Watching markets / Sharing my own vision

More of my analysis ➜
Joined October 2021
🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING TERRIBLE IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN We've seen this before. All the major S&P 500 cycles end the same way: 2020: New all-time highs → Then a -36% crash 2022: New all-time highs → Then a -28% crash 2024: New all-time highs → Then a -21% crash 2026: New all-time highs → The correction has already begun The crowd is waiting for a confirmation signal. It always does. But connect the dots: - The S&P has already fallen from 7,850 to 7,620. - Oil is above $110. - Just 10 stocks still hold up 40% of the index. - 84% of stocks are already in a drawdown. By the time everyone agrees it is a crash, the first wave is already gone. Then the excuses start: "It is just a healthy correction." That is how every major crash begins. Not with panic. With denial. Remember, I've called every major turn for 10 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. When the real flush confirms, I’ll post the level worth buying here like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
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MARMOT retweeted
🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING TERRIBLE IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN We've seen this before. All the major S&P 500 cycles end the same way: 2020: New all-time highs → Then a -36% crash 2022: New all-time highs → Then a -28% crash 2024: New all-time highs → Then a -21% crash 2026: New all-time highs → The correction has already begun The crowd is waiting for a confirmation signal. It always does. But connect the dots: - The S&P has already fallen from 7,850 to 7,620. - Oil is above $110. - Just 10 stocks still hold up 40% of the index. - 84% of stocks are already in a drawdown. By the time everyone agrees it is a crash, the first wave is already gone. Then the excuses start: "It is just a healthy correction." That is how every major crash begins. Not with panic. With denial. Remember, I've called every major turn for 10 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. When the real flush confirms, I’ll post the level worth buying here like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
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MARMOT retweeted
🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING The S&P 500 fell below 7,600. The crowd still believes that the Fed will step in and fix everything. But here’s what they are missing: Inflation is at 3.7%. Energy is up 20%. And the only question that matters right now: Will the Fed start printing money under these conditions? History says no until something breaks. In 2008, everyone expected a rescue. Then Lehman was allowed to fail. And the system cracked open after that. The same risk sits under this market. Three paths from here: 1. The Fed panics and prints. Sharp drop, then liquidity returns. 2. Inflation stays sticky. The Fed cannot ease. The market bleeds for months. 3. Something breaks. No rescue. Full crisis mode. The crowd is priced for path 1. The setup favors path 2 or 3. Spotting the top is not the hard part. The hard part is surviving what comes after it. Remember, I've called every major turn for 10 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. When the real flush confirms, I’ll post the level worth buying here like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
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🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING The S&P 500 fell below 7,600. The crowd still believes that the Fed will step in and fix everything. But here’s what they are missing: Inflation is at 3.7%. Energy is up 20%. And the only question that matters right now: Will the Fed start printing money under these conditions? History says no until something breaks. In 2008, everyone expected a rescue. Then Lehman was allowed to fail. And the system cracked open after that. The same risk sits under this market. Three paths from here: 1. The Fed panics and prints. Sharp drop, then liquidity returns. 2. Inflation stays sticky. The Fed cannot ease. The market bleeds for months. 3. Something breaks. No rescue. Full crisis mode. The crowd is priced for path 1. The setup favors path 2 or 3. Spotting the top is not the hard part. The hard part is surviving what comes after it. Remember, I've called every major turn for 10 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. When the real flush confirms, I’ll post the level worth buying here like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
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MARMOT retweeted
🚨 THIS IS INSANE In the last 24 hours: Bitcoin: -4.70% S&P 500: -1.63% Nasdaq: -3.26% Silver: -5.85% Gold: -2.61% Trillions just disappeared from the market. We’re moving into an extreme statistical event. Something that has NEVER happened in the history of finance. That’s more than the GDP of 99% of countries erased in hours. This is the start of a FORCED LIQUIDATION PHASE. Liquidity is vanishing. Funds are getting margin-called. Positions are being closed. They’re selling whatever still has value just to stay alive. Remember, I called Bitcoin’s last cycle top near $126,000 and told you to buy around $60K. When the real flush is confirmed, I’ll post the level worth buying here like I always do. Stay close.
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🚨 THIS IS INSANE In the last 24 hours: Bitcoin: -4.70% S&P 500: -1.63% Nasdaq: -3.26% Silver: -5.85% Gold: -2.61% Trillions just disappeared from the market. We’re moving into an extreme statistical event. Something that has NEVER happened in the history of finance. That’s more than the GDP of 99% of countries erased in hours. This is the start of a FORCED LIQUIDATION PHASE. Liquidity is vanishing. Funds are getting margin-called. Positions are being closed. They’re selling whatever still has value just to stay alive. Remember, I called Bitcoin’s last cycle top near $126,000 and told you to buy around $60K. When the real flush is confirmed, I’ll post the level worth buying here like I always do. Stay close.
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MARMOT retweeted
🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING Bitcoin is now repeating exactly the pattern it had before the 30% jump. Remember when $BTC was at $60K? Terrible news flow: • Saylor was selling. • Miners were dumping. • CLARITY Act was delayed. But the price didn't drop. That was the first accumulation phase, and then $BTC rallied to $80K. Now look at today. Extreme FUD everywhere: • MSCI is kicking Strategy out of its index (will lead to forced selling by funds) • The Fed hiked rates. • Democrats took power. Yet... the price went up. Do you understand what this means? Bitcoin is absorbing all the bad news and exiting the second accumulation phase. Institutions are quietly loading up before the next cycle. The next move will be a parabolic run to $100K. It's not too late to buy. Don't say I didn't warn you. For the record, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including the exact $16K bottom, the $111K top in October, and this pump from $60K 10 days before it started. My next call will be more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Stay close.
At $120K I said the bull market was over. People laughed. At $60K I said $40K-$50K was still possible. Then I revised and said the bottom was in. I started buying size at $60K-$75K. That was the call. Not after the bounce. Before it. I called the start of the new bull at $69K. I gave the first target: $82,000. A few weeks later, $82,000 got hit. Now I expect a short pause. Let people think the move is over. Then we go to $100,000.
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🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING Bitcoin is now repeating exactly the pattern it had before the 30% jump. Remember when $BTC was at $60K? Terrible news flow: • Saylor was selling. • Miners were dumping. • CLARITY Act was delayed. But the price didn't drop. That was the first accumulation phase, and then $BTC rallied to $80K. Now look at today. Extreme FUD everywhere: • MSCI is kicking Strategy out of its index (will lead to forced selling by funds) • The Fed hiked rates. • Democrats took power. Yet... the price went up. Do you understand what this means? Bitcoin is absorbing all the bad news and exiting the second accumulation phase. Institutions are quietly loading up before the next cycle. The next move will be a parabolic run to $100K. It's not too late to buy. Don't say I didn't warn you. For the record, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including the exact $16K bottom, the $111K top in October, and this pump from $60K 10 days before it started. My next call will be more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Stay close.
At $120K I said the bull market was over. People laughed. At $60K I said $40K-$50K was still possible. Then I revised and said the bottom was in. I started buying size at $60K-$75K. That was the call. Not after the bounce. Before it. I called the start of the new bull at $69K. I gave the first target: $82,000. A few weeks later, $82,000 got hit. Now I expect a short pause. Let people think the move is over. Then we go to $100,000.
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MARMOT retweeted
🚨 THE S&P 500 IS REPEATING 1989 SETUP Everyone compares AI to the dot-com bubble. But the real precedent is Japan in 1989. Back then, Japan controlled 80% of global memory chips. The Nikkei was at all-time highs. The technology was real. The future looked unstoppable. Then it broke. It took 34 years for the Nikkei to recover. Why am I bringing this up now? Because the structure of today’s AI boom looks exactly like Japan’s system in the late 80s. Back then, companies financed each other. They kept the system alive through relationships, not cash flow. Now look at Nvidia. It sells the chips. It invests in the buyers. It backs their leases and power payments. Nvidia is on both sides of the trade. Just like Japan's keiretsu. And the money isn't coming from profits. AI debt issuance is approaching $570 billion this year. SoftBank just raised $11 billion in high-yield bonds to fund OpenAI. Big Tech is backing $300 billion in data-center debt. This is a debt machine. Meanwhile, the top 10 companies are nearly 40% of the S&P 500. Goldman expects them to generate 68% of earnings growth. The index is not a market anymore. It is a bet on a handful of names. In 1989, they said Japan's model was superior. The technology was real. The companies were unbeatable. Today, they say AI changes everything. The technology is real. Nvidia is unbeatable. Both statements are true. And both are irrelevant to the stock price. Technology can be real and still destroy capital. Japan proved it. The dot-com bubble proved it. The financing underneath is starting to look like a closed loop. When the loop breaks, the technology doesn't disappear. The stock price does. For the record, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including the exact BTC bottom at $16K and the current pump from $60K 10 days before it started. Turn on notifications. When this loop breaks and the real buying opportunity appears, I’ll call it here publicly.
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🚨 THE S&P 500 IS REPEATING 1989 SETUP Everyone compares AI to the dot-com bubble. But the real precedent is Japan in 1989. Back then, Japan controlled 80% of global memory chips. The Nikkei was at all-time highs. The technology was real. The future looked unstoppable. Then it broke. It took 34 years for the Nikkei to recover. Why am I bringing this up now? Because the structure of today’s AI boom looks exactly like Japan’s system in the late 80s. Back then, companies financed each other. They kept the system alive through relationships, not cash flow. Now look at Nvidia. It sells the chips. It invests in the buyers. It backs their leases and power payments. Nvidia is on both sides of the trade. Just like Japan's keiretsu. And the money isn't coming from profits. AI debt issuance is approaching $570 billion this year. SoftBank just raised $11 billion in high-yield bonds to fund OpenAI. Big Tech is backing $300 billion in data-center debt. This is a debt machine. Meanwhile, the top 10 companies are nearly 40% of the S&P 500. Goldman expects them to generate 68% of earnings growth. The index is not a market anymore. It is a bet on a handful of names. In 1989, they said Japan's model was superior. The technology was real. The companies were unbeatable. Today, they say AI changes everything. The technology is real. Nvidia is unbeatable. Both statements are true. And both are irrelevant to the stock price. Technology can be real and still destroy capital. Japan proved it. The dot-com bubble proved it. The financing underneath is starting to look like a closed loop. When the loop breaks, the technology doesn't disappear. The stock price does. For the record, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including the exact BTC bottom at $16K and the current pump from $60K 10 days before it started. Turn on notifications. When this loop breaks and the real buying opportunity appears, I’ll call it here publicly.
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MARMOT retweeted
🚨 READ THIS POST CAREFULLY BEFORE BUYING STOCKS The 10-year yield is at 5.35%. The dollar is rising. Inflation is still hot. That combo alone doesn't crash markets. Something underneath does. And right now, the warning signs are everywhere: → Private credit: Seven major platforms (Blue Owl, Apollo, Ares, BlackRock, Blackstone) have capped withdrawals. $4.6 billion is trapped. → Auto loan delinquencies just hit 5.5% at 90+ days. Worse than the 2008 peak. → Office CMBS delinquencies at 12.3%. Higher than 2008. → Corporate bankruptcies at 16-year highs. 372 large filings this year. → S&P 500 is being held up by 5-7 names. Every other sector fell in September. → Six banks have already failed this year. The pattern is always the same: Rates stay high → something built on cheap money breaks → the break spreads → by the time the Fed cuts, the damage is done. You can't time the top. But you can prepare: 1. Raise cash gradually. Not all at once. 2. Park it in short-term Treasuries (SHV, BIL, SGOV) at 5%+. 3. Watch the leaders, not the index. When NVDA, AAPL, MSFT break on volume, that's your signal. 4. Avoid zombie companies. Russell 2000 is a third zombies. 5. Own quality. No debt, strong cash flow, pricing power. 6. Don't short the top. You can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. 7. Write down your plan now. For 10%, 20%, 30% drops. The goal is not to predict the crash. It is to survive it with capital to buy the bottom. For the record, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including the exact BTC bottom at $16K, the $111K top in October, and the current pump from $60K 10 days before it started. The next call will be even more important. I will guide you through this liquidity squeeze, and when the real bottom finally forms, I’ll call it here publicly. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
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MARMOT retweeted
🚨 SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING THIS MONDAY If you hold any stocks, tech funds, or crypto, you MUST read this carefully. A critical event happened over the weekend. While markets were closed, the semiconductor complex got smashed. Leveraged longs were flushed in minutes. SK Hynix. Micron. Nvidia. SOXL. That was not random. That was the first crack in the AI story. Hundreds of billions poured into GPUs. The revenue is not showing up fast enough. China is dumping cheap memory into the global market. Margins are getting destroyed. Yields are rising again. And rising yields do one thing to extreme tech valuations: They break them. Do you see the trap now? High inflation + High oil prices + Skyrocketing yields = Tech valuations CANNOT hold. And the entire S&P 500 is still being dragged higher by 5 to 7 mega-cap names. Not broad strength. Not a healthy market. A concentration trap. And that trap is already closing. When the market opens on Monday, institutions will NOT buy your dip. They will be fighting for the exit door. When the 7 tech giants fall, they will drag the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Real Estate, and Crypto down into the abyss with them. Pay attention TODAY. Because when the opening bell rings on Monday, it will be TOO LATE. For the record, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including the exact BTC bottom at $16K and the current pump from $60K 10 days before it started. The next call will be even more important. I will guide you through this liquidity squeeze, and when the real bottom finally forms, I’ll call it here publicly.
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🚨 SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING THIS MONDAY If you hold any stocks, tech funds, or crypto, you MUST read this carefully. A critical event happened over the weekend. While markets were closed, the semiconductor complex got smashed. Leveraged longs were flushed in minutes. SK Hynix. Micron. Nvidia. SOXL. That was not random. That was the first crack in the AI story. Hundreds of billions poured into GPUs. The revenue is not showing up fast enough. China is dumping cheap memory into the global market. Margins are getting destroyed. Yields are rising again. And rising yields do one thing to extreme tech valuations: They break them. Do you see the trap now? High inflation + High oil prices + Skyrocketing yields = Tech valuations CANNOT hold. And the entire S&P 500 is still being dragged higher by 5 to 7 mega-cap names. Not broad strength. Not a healthy market. A concentration trap. And that trap is already closing. When the market opens on Monday, institutions will NOT buy your dip. They will be fighting for the exit door. When the 7 tech giants fall, they will drag the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Real Estate, and Crypto down into the abyss with them. Pay attention TODAY. Because when the opening bell rings on Monday, it will be TOO LATE. For the record, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including the exact BTC bottom at $16K and the current pump from $60K 10 days before it started. The next call will be even more important. I will guide you through this liquidity squeeze, and when the real bottom finally forms, I’ll call it here publicly.
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MARMOT retweeted
🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING S&P 500 is sitting near all-time highs. Right in the middle of a massive global energy shock. And almost nobody is paying attention to what's coming. The gap between reality and the charts is terrifying. Connect the dots: OIL surges to nearly $110, its highest level since September 15. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. Refineries are getting hit. Inflation is out of control. At the exact same time, the AI hype is starting to crack. Even Anthropic had to slash its IPO valuation to $1.5T (from $2T+) Higher energy costs + dying tech multiples = total earnings disaster. Yet the stock market acts like everything is totally fine. Smart money is quietly dumping their bags into this rally, leaving retail to hold the floor before the music stops. I've seen this movie before: When stocks pump during a supply shock, the drop isn't a dip. It's a vertical collapse.
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🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING S&P 500 is sitting near all-time highs. Right in the middle of a massive global energy shock. And almost nobody is paying attention to what's coming. The gap between reality and the charts is terrifying. Connect the dots: OIL surges to nearly $110, its highest level since September 15. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. Refineries are getting hit. Inflation is out of control. At the exact same time, the AI hype is starting to crack. Even Anthropic had to slash its IPO valuation to $1.5T (from $2T+) Higher energy costs + dying tech multiples = total earnings disaster. Yet the stock market acts like everything is totally fine. Smart money is quietly dumping their bags into this rally, leaving retail to hold the floor before the music stops. I've seen this movie before: When stocks pump during a supply shock, the drop isn't a dip. It's a vertical collapse.
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🚨 READ THIS POST CAREFULLY BEFORE BUYING STOCKS The 10-year yield is at 5.35%. The dollar is rising. Inflation is still hot. That combo alone doesn't crash markets. Something underneath does. And right now, the warning signs are everywhere: → Private credit: Seven major platforms (Blue Owl, Apollo, Ares, BlackRock, Blackstone) have capped withdrawals. $4.6 billion is trapped. → Auto loan delinquencies just hit 5.5% at 90+ days. Worse than the 2008 peak. → Office CMBS delinquencies at 12.3%. Higher than 2008. → Corporate bankruptcies at 16-year highs. 372 large filings this year. → S&P 500 is being held up by 5-7 names. Every other sector fell in September. → Six banks have already failed this year. The pattern is always the same: Rates stay high → something built on cheap money breaks → the break spreads → by the time the Fed cuts, the damage is done. You can't time the top. But you can prepare: 1. Raise cash gradually. Not all at once. 2. Park it in short-term Treasuries (SHV, BIL, SGOV) at 5%+. 3. Watch the leaders, not the index. When NVDA, AAPL, MSFT break on volume, that's your signal. 4. Avoid zombie companies. Russell 2000 is a third zombies. 5. Own quality. No debt, strong cash flow, pricing power. 6. Don't short the top. You can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. 7. Write down your plan now. For 10%, 20%, 30% drops. The goal is not to predict the crash. It is to survive it with capital to buy the bottom. For the record, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including the exact BTC bottom at $16K, the $111K top in October, and the current pump from $60K 10 days before it started. The next call will be even more important. I will guide you through this liquidity squeeze, and when the real bottom finally forms, I’ll call it here publicly. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
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MARMOT retweeted
🚨 THIS IS NOT NORMAL The S&P 500 is sitting near all-time highs. Meanwhile, the real economy is breaking. The inflation data just came in way worse than expected. PPI printed 6.3% vs 5.3% est. And here is the problem: The AI bubble is creating the illusion that everything is fine. It is not. With data like this, rates are not getting cut aggressively. Higher for longer is back. But the entire AI buildout is built on a mountain of debt. Debt for chips. Debt for data centers. Debt stacked on debt. That debt needs cheap money to survive. With rates this high, that debt cannot hold. High rates and a credit-fueled bubble do not coexist for long. The bubble will burst. The only question is when. The index near the highs is not strength. It is the last stage of the illusion. For the record, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including the exact BTC bottom at $16K, the $111K top in October, and the current pump from $60K 10 days before it started. Turn on notifications. I will guide you through this liquidity squeeze, and when the real bottom finally forms, I’ll call it here publicly.
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🚨 THIS IS NOT NORMAL The S&P 500 is sitting near all-time highs. Meanwhile, the real economy is breaking. The inflation data just came in way worse than expected. PPI printed 6.3% vs 5.3% est. And here is the problem: The AI bubble is creating the illusion that everything is fine. It is not. With data like this, rates are not getting cut aggressively. Higher for longer is back. But the entire AI buildout is built on a mountain of debt. Debt for chips. Debt for data centers. Debt stacked on debt. That debt needs cheap money to survive. With rates this high, that debt cannot hold. High rates and a credit-fueled bubble do not coexist for long. The bubble will burst. The only question is when. The index near the highs is not strength. It is the last stage of the illusion. For the record, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including the exact BTC bottom at $16K, the $111K top in October, and the current pump from $60K 10 days before it started. Turn on notifications. I will guide you through this liquidity squeeze, and when the real bottom finally forms, I’ll call it here publicly.
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MARMOT retweeted
🚨 THE S&P 500 IS REPEATING 1972 CRASH The S&P 500 keeps pushing to new all-time highs. But here’s what almost everyone is missing: The last time a handful of stocks carried the market, it ended in a 50% crash. It was 1972. They called them the Nifty Fifty. Coca-Cola. IBM. Xerox. Polaroid. You could buy them at any price, they said. Nothing could stop them. While the rest of the market was already falling, the index looked fine because those fifty names were holding it up. Then 1973 hit. Oil spiked. Inflation stuck. The Fed could not ease. The Nifty Fifty broke. The stocks everyone said you could own forever got destroyed. The S&P 500 fell almost 50%. Now look at today. It's not fifty names anymore. It's seven. The Magnificent Seven now make up over 34% of the entire index . $25 trillion in market cap. More than the GDP of every country on earth except the US . And the setup is the same. 84% of the other stocks are already down. Oil is above $100. The Strait of Hormuz disruption was the largest oil market shock in history. Inflation is back at 4.8%. Energy prices are driving it. The Fed already hiked in September. Another hike is on the table. The same conditions that broke the Nifty Fifty are lining up again. But this time, the weight is concentrated in seven stocks, not fifty. When those seven break, there is nothing underneath to hold the index up. The names change. The setup does not. And this time, it's worse. I’ve been trading markets for over 10 years. When the names holding this up break, I’ll post the level worth buying here like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
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MARMOT retweeted
🚨 SOMETHING STRANGE IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW The S&P 500 keeps hitting new highs. But almost no one notices that 1929 is repeating right now. The parallels are everywhere. Back then: The market wouldn't stop going up. Everyone was in stocks. It was the industrial revolution. The market was pricing in a new era. President Hoover said: "Prosperity is just around the corner." Then came the worst and longest economic crisis in modern history. The Great Depression. Liquidity vanished. Land sold for pennies. Farmers had wheat and no buyers. The people holding physical gold and silver were the ones left standing. Now look at today. Record retail participation in stocks. Highest ever. It's the AI revolution. The market is pricing in a new era. Trump calls it "the best economy ever" based on the stock market. But the real economy is suffocating. Liquidity is evaporating. Credit is tightening. Delinquencies are rising. Savings are thin. Same script. Different century. I am not calling doomsday. I am saying the parallel is too clean to ignore. Paper wealth is not the hedge. Physical gold and silver are. For the record, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including the exact BTC bottom at $16K, the $111K top in October, and the current pump from $60K 10 days before it started. Turn notifications on. When the liquidity leaves and I see the level worth buying, I'll post it here like I always do.
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