrical triangle hits the apex Since the $404 all-time high in April, GOOG has been coiling inside a symmetrical triangle. Lower highs are pressing down from the top, higher lows are pushing up from the bottom, and the range has squeezed tighter every month. Now we’re out of room: price is sitting right at the apex. Last week may have tipped the hand. GOOG opened at $340, sold off all week, and closed at $317, right on the low of the week. That close also lost the 50-week EMA (~$321) and slipped under the $320–329 shelf that’s been tested eight times. The drawdown from the high is now about -22%. Williams %R is pinned at -99, as oversold as it gets. Symmetrical triangles are neutral until they break, and the trend going in was up. But a close at the lows, right at the apex, is not how bulls want this to resolve. Levels I’m watching: 🔹 $315–319 support: this has to hold. If it does, the wick-and-reclaim setup is still alive 🔻 A weekly close below $315: a confirmed breakdown, with not much volume below until the 100-week EMA near $280. That’s also where the 2026 lows sit 🔺 Back above $329 and the 8/21-week EMAs ($336–340): the breakdown fails, and price likely makes a run at the descending upper line For context, GOOG’s last two big drawdowns were -45% in 2022 and -32% in 2025. This one is already at -22%. Next week’s candle should decide which way the triangle breaks. #GOOG #Alphabet #TechnicalAnalysis #SymmetricalTriangle You called it a symmetrical wedge. Traders usually call this shape (one falling line, one rising line) a symmetrical triangle, so I used that term. Swap it back if you prefer your wording. I also read the triangle lines from the screenshot, so check them against your drawing.

Risk-off creeping in? Here’s what the charts say Start with the cracks. $QQQ ($705) has broken the uptrend line that’s held since April and slipped under its 8, 21, 50 and 100-day EMAs, now leaning on support at $703–706. $SPY ($760) is holding up better but has also lost its short-term averages and is testing $759–762 support after topping out near $781. Meanwhile $VIX has climbed from around 15 to nearly 20, a sign hedging demand is picking up. Cross-asset tells the same story. The dollar ($UUP) is pressing toward its highs, gold ($GLD) has given back almost 30% from its $510 peak, and long bonds ($TLT) are trying to rebound off $76 lows but remain capped by the 100 and 200-day EMAs. The backdrop explains the caution. A surge in gasoline costs pushed consumer prices higher in September, and both headline and core CPI came in above consensus forecasts. After that print, market-implied odds of a 25 basis point Fed hike at the October meeting jumped to nearly 50%. Levels to watch into next week’s Fed decision $759 on $SPY and $703 on $QQQ. Hold them, and this is a healthy reset in an uptrend. Lose them, and the 200-day EMAs ($731 SPY / $684 QQQ) become the next magnets.

$NVDA Weekly and monthly charts: rising wedge cracking at the highs NVDA ran from the April 2025 low (that was a -43% drawdown) to a new all-time high of $243.37 this month. The second half of that run built a textbook rising wedge: steep, converging trendlines, with each new high adding less than the one before. That’s a sign momentum is thinning. October is shaping up as the rejection candle. It opened at $230, tagged $243, and has reversed to $211. That’s right on the lower wedge line, and back below the $222–237 resistance band. The drawdown from the high is already about -14%. Williams %R has rolled over from near the top of its range.

📈 3 Chart Patterns Every Trader Should Know Bull Pennant: A sharp rally, then a tight pause. A breakout above the top line often continues the uptrend. Target = height of the initial move. Bear Pennant: A sharp drop, then a brief consolidation. A break below the bottom line often continues the downtrend. Symmetrical Triangle: Lower highs meet higher lows. It can break either way, so wait for the breakout before you act. ✅ Confirm with volume
✅ Watch for false breakouts
✅ Always use a stop-loss Patterns show probabilities, not guarantees. Manage your risk. 💡 #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #ChartPatterns #StockMarket

$NBIS Major breakdown, but right in the demand zone

$NVDA Levels I'm watching: 
🔹 8-month EMA $207: the first line in the sand, and the monthly uptrend has respected it 
🔻 A monthly close below the wedge: the breakdown targets the base of the pattern at $164–174, which lines up with the 21-month EMA near $180 
🔺 Back above $237: the wedge fails, and new highs come back on the table. For context, NVDA's big drawdowns have been brutal: -57% in 2018, -69% in 2022, and -43% in 2025. Wedge breakdowns on this stock haven't been gentle. The monthly candle still has a week left, so the close matters. Not advice, just the chart. #NVDA #Nvidia #TechnicalAnalysis #RisingWedge

What’s up with all this prop firm news I’m seeing?

Markets at a crossroads ahead of the Fed Inflation is back in the driver’s seat. September CPI rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% over the year, up from 3.4% in August and hotter than the 3.6% economists expected, with gas and fuel oil explaining the headline jump. That has the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting in focus, where policymakers will decide whether to hike again to 4.00–4.25% or hold at the current 3.75–4.00%. The charts show markets bracing for it. $SPY ($760) has slipped below its 8, 21 and 50-day EMAs and is sitting right on support around $759–762, about 3% off its $781 high. $QQQ looks weaker: it’s broken its rising trendline from the April low and is testing $703–706 support, with tech leading the selling. VIX has jumped from the mid-teens to 19.5, still far below March’s 35 spike but clearly waking up. The dollar ($UUP) is grinding near its highs above all its moving averages, and gold has been the casualty. $GLD is down nearly 30% from its $510 blow-off peak and leaning on $363–373 support. Long bonds are the wildcard: $TLT has bounced sharply off October’s $76 low but is still stuck under its 100 and 200-day EMAs. The setup is simple: if SPY’s $759 and QQQ’s $703 levels hold through the Fed, this is a routine pullback. If they break, the 100-day EMA ($755 SPY) and the 200-day ($731 SPY, $684 QQQ) come into play.

Proud dad moment tonight. 🏈 My son came up with not one but two pick-sixes in tonight's game. Two times he read the quarterback, jumped the route, and took it all the way back. I'm not sure my heart has recovered yet. What makes it even sweeter is watching him finally find his spot on this team. He's put in the work, stayed patient, and kept showing up, and tonight it all paid off under the lights. At 15, he's 6'3" and running a 4.9 forty, and he's still growing into himself. This is just the beginning, and I couldn't be prouder to be his dad. Keep working, son. The best is yet to come.