Your hub for elections. 🇺🇸 Detailed maps, live election night coverage, and analysis backed by deeper data. Nonpartisan and independent.
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VoteHub retweeted
Democratic Senate candidate quality could decide control this cycle.
Across all Senate and governor races, the parties roughly even out vs. the generic ballot. But in the competitive Senate races, Democrats are overperforming and favored in 10 of 14.
Across the country, differences between generic ballot and individual statewide race polling roughly average out. But Democrats could stand to gain from their overperformers in competitive districts, write @juanfwulff and @JordanSchwartz.
votehub.com/2026/10/20/in-20…
VoteHub retweeted
Take a look for an early preview of which candidates are expected to be 2026’s biggest over—and under—performers!
Hint: it could decide the Senate.
Across the country, differences between generic ballot and individual statewide race polling roughly average out. But Democrats could stand to gain from their overperformers in competitive districts, write @juanfwulff and @JordanSchwartz.
votehub.com/2026/10/20/in-20…
Across the country, differences between generic ballot and individual statewide race polling roughly average out. But Democrats could stand to gain from their overperformers in competitive districts, write @juanfwulff and @JordanSchwartz.
votehub.com/2026/10/20/in-20…
Iowa U.S. Senate 🌽
As of Oct. 21, 2026
Total votes cast: 119,989 (+30,394)
8.5% of projected final turnout.
Modeled 2026 Vote:
🔵 Josh Turek: 58.3% - 67.3%
🔴 Ashley Hinson: 30.7% - 39.7%
Very few votes have been counted and remaining votes in Iowa will be much more Republican. We rate this race as Tilt R.
Florida Early Vote Tracking ☀️
As of Oct. 21, 2026
Total mail votes: 1,339,338 (+278,033)
18.5% of projected final turnout.
Party Registration:
🔵 Democratic: 558,662 (41.7%)
🔴 Republican: 497,319 (37.1%)
Republicans continue to cut into the Democratic firewall, and should flip it within the next week before building a lead of their own.
NEWS — President Trump will hold a rally in Corinth, Mississippi, on Monday, per @magnoliatribune.
The announcement comes as @Axios reports that Senate Republicans are increasingly concerned about Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith’s re-election bid against Democrat Scott Colom.
Democrats have announced a $1.2 million ad buy supporting Colom.
VoteHub retweeted
Partisanship Score of Texas Early Voters (Days 1-2)
🔵 Voted in 2024: D+5.6
🔵 Didn't Vote in 2024: D+19.4
Perhaps most concerning for Paxton (and Abbott), low propensity voters turning out so far have very, very Democratic profiles.
Texas Early Vote Tracking: Day 2
As of Oct. 21, 2026
Total votes: 1,445,278 (+651,367)
14.9% of projected final turnout.
Modeled 2026 Vote:
🔵 James Talarico: 47.2% - 56.6%
🔴 Ken Paxton: 41.2% - 50.6%
Our Modeled 2026 vote ranges were unchanged from Day 1 to Day 2. VoteHub currently rates the race as Tilt D.
VoteHub retweeted
Percent of TX voters who have already cast ballots, by primary voting history:
🔵 Democrats: 32.0%
🔴 Republicans: 20.7%
🟣 Unclear: 11.7%
Texas Early Vote Tracking: Day 2
As of Oct. 21, 2026
Total votes: 1,445,278 (+651,367)
14.9% of projected final turnout.
Modeled 2026 Vote:
🔵 James Talarico: 47.2% - 56.6%
🔴 Ken Paxton: 41.2% - 50.6%
Our Modeled 2026 vote ranges were unchanged from Day 1 to Day 2. VoteHub currently rates the race as Tilt D.