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Vanda Insights retweeted
BREAKING: Iran's parliament speaker, lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to Al Jazeera: Ball in US's court, deal to end war possible if US 'adheres to what was previously agreed upon and refrains from actions that undermine trust'
🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/v3dpu9?update=51431…
Vanda Insights retweeted
Rubio's bluntest public assessment yet of the US-Iran negotiations since the war began...
His words on Sunday, Nov 8: talks "haven't been very productive".
Should we be surprised? NO!
Iran is sticking to its 7 preconditions to address the nuclear issue, while the US is focused on nuclear demands and has repeatedly rejected the 7 preconditions.
But Trump keeps saying either there will be a deal or there will be more attacks... same ol' same ol'... He couldn't be seriously thinking there will be a deal on US terms.
But maybe he's realised more attacks will also not gain anything, while leaving a bundle of messy unresolved issues including control of Hormuz, Iran's missile program, regional proxies, and the naval blockade (even if the sanctions and frozen funds issues are parked for the time being).
Sounds like a STALEMATE again.
BREAKING: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says talks with Iran have been highly unproductive and that Iran's demands are "simply not just unacceptable, but in some cases outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic."
"I don't have any progress to report to you," he says.
It is the first time Rubio has said the talks are unproductive since the war began.
Trump said hours earlier it is "highly unlikely" he will order the US back to war "if talks continue to progress."
Vanda Insights retweeted
"Ukraine war risk insurance now 10 times more than Second World War Atlantic convoys"
⚓️Ukraine war risk premiums have reached 20%, around four times tanker war levels and far above Second World War benchmarks
⚓️Black Sea pricing has surged as attacks intensify and some owners challenge orders to call at Romanian and Bulgarian ports
⚓️MEG rates have eased to 7%-9%, with some cover as low as 5%, despite more than 110 claims and estimated payouts of around $2.5bn
lloydslist.com/articles/2026…
🛢️ Crude Watch | Asia Open – 6 Nov 2026
Crude rebounds 3-4% as US-Iran war fears return.
Trump weighs fresh strikes while Tehran offers a nuclear proposal. The bigger question: how would Iran respond, and what happens to Hormuz?
More in tonight's Oil Viewsletter.
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Vanda Insights retweeted
So, the Republicans have taken a battering in the Midterms, the Dems have control of US Congress.
🔻Crude has plunged 8% overnight, presumably on market bets on some sort of quiet on the Iran war front in the near term, at least from the US side. Though there is unpredictability over what Tehran will do next.
But let's just think this through from Trump's PoV and likely actions:
❓️Does the midterms defeat mean he will now be more willing meet Iran midway on its demands and improve the chances of a deal? Especially as Iran can be expected to stick to its demands or even harden its stance! NO!
❗️So, a peace deal in the short term -> Highly Unlikely
That leaves 2 other options for Trump:
-- Let the stalemate continue
-- Renew strikes on Iran
The first has the most (relatively) predictable outcome for him, the second just the opposite!
My view at this point: 80:10:10 chance of stalemate-peace deal- kinetic escalation.
If you're pondering the nexus between today's US midterms (Nov 3), the sudden revival of “intensive” US-Iran negotiations in Doha, and crude plunging 11% from seven-month highs, consider three questions:
⁉️ If there were no midterms, would Washington and Tehran really have pivoted so dramatically from months of stubborn stalemate to a sudden burst of intensive diplomacy?
⁉️ Why is EVERY report of diplomatic “progress” — whether citing US, Iranian or Qatari sources — silent on the one detail that actually matters? How exactly are the two sides proposing to get past their fundamentally conflicting red lines?
And finally --
⁉️ What's more plausible? That Washington sees a burst of diplomatic optimism -- and lower oil prices -- as useful ahead of the midterms? Or that the elections have somehow magically produced a meeting ground between two adversaries stuck for months on opposite sides of a seemingly unbridgeable chasm?
The timing is remarkable. The absence of substance is even more remarkable.
🛢️ Crude Watch | Asia Open – 4 Nov 2026
Crude edges lower as Trump rules out immediate strikes on Iran, but Tehran remains unconvinced by US diplomacy.
Beyond renewed war or a peace deal, could a prolonged stalemate be the overlooked third scenario?
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Our daily morning Crude in Sight report is out! ☕️
vandainsights.com
🛢️ Crude Watch | Asia Open – 3 Nov 2026
Crude steadies after a 7% plunge on US-Iran peace hopes. But Doha talks yielded no breakthrough, and US strikes on Qeshm muddy the picture.
Amid all the talk of "progress", who can explain how the two sides are bridging their red lines?
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🛢️ Crude Watch | Asia Open – 3 Nov 2026
Crude steadies after a 7% plunge on US-Iran peace hopes. But Doha talks yielded no breakthrough, and US strikes on Qeshm muddy the picture.
Amid all the talk of "progress", who can explain how the two sides are bridging their red lines?
Vanda Insights retweeted
If you're pondering the nexus between today's US midterms (Nov 3), the sudden revival of “intensive” US-Iran negotiations in Doha, and crude plunging 11% from seven-month highs, consider three questions:
⁉️ If there were no midterms, would Washington and Tehran really have pivoted so dramatically from months of stubborn stalemate to a sudden burst of intensive diplomacy?
⁉️ Why is EVERY report of diplomatic “progress” — whether citing US, Iranian or Qatari sources — silent on the one detail that actually matters? How exactly are the two sides proposing to get past their fundamentally conflicting red lines?
And finally --
⁉️ What's more plausible? That Washington sees a burst of diplomatic optimism -- and lower oil prices -- as useful ahead of the midterms? Or that the elections have somehow magically produced a meeting ground between two adversaries stuck for months on opposite sides of a seemingly unbridgeable chasm?
The timing is remarkable. The absence of substance is even more remarkable.
Vanda Insights retweeted
🚨The world’s biggest independent oil trader just warned the market could fall hard.
Vitol’s CEO Russell Hardy told ADIPEC Exhibition and Conference today that there is “a lot of fear and risk in the price”.
If the US and Iran reach a deal, he said, the correction could be “quite severe”.
today oil fell about 7% on hopes for those talks.
Why Vitol’s view matters?
it traded about 8m barrels a day of crude and products last year, roughly 1 in every 12 barrels the world uses.
Few people see the physical market from closer.
The takeaways from his speech:
🔹 Demand will be about 3m barrels a day lower by the end of 2026, crushed by high prices
🔹 It will take more than a year to get back to pre-war levels
🔹 Stocks are low and spare refining is thin, so the market is balanced, but only just
🔹 After a quiet Christmas, spring could be “pretty difficult” if refineries in China, the Middle East and Russia stay offline
🔹 Coping isn’t the same as being resilient. Asked if the system can take a bigger shock: “The answer is no.”
That’s 2 risks pulling in opposite directions.
A peace deal takes the fear out of the price quickly.
A failed deal meets empty tanks in spring.
I just published a deep dive on it.
Link 👇
themerchantsnews.substack.co…
Vanda Insights retweeted
Nov 3: It's US midterm election day, and like magic, crude has plunged -- front-month Brent settled at $104.77 on Monday, down nearly 11% from Friday's 7-month-high settle of $117.64.
Optimism over a US-Iran truce is the highest in months.
This could still prove to be a Trump ruse: talk up progress on Iran negotiations to push oil prices lower on election eve, then resume strikes once the vote is over.
Notice what all the upbeat stories — from US, Iranian and Qatari sources — leave out: how Washington and Tehran actually plan to bridge their fundamentally conflicting red lines.
🛢️ Crude Watch | Asia Open – 2 Nov 2026
Crude slides over 2% as Qatar-mediated US-Iran talks revive hopes of peace.
But major differences persist, Netanyahu presses for renewed strikes and Hormuz shipping remains under attack. How durable is the relief rally?
🛢️ Crude Watch | Asia Open – 30 Oct 2026
Crude rebounds as US-Iran war fears eclipse hopes of diplomacy.
A top US commander briefs Trump on military options while Tehran holds back its response to Vance.
Will the Nov 3 midterms mark another turning point for oil?
Vanda Insights retweeted
In answer to @Amena__Bakr's question, what needs to happen to stop this "insane" plan --
A formal, committed return to negotiations.
BUT that would be a temporary reprieve, at best, prolonging the stalemate and delaying the inevitable -- more fighting.
There are irreconcilable red lines on both sides, and either side yielding appears inconceivable.
Vanda Insights retweeted
OUT NOW | ADIPEC 2026 Curtain Raiser – Energy Markets Outlook Annual Report
As the global energy industry gathers for ADIPEC 2026, Gulf Intelligence presents its Energy Markets Outlook Annual Report, drawing on discussions and insights from leading industry experts at the Fujairah Energy Markets Forum.
The report examines the future of energy security, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, shifting global trade flows, infrastructure resilience, supply optionality, and the changing dynamics of oil, gas, shipping, and financial markets.
Click here to view full report:tinyurl.com/y2kdt2z3
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🛢️ Crude Watch | Asia Open – 29 Oct 2026
Crude eases as Washington makes a fresh diplomatic overture to Iran. Tehran signals flexibility on timing, but core differences remain.
Is this a genuine opening or another round of diplomacy under threat of military action?
Vanda Insights retweeted
دولت آمریکا و مشخصا ترامپ- ونس از طریق میانجیها در حال تلاش گسترده و فشرده برای توافق با ایران در روزهای باقی مانده منتهی به انتخابات میان دورهای هستند. آنها میخواهند توافق را خرج انتخابات کنند و اصرار دارند امتیاز هستهای نیز بخشی از توافق پیش از انتخابات باشد که مورد پذیرش تهران نیست. ایران بر لزوم تحقق شروط هفتگانه خود اصرار دارد.
پنجره ۷ روزه پیش و پس از انتخابات آمریکا مهم است. ترامپ به یک شوک مثبت سیاسی پیش از انتخابات نیاز دارد. اگر توافقی در دو روز آینده حاصل نشود، فضا احتمالا در هفته اول بعد از انتخابات به سمت درگیری پیش خواهد رفت.
Vanda Insights retweeted
QATAR-LED MEDIATORS ARE PUSHING IRAN TO ACCEPT NUCLEAR CONCESSIONS TO AVERT MASSIVE U.S.-ISRAELI STRIKES AFTER THE U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS, WITH THE PROPOSAL ALLOWING UN INSPECTORS INTO IRAN’S BOMBED NUCLEAR SITES IN EXCHANGE FOR LIMITED SANCTIONS RELIEF AND ACCESS TO FROZEN FUNDS - AXIOS
