Hunter

Utah V ᗺ⅄∩: The Holy War preview 🔴🔵 Buckle up folks. This is going to be a good one. Stats provided by @PEARatings (PR), @gameonpaper (GP), and @TeamRankings (TR). Some say you can throw stats out the window in this game. I say... yeah, probably... but I'm going to dive in anyways! Key efficiency metrics: Offensive Points/Play (TR): Utah: .492(16th) ᗺ⅄∩: .450(37th) Defensive Points/Play (TR): Utah: .246(15th) ᗺ⅄∩: .290(27th) Offensive EPA/Play (GP): Utah: +.13 (19th) ᗺ⅄∩: +.11 (27th) Defensive EPA/Play (GP): Utah: -.13 (28th) ᗺ⅄∩: -.09 (40th) Offensive Success Rates (GP): Utah: 50.5% (8th) ᗺ⅄∩: 48.0% (25th) Defensive Success Rates (GP): Utah: 39.4% (19th) ᗺ⅄∩: 43.2% (56th) Explosiveness (TR) Offensive Yards/Play: Utah: 6.5 (12th) ᗺ⅄∩: 6.1 (28th) Defensive Yards/Play: Utah: 5.3 (51st) ᗺ⅄∩: 4.5 (16th) Turnover Margin/Game (TR): Utah +.01 (52nd) ᗺ⅄∩: -.04 (97th) Let's break it down. Utah outweighs ᗺ⅄∩ in nearly every meaningful efficiency category with exception to limiting explosive plays in terms of yards/play. It is also worth noting that the 3 game trends are up for Utah and down for ᗺ⅄∩. Though Utah is statistically doing more, the teams are still pretty even. There are a few areas that are worth paying attention to here that may define this game. Utah's offensive success rate v ᗺ⅄∩'s defensive success rate. About 7% is a more significant margin than it would appear. Turnovers have been a big factor in the Holy War, the last 3 games ᗺ⅄∩ has generated 7 turnovers to Utah's 0. This year, ᗺ⅄∩ isn't taking the ball away like they have been in recent years, they haven't turned it over much either. Utah has generated a lot of turnovers, and they have given up turnovers as well. Let's talk playstyles. Utah on offense has largely been great this year. There have been times where Utah gets off schedule, out of sync and really slows down. That can't happen if Utah wants to win this one. ᗺ⅄∩ on offense runs a very simple, but effective scheme. It reminds me of a Ben Johnson-lite offense. They follow a few simple rules, attack numbers, throw off play action, and it has lead to minimal mistakes for their offense. They aren't necessarily trying to "out athlete" defenses (Not saying they don't have athletes, the absolutely do) but they stay within their scheme and wait for defenses to make mistakes, particularly in the play action pass. Utah on defense has been mostly very stingy, but just like the offense, there are a handful of times throughout the game where miscommunications happen, players get off assignment and out of alignment, and offenses make them pay. Utah has been great in the redzone though. It's a bend don't break style, heavy man and blitz defense. It has been yards given up in the middle of the field and complete shut down in the redzone. Utah is currently 5th in opponent red zone scores/game (TR) where ᗺ⅄∩: is 42nd in offensive red zone scores. ᗺ⅄∩ on defense hasn't generate the same turnovers that they have been used to seeing in recent years. They have also struggle in run defense the past few weeks. However, they mix and match coverages and looks very well. This can cause real problems if Utah falls into some of the indecisiveness we have seen this year. Their linebackers are physical, their corners are great in pass coverage. Utah needs to rely on decisive and deceptive plays of their own to keep things in check. Where is this game won or lost for Utah? Offense: Utah has shown the ability to move the ball and score at will. They have also shown moments of sloppy play, indecisiveness and bad execution. If the offense stays on schedule, I don't see ᗺ⅄∩'s offense keeping up. That can change with turnovers and lax play. Keep it clean and Utah wins Defense: As mentioned, the hot cold nature of this defense is a concern. For the most part, Utah has been on the hot side of that thermometer over the last 3 games. It is incredibly important that each position stays on assignment. ᗺ⅄∩ wants to run and throw off play action. Utah's front 4 has been pretty good at stopping the run, ᗺ⅄∩ hasn't been able to generate the ground game they would like as of late. If Utah doesn't consistently need to bring the linebackers up to stop the run, the play action game gets a lot more difficult. Stay on assignment, limit explosive plays, and hopefully generate a turnover or two. So what happens? I would like to believe that Utah is absolutely locked in for every second of this game. Mistakes have improved week over week, but things still aren't perfect. ᗺ⅄∩ is very good at limiting turnovers, their defense hasn't been that way but Utah has been a little turnover prone on both sides of the ball this year. The explosivness let up at times on defense has been a concern all year, it's a concern this weekend as well. ᗺ⅄∩ has not been great at stopping the run as of late, especially with dual threat QB's. Tackling has been a problem for ᗺ⅄∩ whereas Utah's run game has thrived in yards after contact. If Utah keeps things clean (stay on schedule, stay on assignment, and at least go even in the turnover battle) Utah wins outright, around 38-17. This is rarely a clean cut game though. I expect each team to show up in the best way. This is our year though. Utah - 34 ᗺ⅄∩ - 24 #GoUtes

Being at 3 is cool. Having virtually everyone on that reveal show act the way they did about Utah’s spot was…something. In any case. It doesn’t matter, not yet anyways. One week at a time. Lots of football left on the schedule and the Holy War at home this weekend. Excited to unpack it all as the week rolls on! Go Utes!

Drive 9: 4 plays Big get back for Dev right there. Cincy built a little momentum, largely given by Utah but Dev unflinching, gets the job done!

Drive 8: 3 and out after a bad decision to bring the ball out on the kickoff. Again, we are in garbage time, but that’s not an excuse to be lax on the execution.

Also, absolutely no reason to be bringing the ball out.

Drive 7: pick 6 3rd quarter woes continue. Good thing we are in garbage time, right??

Drive 6: Turnover on downs We’re nitpicking here, but let’s keep moving the ball

Drive 5: Punt A dropped pass and a sack killed the drive, unfortunate. Cincy pinned deep though #GoUtes

PICK SIX UUUUUUUU!!!!!!!!!

Drive 4: 6 plays This has been both elite and methodical. Let’s see if we can keep it rolling. Don’t let up, foot on the gas. If we come out and score in the 3rd we will already be in garbage time, no excuse to let up though

Drive 3: 8 plays On schedule ❌ Ahead of schedule ✔️ This offense is currently at a better pace than I had anticipated. Let’s see if we can keep our foot on the gas going forward #GoUtes

Drive 2: 9 plays On schedule 😎

Drive 1: 12 play TD. On Schedule✔️ #UTAHvsUC

Utah V Cincinnati: A Statistical Preview As usual, big thanks to @PEARatings (PR), @TeamRankings (TR), and @gameonpaper (GP) for the numbers! The Bearcats are coming off a massive upset last week, how can Utah avoid the same fate? Let's take a look! Cincy's 3 game trends more or less mirror what they have done on the year, suggesting we more or less know what this team is. We have discussed earlier that Utah's 3 game trend has been down, but last weeks performance against Houston (particularly on defense) suggest a corner has been turned. There are a few things to watch for on Saturday that will tell us if they have, in fact, turned a corner on that mid season slump. Lets take a look at Utah's defense V Cincy's offense. Cincy boasts a .04 (48th PR) and a 46.7% (39th GP) in their offensive success rates, finding most of that success on the ground with .16 EPA/Rush (GP). Utah's defense is actually a perfect counter to what Cincy does well on offense. Utah with a -.08 (11th PR) and a 38.6% (12th GP) success rates, finding their defensive success smothering the run with a -.12 EPA/Rush (11th GP) Cincy doesn't pass the ball particuarly well, Utah can give up yards through the air but doesn't give up many points through the air. The matchup that will determine this game will be Utah's offense V Cincy's defense, particularly in the run game: EPA/Rush (GP) Utah 0-> .17(9th) Cincy D -> .10(102nd) Cincy also has a problem on early downs. They give up a lot of EPA with .09 (91st GP), of which Utah boasts a .13 (27th GP) on early downs. Even worse for Cincy, 3rd and 4th down success ranks 122nd (GP) with a 52.1% while Utah counters with the 10th best 3rd and 4th down success with a 54.9% (GP). I expect Utah to have a good day on the ground. I also expect a pretty high 3rd and 4th down conversion on the day. As we have previously discussed, Utah is looking to turn a corner on a mid season statistical slump, particularly on offense. What will indicate to me that the corner has been turned? An average of no more than 14 plays to find the endzone. This would end up in a .500 PPP or greater. On paper, Cincy doesn't stop what Utah does well. This would be a good game for Utah to show it can eliminate the mistakes that stall drives on offense, on the road no less. I like Utah's chances of doing just this on Saturday. PEARatings has this one at about a 34 - 25 win for Utah. I think Utah gets a garbage time TD and holds Cincy to just 17. 42-17 Utes #GoUtes