Founders who sold too early, and the math they missed

Leuven
Joined August 2022
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In 1938 two 23-year-olds from Cleveland sold every right to Superman for $130. In 2024 one copy of the comic they were paid for sold for $6 million. In the video below they tell how they made him, decades later, side by side. Then CBS News, December 1975. Listen to what Joe Shuster says their American dream became. Jerry Siegel wrote. Joe Shuster drew. For five years every newspaper syndicate turned them down. In 1938 a comic book publisher finally said yes: $10 a page, 13 pages, all rights. The check line read "Superman, $130." They kept writing and drawing him for nine years and were paid well for it, more than $400,000 between them by one count. In 1947 they sued to get the rights back. They lost, settled for about $94,000, and lost their jobs and their names on the comic. By 1975 Shuster was almost blind and living in near poverty in New York. Siegel was a $7,000-a-year clerk in Los Angeles. That October, with the Superman movie in production, Siegel sent the press a letter putting a curse on it. Two months later Warner gave them $20,000 a year each and put their names back on every Superman story. Worked out. 1938: all rights to Superman, $130. 1975: the pension, $20,000 a year, 37 years later. 2012: the $130 check itself, which DC had thrown in the trash, sold at auction for $160,000. 2024: one copy of Action Comics #1, $6,000,000. That's 46,000 times what they got for the whole character. Invested at 7% a year from 1938, the $130 would be about $44,000 today. The publisher has a case. Every syndicate had passed. It paid for the printing, took the risk on 200,000 copies, and $10 a page was the going rate. Nobody in 1938 knew what a superhero was worth, including the two kids who made him. You're the publisher in 1938. A character everyone rejected for five years just became the biggest hit you've ever had. Do you give the two kids a royalty, or hold them to the contract they signed?
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Simon Leviev told women on Tinder he was the son of a diamond billionaire. Cecilie, a Norwegian woman living in London, ended up with $250,000 in loans in her own name. He has never been charged for it. In the video below: Simon in 2022, then Cecilie and another woman, Pernilla. Listen to who he says he feels bad for. Their first date was on a private jet. Then the story: enemies were tracking him through the spending on his card, and his security team needed him invisible. Could he borrow her card for a while and travel under her name? She said yes. Then came the loans. Pernilla says it took about eight months before money ever came up. By then they both believed they were in danger too. It was American Express that finally told Cecilie: he's a long-time fraudster. Worked out. Claimed: son of a diamond billionaire. On tape: "No, I am not." Cecilie, in her own words: $250,000. Pernilla: $70,000. All victims, per the documentary: about $10 million. Days in prison for what he did to them: 0. Time he did serve: 2 years in Finland for defrauding three other women, and 5 months of a 15-month sentence in Israel for older fraud. Asked in 2022 if he felt bad for them: "I feel bad for whatever happened to myself." And how he pays for the lifestyle: "I bought bitcoin in 2011." February 2025, Dubai, on TikTok: "You will never see me in prison. No more." September 2025: detained in Georgia at Interpol's request. Cecilie's last line in the video is the one that stays: "You can't live life without trust." It's also the exact thing he was counting on. He's flying you around on his jet. One night he says his enemies are tracking his card and asks to use yours for a few weeks. Do you hand it over?
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Tina Turner walked out on Ike in 1976 with 36 cents. In the divorce she asked for one thing: the name he had given her. In 2021 she sold that name, with her music, for a price estimated at over $50 million. In the video below she tells it herself. Listen to what Ike used to tell her about leaving. "He kept all the money from the act. He kept everything. He always said: when you leave, you will leave like you came." She left in Dallas in July 1976 while he slept, running across a freeway to the hotel opposite. She had a Mobil card and 36 cents. In the 1978 divorce, by her account, she let him keep almost everything, including the publishing royalties on songs she had written. She took two cars and the rights to "Tina Turner." Promoters of the tour she walked out on wanted their money, so she played hotels and went on game shows. At 44 she had her first solo No. 1. Worked out. Cash when she left: $0.36. Asked for in the divorce: one name. Name, likeness and catalog, sold in 2021: terms never disclosed, "over $50 million" by industry estimates. Records sold: 10 million certified in the US. 100 million+ per the company that bought her catalog. 200 million per CBS, in this video. So the most quoted number about her career has an error bar of 2x. The only number in her story nobody disputes is the 36 cents. Asked at 79 if there was anything she still wanted: "No. I have everything." You're 36, leaving a violent marriage with 36 cents. Fighting for the house and the royalties could take years. Do you fight, or walk away with just the name?
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In 1938 two 23-year-olds from Cleveland sold every right to Superman for $130. In 2024 one copy of the comic they were paid for sold for $6 million. In the video below they tell how they made him, decades later, side by side. Then CBS News, December 1975. Listen to what Joe Shuster says their American dream became. Jerry Siegel wrote. Joe Shuster drew. For five years every newspaper syndicate turned them down. In 1938 a comic book publisher finally said yes: $10 a page, 13 pages, all rights. The check line read "Superman, $130." They kept writing and drawing him for nine years and were paid well for it, more than $400,000 between them by one count. In 1947 they sued to get the rights back. They lost, settled for about $94,000, and lost their jobs and their names on the comic. By 1975 Shuster was almost blind and living in near poverty in New York. Siegel was a $7,000-a-year clerk in Los Angeles. That October, with the Superman movie in production, Siegel sent the press a letter putting a curse on it. Two months later Warner gave them $20,000 a year each and put their names back on every Superman story. Worked out. 1938: all rights to Superman, $130. 1975: the pension, $20,000 a year, 37 years later. 2012: the $130 check itself, which DC had thrown in the trash, sold at auction for $160,000. 2024: one copy of Action Comics #1, $6,000,000. That's 46,000 times what they got for the whole character. Invested at 7% a year from 1938, the $130 would be about $44,000 today. The publisher has a case. Every syndicate had passed. It paid for the printing, took the risk on 200,000 copies, and $10 a page was the going rate. Nobody in 1938 knew what a superhero was worth, including the two kids who made him. You're the publisher in 1938. A character everyone rejected for five years just became the biggest hit you've ever had. Do you give the two kids a royalty, or hold them to the contract they signed?
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Anna Delvey told New York she had a $60 million trust fund. Her friend Rachel ended up with the $62,000 bill from their trip to Marrakech on her own cards. More than she made in a year. A jury later decided that part wasn't a crime. In the video below: Anna in 2021, asked how she got people to believe she was rich. Then Rachel, in 2019. Listen to what Anna says about $60 million. Spring 2017. An all-expenses-paid trip to Morocco, Anna's treat. Then Anna's cards "mysteriously stopped working." Rachel put hers down as a backup. She flew home first, and the text came: the whole bill was on her cards. Anna kept promising a wire transfer. It never came. Rachel fell behind on rent, and helped police find her. Worked out. Claimed: a $60 million trust fund. Taken, per prosecutors, from banks, hotels and a private-jet company: a little over $250,000. The story was about 240 times bigger than the theft. Rachel's bill: $62,000. May 2019: guilty on eight counts, including grand larceny. Not guilty of defrauding Rachel. Her lawyer: "She made a voluntary choice to put this debt on her credit card." Sentence: 4 to 12 years. She was out in under 4. Anna, 2021: "I'm not a fraudster, so I wouldn't know." And: "I don't regret it personally." Two verdicts. In court, Rachel chose to pay. In life, she paid for trusting a friend. Your friend's cards stop working abroad, and she swears the wire is coming tomorrow. Do you put $62,000 on yours?
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Leonard Cohen wrote "Hallelujah." At 70 he found out his longtime manager had taken about $5 million from his accounts. He had roughly $150,000 left. In the video below he's asked, at 74, whether rebuilding his nest egg mattered to him. Listen to how he corrects the question. "It was presented in much more urgent terms than that. There was a matter of financial survival." He had spent much of the 1990s at a Zen monastery on Mount Baldy. The manager had been handling everything. In 2006 a court ordered her to pay him $9.5 million. She ignored it. Years later a jury convicted her of harassing him. So in 2008, at 73, 15 years after his last tour, he went back on the road. Worked out. Taken, per his lawsuit: about $5,000,000. Left when he found out: about $150,000. Roughly 3 cents of every dollar. Awarded by the court: $9,500,000. Paid by her: she ignored the order. So the headline "Cohen wins $9.5 million" comes with an error bar of 100%. The money that actually came back was the money he earned onstage, in his seventies. His own verdict on the career that saved him: "In hindsight, it seems to be the height of folly to resolve your economic crisis by becoming a folk singer." You're 70. Your savings are gone, and a court says you're owed $9.5 million you'll probably never see. Do you keep suing, or go back to work?
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In 1961 Jim Monaghan traded his half of Domino's to his brother Tom for a used Volkswagen Beetle. Today Domino's is worth about $10 billion. Decades later an interviewer asked Tom if his brother got the better part of that deal. "Yeah," he said. In the video below Tom tells it himself. Listen to what he sees out the window. Tom grew up in an orphanage. His father died when he was 4, on Christmas Eve 1941. At 23 he put everything he had, including his college money, into a failing pizza place in Ypsilanti, Michigan, with his brother Jim. $500 down, $900 borrowed from a credit union. Jim was a mailman. After they signed, he couldn't give up the route. "Too much security." Within months Tom was working seven days a week. One night Jim walked into the shop: "This is your type of thing, not mine. You can have it." Tom had nothing to pay him with. He looked out the window at the delivery car. "You take the Volkswagen. I'll keep making the payments." Worked out. 1961: half of a pizza place that was "just a negative, all kinds of debt and losing," Tom says. Price: a '59 Beetle. 1998: Tom sold his stake for about $1 billion. 2026: Domino's is worth about $10 billion. Jim's half: about $5 billion. Here's the uncomfortable part. On the day Jim made that trade, it was probably the right call. A steady paycheck beat half of a shop that lost money every week. It just turned out to be the wrong side of the next 60 years. Tom later gave most of his fortune away. "At one point I was a billionaire, but I gave all my money away. So now I'm a trillionaire." You're Jim in 1961. Steady mail route, and half of a pizza shop that loses money every week. Do you take the car?
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Cornelius Vanderbilt died in 1877 with $100 million, more money than the U.S. Treasury. In 1973, 120 of his descendants gathered at Vanderbilt University. Not one of them was a millionaire. His great-great-great-grandson is Anderson Cooper. At 14 he was walking up the stairs at home and heard his mother, Gloria Vanderbilt, on the phone: "Well, I'll always be able to make money." "I remember stopping and freezing… and thinking: we are doomed." At 13 he'd been telling her to open a savings account. By 14 he was working as a child model. By 1885 the Commodore's son had more than doubled the fortune, to about $230 million. Then the next generation's wives decided to take over New York society. "And then the spending begins." Worked out. $230 million in 1885. Left alone at a plain 5% a year until 1973: about $17 billion. Split 120 ways: about $140 million each. What the 120 actually had: not one had $1 million. Spending only the 5% would have paid the family $11.5 million a year, in 1885 dollars, forever. Keep this part. A fortune doesn't need a thief. It only needs each generation to spend a little more than it earns, and more heirs to split what's left. Gloria inherited what remained, then made her own money with jeans. Anderson's parents made sure he knew: "There wasn't some pot of gold waiting for me, and I'm glad." The clip is three minutes. Watch him on the stairs, then decide. You have $100 million and one child. How much do you leave them?
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In 1961 Jim Monaghan traded his half of Domino's to his brother Tom for a used Volkswagen Beetle. Today Domino's is worth about $10 billion. Decades later an interviewer asked Tom if his brother got the better part of that deal. "Yeah," he said. In the video below Tom tells it himself. Listen to what he sees out the window. Tom grew up in an orphanage. His father died when he was 4, on Christmas Eve 1941. At 23 he put everything he had, including his college money, into a failing pizza place in Ypsilanti, Michigan, with his brother Jim. $500 down, $900 borrowed from a credit union. Jim was a mailman. After they signed, he couldn't give up the route. "Too much security." Within months Tom was working seven days a week. One night Jim walked into the shop: "This is your type of thing, not mine. You can have it." Tom had nothing to pay him with. He looked out the window at the delivery car. "You take the Volkswagen. I'll keep making the payments." Worked out. 1961: half of a pizza place that was "just a negative, all kinds of debt and losing," Tom says. Price: a '59 Beetle. 1998: Tom sold his stake for about $1 billion. 2026: Domino's is worth about $10 billion. Jim's half: about $5 billion. Here's the uncomfortable part. On the day Jim made that trade, it was probably the right call. A steady paycheck beat half of a shop that lost money every week. It just turned out to be the wrong side of the next 60 years. Tom later gave most of his fortune away. "At one point I was a billionaire, but I gave all my money away. So now I'm a trillionaire." You're Jim in 1961. Steady mail route, and half of a pizza shop that loses money every week. Do you take the car?
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Pick a door. 1, 2 or 3. Remember it. The host, who knows where the car is, opens one of the other doors. A goat. He asks if you want to switch. In 1990 Marilyn vos Savant, listed by Guinness for the highest IQ, told Parade readers: switch. About 10,000 letters came back. Close to 1,000 were signed with Ph.D.'s. One said "You are the goat!" A math professor wrote: "You blew it!" She was right. I ran it: 1,000,000 games. Stay wins 33.3%. Switch wins 66.7%. But watch the video below to the end. The last word goes to the man the puzzle is named after. Monty Hall says he never played it that way on his show. Worked out. Honest host, always opens a goat door and always offers the switch: switching wins 2 in 3. Monty's own version, played at his dining table with a New York Times reporter in 1991: if you picked a goat, he opens your door and you're done. If you picked the car, he offers the switch. Switching wins 0 in 3. He won 8 rounds in a row. A kind host who only offers the switch when you're wrong: switching wins 3 in 3. So the famous answer is 2/3. The honest answer is "anywhere from 0% to 100%, depending on the host." The math was never the hard part. The model was. "If he has the choice whether to allow a switch or not, beware. Caveat emptor. It all depends on his mood." — Monty Hall Your turn: which door did you pick, and did you switch?
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"Catch Me If You Can" has one problem. For most of the years it covers, he was already caught. In the video below: Frank Abagnale on The Tonight Show in 1978, telling his story in his own words. Every few minutes, the record cuts in. Here's the story he told for 50 years. He said: at 16 he ran away from home. He said: he posed as a Pan Am pilot, flew 3 million miles, saw 82 countries. He said: he worked as a pediatrician, supervised seven interns on the night shift, and "I don't like the sight of blood." He said: by 21 he'd cashed $2.5 million in bad checks. Johnny Carson's audience laughed at all of it. So did everyone else for 40 years. Spielberg made it a movie. DiCaprio played him. Then a researcher named Alan Logan went to the New York State Archives. The record: inmate #25367. Great Meadow prison, New York. July 26, 1965, to December 24, 1968. Abagnale was 17 to 20. The record: the federal case over the Pan Am checks. Ten forged checks. Under $1,500. Worked out. Claimed: $2,500,000. Documented: under $1,500. The story is about 1,700 times bigger than the case. The checks were small. The story was the fortune: a bestseller, a Spielberg film, a Broadway musical, decades on the speaking circuit teaching people how not to get fooled. His answer to the book: "not worthy of a comment." The best con in "Catch Me If You Can" wasn't on Pan Am. It was on us. You loved the movie. Does knowing this change it?
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Stu Ungar won the World Series of Poker three times and earned an estimated $30 million at the tables. When he died in a cheap Vegas motel at 45, investigators found $800 in his pocket. In the video below: the night he won his third title in 1997, holding up a photo of his 14-year-old daughter, and then his daughter herself, years later. The night before the final, she told him on the phone: "Daddy, I'm going to disown you if you don't win the tournament." "I'm going to win the tournament," he said, "and it's for you." He won. Then, on camera, he said something champions don't say: "I've neglected my kids… The only one that ever beat me was myself, in my bad habits." And: "I love you, honey, and I'll be seeing you soon." She found out later that he'd had her picture in his pocket the whole tournament. Eighteen months later a cleaning lady found him dead. Friends and fellow gamblers paid for the funeral. Worked out. Estimated career winnings: $30,000,000. Found in his pocket: $800. He kept about 1 dollar of every 37,500 he won. Nobody beat him at the table. The table was never where he lost. It's the night he won in 1997. You get to give him one rule. What is it?
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The richest woman in New York spent her last years being told she was broke. The man telling her was her only son. Brooke Astor gave away close to $200 million to New York. Libraries, museums, parks. In her 100s she told a friend she'd bought some shoes, and "Tony's not going to approve." That friend later said under oath: telling her she couldn't afford a new dress isn't being careful. "That's just being mean." In the video below, ABC tells it from the verdict backward. Watch the grandson when he talks about his father. Tony Marshall ran his mother's money. She paid him a salary, at one point about half a million dollars a year. In 2006 her grandson Philip visited, stayed a little longer than usual, and the nurses started talking. He swore in court papers that she was sleeping "in torn nightgowns on a filthy couch that smells, probably from dog urine." His father called it lies. A judge ordered the couch replaced. Philip didn't take a stranger to court. He took his father. Worked out. The painting she loved most: sold for $10 million. Tony's commission: $2 million. (The jury acquitted him on that count.) The verdict, 2009: guilty on 14 counts, including grand larceny. He was 85. The sentence: one to three years. He served two months and was released on medical parole at 89. Brooke Astor: died in 2007, at 105. Philip came to the trial once. To testify against his father. Your grandmother is being neglected, and the man responsible is your dad. Do you call the lawyer?
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Stu Ungar won the World Series of Poker three times and earned an estimated $30 million at the tables. When he died in a cheap Vegas motel at 45, investigators found $800 in his pocket. In the video below: the night he won his third title in 1997, holding up a photo of his 14-year-old daughter, and then his daughter herself, years later. The night before the final, she told him on the phone: "Daddy, I'm going to disown you if you don't win the tournament." "I'm going to win the tournament," he said, "and it's for you." He won. Then, on camera, he said something champions don't say: "I've neglected my kids… The only one that ever beat me was myself, in my bad habits." And: "I love you, honey, and I'll be seeing you soon." She found out later that he'd had her picture in his pocket the whole tournament. Eighteen months later a cleaning lady found him dead. Friends and fellow gamblers paid for the funeral. Worked out. Estimated career winnings: $30,000,000. Found in his pocket: $800. He kept about 1 dollar of every 37,500 he won. Nobody beat him at the table. The table was never where he lost. It's the night he won in 1997. You get to give him one rule. What is it?
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In 1995 Jeff Bezos asked his parents to put money into his online bookstore. He told them there was a 70% chance they'd lose all of it. They wrote a check for $245,573. In the video below he tells the story himself, in 2001. Listen to his dad's first question. "What's the internet?" He wasn't betting on the company, Bezos says. He was betting on his son. It was a large part of their life savings. Worked out. His odds, by his own account: 30% it works, 70% it's gone. He thought a normal startup had about 10%, so he was already giving himself triple. On those odds, the most likely outcome of their check was zero. What happened instead: Bloomberg estimated in 2018 that the stake could be worth almost $30 billion if they still held it. $245,573 to about $30 billion is roughly 120,000 times the money in 23 years, about 66% a year. On his own 30%, the check's expected value was about $9 billion. Its most likely value was zero. Both numbers were true on the day they signed. "And they did it anyway." Your son asks for a big part of your life savings and tells you himself it's 70% likely to go to zero. Do you write the check?
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In 1995 Jeff Bezos asked his parents to put money into his online bookstore. He told them there was a 70% chance they'd lose all of it. They wrote a check for $245,573. In the video below he tells the story himself, in 2001. Listen to his dad's first question. "What's the internet?" He wasn't betting on the company, Bezos says. He was betting on his son. It was a large part of their life savings. Worked out. His odds, by his own account: 30% it works, 70% it's gone. He thought a normal startup had about 10%, so he was already giving himself triple. On those odds, the most likely outcome of their check was zero. What happened instead: Bloomberg estimated in 2018 that the stake could be worth almost $30 billion if they still held it. $245,573 to about $30 billion is roughly 120,000 times the money in 23 years, about 66% a year. On his own 30%, the check's expected value was about $9 billion. Its most likely value was zero. Both numbers were true on the day they signed. "And they did it anyway." Your son asks for a big part of your life savings and tells you himself it's 70% likely to go to zero. Do you write the check?
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Elizabeth Holmes owes the people Theranos defrauded $452 million. Prosecutors asked that she pay it back at $250 a month after prison. At that rate she's done in about 150,000 years. In the video below: Holmes on CNBC in 2015, then Tyler Shultz, the employee who reported her, on what his own grandfather did. His grandfather was George Shultz, former US Secretary of State and a Theranos board member. Tyler met Holmes in his grandfather's living room, joined the company, and saw that the tests didn't work. He went to his grandfather. "Just move on with your life." A few months later, Holmes came to Thanksgiving dinner. Worked out. Theranos at its peak: valued at $9 billion. Holmes on paper: $4.5 billion. Restitution ordered in 2023: $452 million, owed jointly with her ex-partner Sunny Balwani. Proposed for her: $25 every three months in prison, then $250 a month. $250 × 12 = $3,000 a year. $452 million ÷ $3,000 ≈ 150,000 years. Even after the truth came out, his grandfather kept backing her. "My grandfather has clearly chosen Elizabeth over his grandson. If he's going to make that decision, I'm going to make him do it publicly." Holmes, 2015: "First they think you're crazy, then they fight you, and then all of a sudden you change the world." You sit on the board. Your grandson says the tests don't work. Your star CEO says he's wrong. Who do you believe?
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Warren Buffett says the worst trade of his life cost him $200 billion. It started with 12.5 cents a share. In the video below he tells it himself: the promise, the letter, and "he chiseled me for an eighth." 1964. Seabury Stanton, who ran the textile company Berkshire Hathaway, asked Buffett what price he'd sell his shares at. $11.50. Stanton made him promise. A few weeks later the tender offer arrived: $11.375. Buffett got mad, bought control of the company and fired Stanton. Then he spent 20 years trying to save a textile business that couldn't be saved. Worked out. The gap: $11.50 − $11.375 = $0.125 a share. The famous cost, "$200 billion," is Buffett's own estimate that without the mills Berkshire "would be worth twice as much as it is now." In 2010, twice as much meant another $200 billion or so. Berkshire passed $1 trillion in August 2024. Same rule today: about $1 trillion. So the $200 billion isn't really a cost. It's "×2," and it grows every year Berkshire does. And the ×2 itself has no error bar. There's one Berkshire and one history, and no second company to check it against. It's a guess by the only person who could make it. The only exact number in the story is 12.5 cents. "The genius here thought he could run a textile business," he says. So what did that eighth of a dollar really cost him: $200 billion, $1 trillion, or something else? Give me your number.
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SpaceX went public in June at a $1.77 trillion valuation, the biggest IPO ever. Elon Musk, on stage at the listing: "I gave SpaceX less than a 10% chance of succeeding at all. To be clear." In the video below: that line, then Musk after three failed launches in a row, then the week in December 2008 when he had about a week of cash left. He'd put the $180 million he got from PayPal into SpaceX and Tesla. By Christmas 2008 he had to choose: put in what was left, "or Tesla would die." Worked out. Take his own odds, 10%. Put 100 founders in his shoes, each betting everything on a 10% shot. About 10 make it. About 90 lose it all. Give every winner Musk's result: his stake at the IPO price is roughly $740 billion, about 4,000 times what PayPal paid him. Average across all 100: about 400 times their money. Typical outcome: zero. The IPO is a picture of the average. Nobody lives the average. Each of the 100 lives one path, and nine of those ten paths end at zero. He knew the odds and took them anyway. That's the part that's hard to copy. You're 30 with $180 million. Your own odds are under 10%. How much of it do you put in?
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Charles Barkley says he has won a million dollars in a single trip to Vegas seven times. He has lost a million 25 times. He played $25,000 a hand. In the video below he tells it himself, including what his friends told him when he quit for two years and wanted to go back. "Your gambling ain't getting out of hand. You're just an idiot." Their point: he'd be up $300,000 or $400,000 and refuse to leave. In his head, they weren't going anywhere until he was up a million. That one habit is the whole story. Same game, same casino, different finish line. Worked out. Treat each $25,000 hand as a coin flip the casino wins 50.5% of the time, a 1% edge. His friends' rule, stop at +$300K or −$300K: he goes home up 44% of the time. Average cost of a night: about $36,000. His rule, play until +$1M or −$1M: he goes home up 31% of the time. Average cost: about $380,000. Ten times the damage, and the only thing that changed is where he put the finish line. His own count fits: 7 wins out of 32 million-dollar nights is 22%. "You can never break the casino," he says. "They can break you." Vegas, Saturday, 2 a.m. You're up $400,000. Do you walk?
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