notswitzy

Many Monte Carlo #Bitcoin 🟠 simulations circulating on X look rigorous at a glance — thousands of paths, a median line, a nice fan chart. 🔗kevinsvenson.com/dashboard Most of them still skip the same things: - The decay rate is assumed, not estimated - The cycle structure is locked in - There’s no check on whether the model would have covered past reality - Uncertainty around the key choices is never shown A simulation is only as useful as the assumptions you can actually test. Without calibration, a walk-forward check, and some allowance for the process itself changing, you’re mostly just visualizing one set of untested choices. This version closes those gaps: decay is calibrated, the cycle can persist, lengthen, or break, and coverage is checked against history using only data available at the time.Default mixture: median next top ~$214k (Nov 2029), 29th ~$132k, 10th ~$64k. Late 2033 median ~$335k. Is this my prediction? No. It’s a conditional simulation under stated assumptions. 🔗kevinsvenson.com/dashboard