caleb (@Vulst3) header
caleb (@Vulst3) profile picture

election dork

Joined January 2024
Photo by caleb (@Vulst3)Photo by caleb (@Vulst3)Photo by caleb (@Vulst3)Photo by caleb (@Vulst3)Photo by caleb (@Vulst3)Photo by caleb (@Vulst3)Photo by caleb (@Vulst3)Photo by caleb (@Vulst3)Photo by caleb (@Vulst3)Photo by caleb (@Vulst3)
If you recognize many Sen noms outrunning house ballots, if a Dem had stayed in the race for ID-Sen they could have got at least 34%, higher than Achilles' 33.5
4
158
Democrats were only 5ish seats from beating their 2008 seats-per-vote score
3
217
TX-09 left of TX-35 🥲
4
553
Sign of the Memphis area Blacklash: DeSoto county MS is voting to the left in both its House and Senate race
4
407
It's funny that sometimes voters will do this in response to a gerrymander
8
362
Approx
If Indiana and South Carolina had redistricted, they might look like North Carolina does (likely not that dramatic, but still).
12
67
9
790
26,698
20
65
47
558
194,002
Learning that NYT has better estimates for this on their 2026 Voter Trends page. Check those instead!
1
2
9
7,076
Caution that Western states like UT/AZ/CA may be more than 4pts off estimate since they have only partial results
27
8,082
Normally Indiana isn't close enough to be discussed this way but the GOP is lucky to have good geography there. I think Dems still only get 3/9 last night if the map was more nonpartisan. The 9-0 gerrymander would have failed, though
14
618
Good stuff!
5
245
Trump finishes the campaign 2pts above his all-time low
1
6
415
Modelled (very approx!) Unsure %s by state continue to track to partisanship
109
I wonder if the people entertaining the bullish case for David Jolly are underestimating the extent it would also apply to Angie Nixon
1
7
261
das rite
VoteHub ratings change US House | Texas' 9th congressional district Likely R ---> Lean R
4
147
Final Senate, house, and gubernatorial predictions:
6
1
44
4,297
Also: CA-04 - Leans Jones CA-07 - Leans Vang CA-11 - Likely Wiener CA-34 - Leans Gonzales-Torres CA-40 - Likely Kim
181
Louisiana Senate could be a Likely R race instead of Solid R. Dems on track to get the demographics they'd want but the necessary swings are steep!
4
202
TX-09 heads we ride
DCCC poll | 10/20-10/22 LV US House 2026 | Texas’ 9th congressional district (Trump +20 | 2024) 🟥Alex Mealer 48% 🟦Leticia Gutierrez 47% —— (TX-09 surveyed) US Senate Texas 2026 🟦James Talarico 50% 🟥Ken Paxton 45% — Texas Governor 2026 🟦Gina Hinojosa 50% 🟥Greg Abbott 46% (incumbent)
1
2
97