He is?

Cheers

The more we hear things must change they just dont.

"Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is insanity" Einstein.

Where do you want me to start?

I will have to you Dame Tracy or Lady T now :)

Just flip it around

One question stands above everything else this morning: If Treasury yields collapse by nearly 20 basis points and semiconductors still fall almost 7%, what happens if yields start rising again while oil remains above $100? That's the cross-asset tension I'd focus on today.

Netanyahu explicitly directs regime-change efforts At an October 21 military ceremony, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin #Netanyahu said he had directed the IDF, Mossad and security agencies toward overthrowing Iran's government. This is an explicit statement of Israeli objectives, not confirmation that an operation has begun. In reporting published October 22, the White House reiterated that the United States would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. #OOTT

Trading implications — Friday's decision points Market- What I'm watching - S&P futuresWhether Thursday's selling extends, or 7,600–7,650 becomes an initial stabilization area - Nasdaq / SMHA real reclaim of Thursday's breakdown, not simply an oversold bounce - 10-year TreasuryWhether 5% becomes resistance or is decisively recaptured - WTIAcceptance above $100 versus a headline-driven reversal #Gold / GDXWhether miners begin leading bullion #Copper$6.449 hourly pivot and $6.226 downside reference

On currencies, the weakness in #CHF is interesting. But I'd still prioritize AUDJPY and CHFJPY, alongside the dollar, for an indication of whether this is becoming a genuine global carry unwind rather than a US technology correction. A falling #AUDJPY with copper losing technical support would be a more compelling warning about global cyclical risk.

Gold, copper and FX — three useful cross-checks #Gold dipping below $4,000 and recovering is important, although with miners I'd be especially interested in whether $GDX begins outperforming bullion. That would suggest investors are looking beyond forced selling and reassessing operating leverage to gold. #Copper is more concerning as a growth indicator, notwithstanding this morning's rebound. At $6.443, it sits almost precisely on the 100-hour moving average of $6.449 from your feed. A sustained failure there opens the possibility of a test toward $6

We've discussed how energy inflation had already contaminated September CPI and PPI. Today's oil prices increase the chance of further pressure in subsequent data. The Fed is increasingly confronted with an unpleasant combination: weakening sentiment, expensive energy and stubborn inflation expectations. Consider the political dimension. The decision to advertise limits on military action before the midterms may have reduced the credibility of an immediate deterrent. Whether that was deliberate negotiation or a miscalculation remains uncertain, but the oil market is clearly pricing persistent risk.

With Oil there are two different forces operating: - Physical supply risk: Shipping, insurance, regional infrastructure and the possibility of prolonged disruption. - Macroeconomic demand destruction: How much oil above $100, and potentially $115–120 Brent, can the global economy absorb before consumption and growth suffer? This second part is becoming increasingly relevant to equities and bonds.

Oil is becoming the inflation problem that won't disappear WTI crude $101.27 +1.81% Brent crude $114.84 +1.48% Brent–WTI spread $13.57 per barrel. That's a striking premium. It's consistent with the international market placing substantial value on barrels outside the immediate Middle Eastern disruption risk. Renewed concerns over Iran and attacks involving Saudi Arabia are supporting crude, while Brent has reached a five-month high. #OOTT

Today's rebound in yields may help distinguish the two. - The 10-year returning toward 5% is a useful pivot. A sustained move back above that level, with oil still above $100, would create another challenge for high-multiple technology. - However, if yields break lower again while technology continues falling, the market is increasingly pricing deteriorating growth expectations rather than celebrating easier financing conditions.