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Vacation towns are about to get decimated.
Start in the 1960s. Somebody's grandparents bought a place like this on a middle class income. One earner, a decent job, a cabin on the water.
Their kids did a little better. Upper middle class, bigger house in the suburbs, and they bought a second home too. That was still normal.
Then look at now. Today the median first time buyer is 40 years old, an all time high, and first timers down to 21% of the market, an all time low.
People are hitting middle age before they close on a starter house, and plenty never do.
So the chain breaks right here. Three generations in, the handoff stops.
Now run it forward. The boomers own a staggering amount of this stuff, and over the next decade it will all come to market in the same window.
Lake houses, beach cottages, ski condos, desert casitas.
The heirs mostly don't want it. Insurance on anything near water, fire or hail has gone vertical. Property taxes reset on transfer in some states and just keep climbing in the others.
The dues on a resort condo run like a car payment and half these towns have cracked down on short term rentals, so the "it pays for itself" math doesn't pencil anymore either.
And an inherited house rarely stays inherited.
Somebody always wants the money instead.
So it gets listed. Usually right after probate clears.
Massive inventory is coming. But buyers aren't.
Get ready for these prices to go to rock bottom.
Recently I've seen a lot of complaints about online listing platforms on here
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Myself included
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Fake accounts, bots, the "buyer" who just needs to hop on a quick video call
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Gotta give credit where credit is due
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Lately it seems like Crexi has totally fixed it and filtered the bots out
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They even added a warning right in the messages (pic below)
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Somebody over there clearly heard the complaints and actually did something about it
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Huge props to their team
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While certain companies respond to criticism with a price increase
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Crexi responded with a better product
One of the biggest lessons I've learned in sales:
Have a low threshold for getting on a plane
In my first year, I was competing for a $20M listing
10 months in, I hadn't closed a single deal or made a dollar
But I crushed the pitch over video, and the seller all but told me the listing was mine
There was just one other broker he had to interview before making a decision
So I sat back and waited for the seller to call me with the good news
That other broker got on a plane and met him in person
Guess who he hired?
The guy who showed up
I'd told myself I couldn't afford the $300 plane ticket
Turns out, saving that $300 cost me an $800,000 commission
That would've been my first paycheck in 10 months
Tough way to learn, but I haven't hesitated to get on a flight since
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