I research stocks that can 10x in value over 10 years. Start for free with the Asymmetric Investing newsletter or find me on YouTube.
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Joined February 2010
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2025 is in the books, and it was both outstanding and unsatisfying.
If you had told me at the beginning of the year, the Asymmetric Portfolio would more than double the market's performance, I would have taken it.
But after being up 53% early in October, the final results feel unsatisfying.
The good news is, this is a long game. I'm happy to buy some of my favorite stocks 30-50% off their highs, and long-term, these compounding businesses will become compounding stocks.
Thank you to everyone who subscribes, and if you want to see the portfolio's performance, the linked article is free to view.
Bring on 2026!
asymmetric-investing.beehiiv…
The margin question will be the one to watch in 2027.
If no one has pricing power, eventually margins are competed out and who has a positive ROIC in the end?
The best investors are on a constant learning journey.
Buffett started buying "cigar butt" stocks and evolved to a buy-and-hold strategy.
Bill Gurley has made a fortune on internet companies and the internet didn't even exist when he started.
Learn, implement, repeat.
$ANT S-1 is out. I'll start a thread on what I find interesting.
Looks like the ~45% Q/Q growth figure for Q3 is confirmed based on this section.
"From September 30, 2025 to September 30, 2026, TTM revenue increased approximately 1,200% while headcount increased approximately 170%, driving TTM revenue per employee from $1.4 million to over $6.6 million, a reflection of extraordinary talent density and a culture built to compound it."
Nearly half of revenue comes through marketplace or partnerships.
Those marketplaces also cost ~$3 billion. This is essentially distribution costs.
$ANT At least $390 BILLION in spending commitments over the next decade with $MSFT, $GOOG, and $AMZN that's not cancellable. $SPCX deal is also huge, but there are outs!
This is why the revenue growth ramp needs to keep going up FAST!
$ANT S-1 is out. I'll start a thread on what I find interesting.
Looks like the ~45% Q/Q growth figure for Q3 is confirmed based on this section.
"From September 30, 2025 to September 30, 2026, TTM revenue increased approximately 1,200% while headcount increased approximately 170%, driving TTM revenue per employee from $1.4 million to over $6.6 million, a reflection of extraordinary talent density and a culture built to compound it."
Travis Hoium retweeted
No matter how much work you do on a stock, there's a hard lesson we all learn, eventually:
You might be wrong.
Admitting that upfront and if frees you to make mistakes, which will happen anyway.
No matter how much work you do on a stock, there's a hard lesson we all learn, eventually:
You might be wrong.
Admitting that upfront and if frees you to make mistakes, which will happen anyway.
Travis Hoium retweeted
Being an investor isn't a part-time hobby. It permeates every part of your life.
You think about investing when watching a movie.
You think about investing when you're shopping.
You think about investing when you're sleeping.
Just ask my wife, this is a blessing and a curse.
Travis Hoium retweeted
Your best investments won't feel smart, they'll feel dumb in the moment.
Only in hindsight will "obvious" investments seem smart.
Travis Hoium retweeted
Filter out bad companies (no matter the price) from consideration, and you'll increase your odds of success.
$FIX is down because the margin expansion story is over.
HVAC only has so much pricing power and if/when supply and demand go back to normal we could see operating margins cut to historical norms of ~5%.
Filter out bad companies (no matter the price) from consideration, and you'll increase your odds of success.
Travis Hoium retweeted
Writing ~3,000 words supporting (and trying to break) the investment thesis for every stock I own has been the most important change I made in 2023.
Ben Thompson interviewed Craig Moffett today and he articulated something I've been saying and wring about for a while in a great way.
Neocloud revenue, chip revenue, equipment revenue is all meaningless when it comes to the bubble discussion. The only thing that matters is money coming into the system. If the money coming into the system (Anthropic, OpenAI, etc) doesn't justify the Capex, none of the details matter.
