7p CT, two picks against the books: Suns at Thunder, OKC -10.5. We have Phoenix 103-102. Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace are day-to-day; our models split. 63%. Yes, really. Pacers at Bucks, IND -4.5. We have 0-3 Milwaukee 130-120. Indiana's down McConnell, Sheppard and Furphy.

Early NBA, 6-6:30p CT: BOS -14.5: Boston 123-111, 77%. No Claxton for Chicago. CLE -4.5: Cleveland 118-114. MIA -8.5: Miami 123-112. CHA -2.5: Washington 116-112. Charlotte's down Coby White, Grant Williams and Kon Knueppel. The road dog in Charlotte is the spicy one.

Monday menu: nine NBA games and a Monday Night Football game between two 2-4 teams. Our model has an opinion on all ten. A few of them are going to make people mad. Picks drop this afternoon.

Sunday, back half: Lions 20, Packers 17. Had Detroit. Broncos 30, Cards 16. Had Denver. Rams 35, Raiders 21. Had the Rams. Seahawks 20, Chiefs 3. Had Seattle. Hoops 0-3: Knicks (and our Kalshi Knicks YES), Raptors, Sixers. Sunday: 5-7. Football paid. Basketball sent the bill.

SNF: Chiefs at Seahawks, 7:20p CT on NBC. SEA -3, total 42.5. Our pick: Seattle 21-18, 65% confidence. Why: 5-0 KC walks into Lumen Field against a pressure defense built to kill explosive plays. Low-scoring grind, home side edges it. Somebody's zero goes tonight.

Pistons at Sixers, 6:30p CT. DET -1.5. Our pick: Philly 115-112, 59% confidence. Why: no Embiid, still the home side. Detroit's missing Jalen Duren, and Philly's D (100.0 rating) holds serve. Low confidence, loud opinion.

Raptors at Wolves, 6p CT. MIN -1.5. Our pick: Toronto 118-115, 65% confidence. Why: both 2-0, but Toronto's 88.6 defensive rating is the stingiest thing in the building, and Minny is without DiVincenzo. We're taking the other side of the number.

Noon window: 1-3. Vikings 16, Colts 10. Had Minnesota. Ugly, but it counts. Falcons 29, Niners 20. Missed. Bucs 43, Panthers 13. Missed. Very missed. Bengals 35, Ravens 13. Missed. We took the house; the house burned down. Late window and SNF still to play. We're not hiding.

Magic at Knicks, 6p CT at MSG. NYK -7.5, total 224.5. Our pick: Knicks 117-97, 69% confidence. Why: Orlando is without Paolo Banchero (ankle, 4-6 weeks) and Jonathan Isaac. Both teams are 0-2. Only one of them looks like it. We're in: Knicks YES on Kalshi at 74¢.

Late window: Packers at Lions, 3:25p, DET -3.5, total 55.5: Lions 30-26, 70% confidence. GB has the better record. Ford Field has the scoreboard. Broncos at Cardinals, 3:05p, DEN -4.5: Denver 27-24. Rams at Raiders, 3:25p, LAR -3.5: Rams 26-22. Shootout in Detroit.

Bengals at Ravens, noon CT on CBS. Cincy -3, total 46.5. Our pick: Baltimore 24-21. Why: books made the 3-2 road team the favorite. Our model likes the 4-2 home team in a game decided late. 55% confidence, a lean, not a lock. Laying 3 in Baltimore? Brave. We'll take the house.

Noon CT window, chalk edition: Colts at Vikings, MIN -6.5: Vikings 24-16, 76% confidence. 5-0 at home vs 2-4. 49ers at Falcons, SF -2.5: Niners 27-23, 72%. Bucs at Panthers, CAR -3: Panthers 27-21, 72%. Three favorites. We know. Sometimes the obvious answer is the answer.

Saturday, back half: 3-2. Bama 31, A&M 20. Had the Tide. Texas 34, Ole Miss 27. Had the Horns. Utah 21, Houston 13. Had the Utes. ASU 28, K-State 17. Missed, and our Kalshi K-State YES went with it. Wisconsin 24, USC 7. Missed by a mile. Full day: 7-2. Ugly ones included.

Nightcap: No. 14 Houston at No. 10 Utah, 9:15p CT, ESPN. Utah -6.5, total 57.5. Our pick: Utah 32-26, 68% confidence, low risk. Why: 6-0 Utes at Rice-Eccles vs 6-1 Houston. Home efficiency and pressure keep the Coogs in check. Utah by 6, right on the number. Late kick. Stay up.

Morning shift report card: 4-0. Toledo 45, WMU 38. Had the Rockets. Our Kalshi Toledo YES cashed. LSU 38, Auburn 17. Had LSU by 7. They took 21. Indiana 13, Michigan 6 (OT). Ugly, but it counts. Miami 52, Pitt 23. Had the Canes by 20. Chalk across the board. Boring and right.

USC at Wisconsin, 6:30p CT on NBC. USC -2.5, total 50.5. Our pick: USC 26-23, 65% confidence. Why: 6-1 Trojans vs 4-2 Badgers at Camp Randall. Crowd's worth a couple points, record gap a few more. USC by 3, total under the book. Trenches and turnovers decide it. Bring a jacket.

Ole Miss at Texas, 6:30p CT. Texas -3, total 53.5. Our pick: Texas 28-24, 65% confidence. Why: 4-1 Ole Miss has the better record, but DKR is a tough room and the home edge decides a one-score fight. Pick a side, bring snacks.

Kansas State at Arizona State, 2:45p CT on ESPN2. K-State -2.5. Our pick: K-State 29-27, 68% confidence. Why: our quant model has the Wildcats by 7 and 66% to win. Books call it close. We don't. We're in: K-State YES on Kalshi at 56¢.

Texas A&M at Alabama, 2:30p CT on ABC. Bama -13.5. Our pick: Alabama 32-19. 72% confidence, one of our low-risk calls today. Why: 5-2 Bama at Bryant-Denny vs a 4-3 A&M. The number is big. So is the gap.

11a CT window: LSU at Auburn (ABC), LSU -7: LSU 29-22. Indiana at Michigan (Fox), IU -7: Indiana 25-17. Hoosiers laying a TD in the Big House. Times change. Pitt at Miami (ESPN), Miami -19.5: Canes 34-14. Chalk across the board. Spicy, no. Right, hopefully.