Analyste géopolitique Europe centrale/Est, Ukraine. Chercheur associé Euro Créative. Auteur : La guerre hybride en Ukraine, quelles perspectives ? (Ed. Cygne).
Paris, France
Joined December 2019
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Le régime #russie a pendant très longtemps eu une définition assez plastique de son « idéologie », qu’on pourrait résumer à make russia great again, ce qui ne fait pas un programme mais contente tout le monde (qui ne veut pas être grand ? Mais qu’est ce que la grandeur ? Et quel
“The Putin regime’s greatest crisis is a crisis of the future. It doesn’t know where to go or why. And so it prolongs the war as a means of survival,” writes @AndrKolesnikov.
foreignaffairs.com/united-st…
Après avoir tenté d’empêcher les pauvres de voter en les privant de transports publics pour se rendre aux urnes, l’extrême droite brésilienne refuse de reconnaître sa défaite comme en 2022. Il sera plus compliqué de tenter un coup d’état cette fois ci
Flávio Bolsonaro calls for Brazil's election results to be "annulled" after a loss to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. apnews.com/article/brazil-el…
Vucic défait en #serbie ! Gros coup de chapeau aux serbes, notamment les jeunes, qui ont mené seuls depuis deux ans la lutte contre un régime corrompu jusqu’à la moelle. Pour une concession si rapide, la défaite doit être cinglante, comme pour Orban en Hongrie
Prendre un draft pour un accord signé est ne rien comprendre à la façon dont fonctionne la diplomatie, notamment #russie. Qui peut sérieusement croire à un retrait #russie au sud alors que la ligne Surovikin était déjà en construction ? Quand bien même, le corridor demandé par
I confirm the 2023 peace-treaty plan that was leaked to the FT.
What the draft envisaged:
- Russia withdraws its troops from most of the four oblasts it had just declared “annexed.”
- The new line of demarcation runs roughly along the line as of February 24, 2022: Crimea and the part of Donbas that Russia controlled before the full-scale invasion.
- Ukraine recognizes Russian control over Crimea.
- Ukraine grants Russia an unobstructed land corridor to Crimea.
- The ceasefire regime is guaranteed by NATO countries that provide protection for Ukraine.
- Russia begins negotiations with the US on its own security guarantees.
From my side, I’ll add a few insider details that few people know about.
The plan was discussed NOT ONLY by Rodnyansky: the key figure was ABRAMOVICH.
Moreover, Russia was ready to give up the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant as well. And the 300 billion in frozen assets was to go toward rebuilding all of Ukraine, that is, together with the occupied territories.
As for Crimea: we were not required to recognize it as Russian, only to recognize Russia’s control over it. In other words, we acknowledge that right now it is under Russian control (which is how it is). We were also required to adopt a law banning the return of Crimea by military means.
The land corridor to Crimea, a highway and a railway, was to be built at Russia’s expense. The hardest question was how to guard it. That is why the Russians were ready to give up Melitopol, but not Tokmak: they feared we would cut the corridor with artillery.
Zelensky rejected this proposal at the time.
Les trois élections en cours ou à venir dans les prochaines 48h : Brésil, Serbie, Israël, seront des bons baromètres de l’état de la démocratie dans le monde, avec dans chaque pays des candidats assumant ouvertement leur illiberalisme
Coup de chapeau à ces chaînes d’infos qui, par manque d’images chocs ici, ont pris du temps d’antenne pour diffuser la révolte des albanais contre la corruption dans leur pays. Lutte bien trop peu médiatisée, alors que les albanais défendent dans la rue les valeurs européennes
Le réseau Starlink/Starshield a enfin été restauré à pleine capacité en #ukraine, améliorant du même coup les taux d’interception et de frappes mi distance. Kyiv a t elle dû faire des concessions à Washington sur la diplomatie ou le ciblage en #russie ?
The most important thing today is that Starlink and Starshield operations have been restored to the speeds we had before the restrictions. The speeds are now where they need to be. The restoration began overnight, and by this morning, speeds were already sufficient. This matters: for our frontline logistics, for defending Ukraine against jet-powered “shaheds.”
I thank all Americans and all our partners who took this seriously and truly helped – members of Congress, senators, all the media, the State Department, and the President. Protecting lives matters.
L’amitié sans limite s’arrête au tiroir caisse entre #russie et Chine
Turkmenistan gets better prices for the gas it sells to China than Russia does, according to @SergeyVakulenk0.
carnegieendowment.org/russia…
Au delà du rôle de Melania, les conditions de mise en place du cessez le feu seront à suivre de près : qui ravitaillera les civils et comment? Pourront ils partir s’ils le souhaitent, et via quel corridor (qui déminera?) ? Pourront ils aller où ils veulent : #russie ou #ukraine ?
⚡️️ Breaking: Russia, Ukraine agree to Oleshky ceasefire mediated by Melania Trump, White House says.
The move comes amid increased attention to the worsening humanitarian crisis in the city, which over the past weeks has gained international attention, including from Pope Leo XIV.
kyivindependent.com/breaking…
Cela semble une évidence, et c’est la raison pour laquelle il ne faut pas attendre de percée diplomatique entre #ukraine et #russie, notamment lors de l’entrevue trilatérale annoncée aux Émirats, avant au moins le printemps 2027
❗️Officials in regular contact with President Vladimir Putin have told Vlast that the Russian leader increasingly believes military escalation and intensified air attacks will force Kyiv to make concessions in the coming months.
“Our attacks are far more painful for Ukraine than their strikes are for us,” said a senior government official. “Everything could be over by winter; they won’t hold out. They will have to make concessions.”
Link – see thread ⬇️
Le fait diplomatique du jour : une rencontre des ministres des principaux pays européens et du moyen orient à Ankara + Mark Carney en Turquie hier. Les puissances moyennes cherchent à redéfinir un équilibre stratégique en dehors du parapluie américain, désormais inexistant
“Fransa, Avrupalı ve bölgesel ortaklarıyla 🇩🇪🇬🇧🇹🇷🇪🇬🇸🇦🇵🇰 birlikte bugün İstanbul’da ilk kez düzenlenecek E3/R4 toplantısına katılacak.
Amaç: Hepimizi etkileyen bölgesel krizler karşısında Avrupalılar ile Orta Doğu ülkeleri arasındaki eşgüdümü güçlendirmek”.
@francediplo Sözcülüğü
Vol massif d’avions de chasse aux frontières de l’Iran, déclarations belliqueuses envers le Hezbollah et menace de nouvelles opérations au Liban… dans une campagne électorale au couteau, Netanyahu multiplie les tensions… au point de relancer des opérations d’envergure ?
🚨🇮🇱🇮🇷Israeli air force conducted on Monday a massive "power projection" operation near Iran's border. My story on @axios
axios.com/2026/10/21/israel-…
Malgré tous les efforts déployés, la politique de détente envers l’humaniste du Kremlin -#russie tardait malheureusement à produire des résultats probants…
As just announced in the @UN First Committee, Russia’s COSMOS 2612 military satellite has been exhibiting threatening behavior by intentionally maneuvering dangerously close to a commercial satellite, behaviors consistent with on-orbit weapons operations. This violates long-established safety thresholds in low Earth orbit. The United States will continue to secure and defend American vital national security interests in, from, and to space.
De l’art de faire plaisir à Steve Witkoff et Donald Trump sans rien lâcher, ni donner de véritable espoir sur la suite d’éventuelles discussions. La question centrale du Donbass, tant qu’elle sera pas réglée entre #ukraine et #russie, bloquera tout cessez le feu
Putin-Witkoff talks were “thorough and candid,” Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov tells reporters, but although there were “new approaches” noted from Europe/Kyiv, there was “little useful” in terms of Ukraine. However, Moscow “is willing in principle” to restart trilateral Russia-Ukraine-US talks from mid-November (no such talks since February; previous attempt to restart was scuppered by Kyiv, Ushakov says, during parliamentary elections). Those talks would focus on post-war security guarantees.
Rien de surprenant ici, tout comme la libération d’un otage US en #russie. Le Kremlin donne des gages de bonne volonté qui ne lui coûte rien, espérant que Trump continuera à mettre la pression sur #ukraine, pour obtenir par la diplo ce qu’il n’arrive pas a obtenir militairement
First line out of the Putin-Witkoff meeting on the Russian wires:
- Putin thanks Trump for his interest in Ukraine peace process, says he’s interested in what was discussed in Norway;
- Putin restates interest in restoring economic cooperation with the US;
- Putin asks for assessment on Iran and says Russia ready to help find a resolution there.
(First image of Putin-Witkoff meeting in St Petersburg from a Kremlin pool reporter who points out that Maxim Oreshkin (who deals with economic policy in the presidential administration) is in the room.)
