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Las Vegas sports betting pro | Contrarian + model NFL handicapper | Circa Millions 2024 top 1% | Free edges daily, premium on Winible |

Joined August 2021
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I had monster betting day, gave my best bets out free, did you follow and make money? my Super Bowl betting recap: Seahawks -4.5 βœ… Under 22 1st Half βœ… Under 46 βœ… Kenneth Walker MVP +800 βœ… I gave all these away for free , follow for more winners @WizardOddsShow #Seahawks #SuperBowl #SuperBowlLX
SUPER BOWL FREE PLAY SEAHAWKS -4.5 With Bill Belichick at the helm and Tom Brady behind center, you knew what kind of team the Patriots were fielding each week and you felt pretty confident that they were going to be playing deep into January. With a new regime in charge in Foxborough, the 2025-26 edition of the Patriots has more questions than any Super Bowl-caliber team in recent memory. A Division Round win over the Texans where New England generated 3.9 yards per play, went 3-of-14 on third down and turned the ball over three times; and 3) A conference championship win over Denver where the Patriots' only touchdown was scored off a fumble at the Broncos' 12-yard-line. Pro Football Reference maintains a strength of schedule metric that combines the winning percentages of a team's opponents. Not only did the Patriots have the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL this year, they would have the easiest strength of schedule (by a significant margin) of any Super Bowl-winning team in the last 20 years. New England has advanced to Super Bowl LX with QB Drake Maye going 43-of-77 (55.8-percent) through the air in three playoff games with two interceptions, six fumbles and 15 sacks. Maye has also surprisingly appeared on the Patriots' injury report leading up to the game with both an illness and a shoulder issue. Maye missed one practice and was a limited participant in another. Patriots' head coach Mike Vrabel said that his team has been battling some illnesses in recent weeks. This will be the second Super Bowl at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara after the Broncos beat the Panthers here ten years ago. It was sunny and 76* at kickoff of that game. Early forecasts look promising for central California over the next week and conditions should be favorable on Sunday. Since 2004, the underdog is 15-7 against the spread in the Super Bowl and the 'dog has covered the number in each of the last five (courtesy betting analyst Evan Abrams). Since 2002, underdogs of 3+ points have gone 13-4 against the spread in the big game. With those trends in mind, we are still comfortable laying the points with Seattle in this matchup. One of the biggest reasons why we played the Rams against the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game was Seattle's injuries on the offensive line. When we went to print before the NFC Championship Game, offensive tackles Charles Cross and Josh Jones were both nursing injuries and no one outside of Lumen Field really knew how Sam Darnold was feeling after his oblique injury. Cross and Jones were both cleared to return against the Rams and Darnold looked perfectly fine, going 25-of-36 through the air for 346 passing yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. New England, on the other hand, now has some questions to answer. In addition to Maye's injury, edge rusher Harold Landry did not play against the Broncos and linebacker Robert Spillane suffered an ankle injury and did not return. New England has scored an average of 18.0 points per game in the postseason, and keep in mind, some of those scores were directly set up by turnovers created by the defense. Per NFL researcher Tony Holzman Escareno, that's the fewest points scored by a Super Bowl-bound team since the 1979 Rams. The playing conditions have not been ideal and the Patriots have faced some tough defenses during this playoff run, but things aren't going to get any easier against a Seahawks' defense that was No. 1 in EPA per play allowed, No. 3 in success rate allowed, No. 4 in passing success rate allowed and No. 1 in rushing success rate allowed while playing a much tougher schedule than the one New England faced. The 12th Man gets its revenge for the heartbreaking loss to New England in 2014. #SuperBowl #SuperBowl2026 #SuperBowlLX
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🚨 Betting College Hoops tonight? Use this data to help fade public chalk and get edge on Vegas sports books! Premium Play available at my @Winible Data per @BetMGM What is your best bet? πŸ‘‡ #gosparty #TheBrotherhood @DukeMBB
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🚨 looking for NFL handicapping analysis & edge of Week 10 action? Tune in and hear legends dissect NFL card and latest news from trade deadline @brentmusburger @JimFeistSports @pritchardwins @kenthomson87 Check out Proline TV @YouTube #Gambling𝕏
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🚨 Breaking News QB Kirk Cousins traded by Raiders to Minnesota Vikings per @RapSheet and @AdamSchefter Does this make @Vikings favorite to go to Super Bowl? πŸ‘‡ #skol #raidernation
The last time Kirk Cousins suited up for the Vikings was in 2023 against the Packers at Lambeau Field. He’s now back in Minnesota in 2026, and his first game could come Sunday against Green Bay at Lambeau Field.
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Replying to @AZCardinals
@AZCardinals offensive skill position players Rams & Sean McVay will face: QB Carson Beck WR Simi Fehoko WR Reggie Virgil WR Devin Duvernay RB Tyler Allgeier TE Trey McBride Cardinals QB Gardner Minshew is seeking additional medical opinions to confirm that he likely will need season-ending surgery on a torn UCL. WR Michael Wilson out as well #RiseUpRedSea #ramshouse
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Winner πŸ’° Portland v Hawaii Under 157.5 Portland upsets Hawaii 73-66 Congrats all who stayed up late, won money w me in college hoops Data from my model liked Under, injury on Hawaii side and off back to back saw poor shooting night. Who else loves winning in late night game? πŸ‘‡ #hawaiiMBB #gobows
Betting late night hoops? Portland at Hawaii betting insights and market analysis thread 🧡 Portland Pilots (2-1) at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (3-0) Stan Sheriff Center, Honolulu | Late night Nov 9 / early Nov 10 ET (MW+) | Hawaii -8.5, total ~157.5 Situation and Travel/Rest Portland has been on the island for the Outrigger Rainbow Classic since at least Nov 6 (loss to UT Arlington, then a 130-56 blowout of Bethesda). This is not a tired long-haul travel spotβ€”the Pilots have already adjusted to the venue and schedule. Hawaii played last night (Nov 8), beating UT Arlington 71-62 after earlier wins over Seattle (74-73) and Bethesda (116-44). Both teams are in the same multi-game stretch; Hawaii gets the home crowd and familiarity edge, but the short rest applies similarly. Historical series favors Hawaii at home (including a 69-56 win in Dec 2023). #hawaiimbb #gobows
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Betting late night hoops? Portland at Hawaii betting insights and market analysis thread 🧡 Portland Pilots (2-1) at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (3-0) Stan Sheriff Center, Honolulu | Late night Nov 9 / early Nov 10 ET (MW+) | Hawaii -8.5, total ~157.5 Situation and Travel/Rest Portland has been on the island for the Outrigger Rainbow Classic since at least Nov 6 (loss to UT Arlington, then a 130-56 blowout of Bethesda). This is not a tired long-haul travel spotβ€”the Pilots have already adjusted to the venue and schedule. Hawaii played last night (Nov 8), beating UT Arlington 71-62 after earlier wins over Seattle (74-73) and Bethesda (116-44). Both teams are in the same multi-game stretch; Hawaii gets the home crowd and familiarity edge, but the short rest applies similarly. Historical series favors Hawaii at home (including a 69-56 win in Dec 2023). #hawaiimbb #gobows
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Coaching and Style β€’ Hawaii – Eran Ganot (12th season): Veteran program builder with a strong home record, recent Big West title + NCAA appearance. He is integrating a nearly brand-new roster (13 newcomers) while maintaining defensive structure and continuity on the staff. Home night games against non-conference foes have been reliable for Hawaii. β€’ Portland – Shantay Legans (6th season): Experienced (previously Eastern Washington success). The Pilots have leaned on international/Australian talent and early-season high efficiency. Style this year has been up-tempo and high-assist against weak opponents. Pace: Portland has been playing fast early (high possessions ~80+, scoring 116 PPG on 61% FG in a tiny sample of weak defenses). Hawaii is more controlled (~75 possessions range, strong defense allowing ~60 PPG so far with steals/blocks pressure). Expect Hawaii to try to slow the game and force turnovers; the total market has drifted down from the 158s toward 156.5 as a result.
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🚨 Betting MNF 4th Quarter live? Who are best 4th Quarter teams? Buffalo Bills lead in 4th-quarter points per game (11.0); Las Vegas Raiders lead in total Q4 points so far (85). Specific β€œ4th quarter only ATS” records are not widely published in free public sources. 4th-Quarter Scoring Leaders (2026 season, through ~Week 9 / Nov. 9) Data as of November 9, 2026 (some Monday night games ongoing or incomplete in the rankings): Points per game in the 4th quarter (TeamRankings / StatRankings): 1. Buffalo Bills β€” 11.0 2. Las Vegas Raiders β€” 9.4 3. Denver Broncos β€” 9.2 4. Dallas Cowboys β€” 9.1 5. Minnesota Vikings β€” 8.9 6. Tennessee Titans β€” 8.8 7. Los Angeles Rams β€” 8.0 8. Cincinnati Bengals β€” 7.9 9. New York Giants β€” 7.5 10. Seattle Seahawks / Cleveland Browns β€” 7.4 (tied) Notable 4th-quarter scoring margins (for minus vs, Legion Report): β€’ Minnesota Vikings: +52 (62 for, 10 against in 7 games β€” extremely stingy defense late) β€’ Las Vegas Raiders: +32 β€’ Denver Broncos: +31 β€’ Pittsburgh Steelers: +24 β€’ Seattle / Tennessee: +23 β€’ Dallas: +22 Vikings stand out for pure dominance in the final quarter. #skol #billsmafia
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4th-Quarter Only ATS Public ATS standings (full-game) are readily available, but quarter-specific ATS records (how often a team covers the posted 4th-quarter spread) are not tabulated in the major free sources I found. Quarter lines exist (sportsbooks post 1st-quarter and other period spreads), but historical performance by quarter is typically tracked by specialized betting analytics sites or behind paywalls rather than in standard team stats pages. Best proxies from available data (teams that should perform well on 4th-quarter ATS): β€’ Minnesota Vikings β€” Elite Q4 scoring margin (+52). They score a lot late and almost never allow points in the 4th, which is ideal for covering a Q4 line. β€’ Denver Broncos β€” Strong Q4 scoring (83 points, +31 margin) and the league’s best full-game ATS record (7-2, ~78%). β€’ Las Vegas Raiders β€” Highest total Q4 points and solid positive margin; also strong full-game ATS (6-3). β€’ Buffalo Bills β€” Highest Q4 PPG and a solid full-game ATS mark (5-2). They score heavily late, though they also allow a fair amount in the 4th (net margin only ~+5).
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🚨 Betting Monday Night football, looking for edge the public just isn’t seeing? I have Premium Play $17 @Winible Bills at Vikings MNF Thread 🧡 Confirmed inactives: Bills LT Dion Dawkins and LG Alec Anderson are out (per Bills sources and inactives). Expected starters on the left side are Tylan Grable (LT) and Austin Corbett (LG). Vikings: Carson Wentz starts (Murray out with hamstring); Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason are both available for balance in the run game; Hockenson is active. Game Factors β€’ Loudest-home-crowd effect: U.S. Bank ranks among the noisiest stadiums (enclosed design, high dB spikes). This hurts road-team communication, especially protections and checks. Expect elevated false starts/penalties for the Bills on the offensive side (and some defensive communication issues). This is a real edge for the Vikings defense. #skol #billsmafia
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β€’ Wentz in: Less scramble threat than Murray, but better arm talent downfield. Expect more vertical shots to Jefferson/Addison and increased involvement for Hockenson. Combined with Jones + Mason back, this adds some offensive balance and floor the Vikings have lacked (they’ve been near the bottom in offensive EPA/scoring) β€’ Team profiles: Bills have the NFL’s top scoring offense (~33 PPG) and strong EPA/play but a bottom-tier defense. Vikings have the NFL’s top scoring defense (~13 PPG) and elite EPA/pressure metrics, but a low-scoring offense. Bills are 6-1 (road success), Vikings 6-1 (home success). Current market: Bills roughly -3 to -3.5, total ~45-45.5 (has fallen from mid/high 40s)
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Betting MNF tonight? Breaking news on betting insights from worlds largest traders on Polymarket @PolymarketSport Polymarket's top sports traders are split on Bills–Vikings tonight The month's #1 account by profit is clearly on Buffalo, while two other top-10 accounts lean Minnesota **Prices:** Bills are 62.5Β’ on the moneyline. On the main spread, Bills -3.5 is 47.5Β’ ($482K volume), and Bills -2.5 is 57.5Β’, so Polymarket treats -3 as roughly a coin flip, in line with the books. The Over 44.5 is 52.5Β’ ($279K volume). Top traders' positions: - **[breakthebank] #1 this month at about $6.0M profit, is the cleanest directional bet on Buffalo. It has about $139K on Bills -3.5 at 46Β’, plus about $16K on the Bills moneyline and about $5K on Bills -4.5 [HomeRunHazard] #3 at about $1.8M, has Vikings positions on the moneyline and every spread, and leans Under 44.5. #billsmafia #skol
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- **[Multicoloured-serf] #5 at about $1.6M, has about $37K on Over 44.5 and leans Vikings on the spreads. - **[monkeymashingkeyboard](polymarket.com/profile/0x684…)**, #6 at about $1.5M, leans Bills on the moneyline and -2.5 and has a small Over **Biggest trades in the last 24 hours:** - gmpm2 bought $139K of Vikings +3.5 Sunday at 8:01 PM. - Kch-Temp bought about $65K of Over 44.5 this morning. That's a big bettor but not a top profit name. - sinasinner bought $46K of Under 44.5 Sunday night.
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🚨 Breaking, @AZCardinals WR Michael Wilson is out for the season due to neck injury per @AdamSchefter and of course Marvin Harrison Jr traded away few weeks ago WR Bourne on IR too Is Cardinals season done? πŸ‘‡ #riseupredsea
Cardinals WR Michael Wilson is out for the season due to a neck injury.
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🚨 Breaking: Dianna Russini is back! She will have insider interviews, opinions and lots of fun! No word if she’ll be Patriots insider Will you get your betting advice from Diana? πŸ‘‡ #nepats #billsmafia
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🚨 Don’t bet Monday Night Football til you read data and breakdown on Bills offensive line and injuries. Thread 🧡 Will give you edge to find value and beat the sports books! Buffalo Bills have two offensive linemen questionable, both on left side potentially creating cluster injury! Bills have +3.1 SIC Injury Edge but monitor Inactives list. What are Bills linemen worth to power rating? πŸ‘‡ Dion Dawkins (LT): roughly 2.0 pts Alec Anderson (LG): roughly 1.0 pts Bills O-line (Dawkins + Anderson) Dawkins is the clear higher-value piece. He’s the starting left tackle protecting Josh Allen’s blind side against a Brian Flores defense that lives on pressure, disguise, and blitzes. #BillsMafia #skol
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A solid starting LT in a high-leverage spot is typically in the 1.5–2.5 range for power ratings; top-tier non-QBs sit at 2.5–3. Dawkins is a durable veteran starter (not quite an All-Pro peak guy right now, but consistent and important), so 1.75–2.0 points is the realistic full healthy value to the Bills’ rating. Being questionable after a full week of DNPs with ribs means if he’s out or significantly limited, you dock most or all of that. Depth (Tylan Grable) is usable but a clear step down in this matchup.
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🚨 Jaguars trade for Safety Jessie Bates Boost +1.0 to Jaguars power rating Jessie Bates is a legitimate top-tier free safetyβ€”three-time Second-Team All-Pro, strong ball skills/range, and currently grading as one of the best coverage safeties in the league (PFF overall ~84–85, top-5 at the position, elite coverage grade). Through nine games he has 60 tackles, 1 INT, 3 forced fumbles, and a score. He’s a clear upgrade. Context for the number The Jaguars are already a strong team (roughly +3.5 to +4.5 on many power ratings after Week 8/9, contender territory, elite or near-elite on defense in points allowed and DVOA). They lost starting safety Eric Murray for the season (elbow; solid veteran but closer to average/replacement-level starter with a mediocre coverage grade). Bates fills that exact hole and upgrades the back end of a defense that was already good but more vulnerable through the air. you think Jaguars top AFC team, Or Bills? Who will represent AFC in Super Bowl? #DUUUVAL @Jaguars
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πŸ“ Draftkings Sportsbook Scottsdale beautiful night in desert for @SNFonNBC Bucs or #dabears who ya got?
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Winner πŸ’° 5% Premium on Texans -5 Rocking chair winner on @HoustonTexans over Chargers 1-0 Premium today. 3-0 yesterday $500 bettor won nearly $2,000 on my picks. Congrats to all. Let’s keep winning! Celebrating at @DKSports sports book Beers on me! @Winible #HTownMade #boltup
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🚨 Nico is nice! We have a 5% Premium wager in Texans at Chargers Are the Chargers about to mount comeback? Or are Bolts cooked? πŸ‘‡ #HTownMade #boltup
How did Nico Collins make this TD catch? 😳 HOUvsLAC on CBS/Paramount+ Stream on @NFLPlus
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Betting NFL this afternoon? I have 5% Premium Play! @Winible Analysis of Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (Week 9, Lumen Field Consensus: Seahawks -8.5, total ~39.5–40 @CircaSports Betting Trend: Mike Macdonald is 5-0 ATS vs. the Cardinals. Seattle has one fewer day of rest and is coming off a loss. Divisional games historically lean slightly under (market already prices this; the effect is real but usually small and often already baked into the total) Season stats snapshot: Seattle ~23.1 PPG / 19.9 PA (strong defense, elite yards allowed). Arizona ~21.9 PPG / 29.8 PA (bottom-tier defense). Line has moved from roughly -11.5/-13.5 toward -8.5 amid the injury news.⁠ Key Context Series history: Seahawks are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. They won the Week 2 meeting 31-7 in Arizona (Drew Lock started for an injured Sam Darnold and threw for 235 yards and 3 TDs, mostly to Jaxon Smith-Njigba). Seattle has won its last four home games vs. Arizona by double digits. Cardinals have averaged just 16.3 PPG against Seattle during the streak. Recent form: Seattle (4-4) is 1-3 SU/ATS in its last four after a 34-17 home MNF loss to the Bears (highest regulation points allowed by the Seahawks defense in a while). Arizona (3-5) won a come-from-behind OT game over Dallas last week after a mid-game switch to Gardner Minshew (17/23, 188 yards, 3 TDs in half a game) #seahawks #RiseUpRedSea
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Injuries (major):Seattle OUT: QB Sam Darnold (quad/ribs), LT Charles Cross (ankle), LG Quenton Nelson (knee procedure), DT Leonard Williams (stinger), OLB Uchenna Nwosu (ankle), WR Rashid Shaheed (knee), plus NT Brandon Pili. Drew Lock starts (solid in limited action this year, including the Week 2 win over Arizona). OL and DL are significantly depleted; short rest after MNF Arizona OUT/IR: RB Jeremiyah Love (ankle, IR), WR Kendrick Bourne (broken tibia, season-ending), RB Bam Knight (concussion). Minshew gets a full week as starter. Other pieces (e.g., OL) are also banged up.⁠Azcardinals
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🚨 Saints rookie tries to be hero and fumbles on 2 yard line Browns are 2nd in forced fumbles in NFL Dumb play by WR Tyson after 1st catch Who wins in dome in NOLA? πŸ‘‡ #dawgpound #saints
Carson Schwesinger punches the ball loose for a Browns takeaway! CLEvsNO on CBS/Paramount+ Stream on @NFLPlus
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🚨 NFL News Brief to give you a betting edge on Vegas sports books: Latest line movements, betting trends, QB starters,injuries thread 🧡 5% Premium Play available $17 @Winible - **NYG @ PHI, Circa:** The total dropped from 38.5 to 37.5. - **LAR @ WAS, Circa:** Rams moved from -4.5 to -5.5. - **DAL @ IND, DraftKings:** Dallas shortened from -4.5 to -3.5. Pickens, Porter Jr. and Overshown are inactive - **NYG @ PHI, Fanatics:** The total dropped from 38.5 to 37.5, matching Circa’s earlier move. #whodey #dirtybirds
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**3. Popular props β€” BetMGM** No newer release than [Friday’s ticket rankings](): - Ryan Flournoy Over 33.5 receiving yards (-120). - Matthew Stafford Under 33.5 pass attempts (-140). - Justin Jefferson Over 75.5 receiving yards (-135). No ticket percentages, handle percentages or opening prices were published. BetMGM’s most-bet total was NYJ–KC Over 48 #DaBears
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