YAN WANG

U.S. technology stocks and many EM tech names have rallied spectacularly in recent months, while India's IT sector has struggled. This divergence reflects a dramatic repricing of two business models. Can Indian IT service outsourcing industry can survive in the era of AI?

how much further will the decoupling go?

Trump 2.0 tariffs would be big headwind for China economy: Strategist youtu.be/0Q98CHlPAo4?si=s_He… via @YouTube

Russia and USSR have historically invaded during high oil prices and faced domestic crises when prices fell. Western sanctions haven’t impacted Russian oil prices much, but any material market-driven decline could severely weaken Russia war efforts.

U.S. election season is upcoming and the stakes are high. How will Trump 2.0 affect U.S. equities? What may tax policy from a Harris administration mean for profits? Which sectors stand to benefit the most from either candidates victory?

China’s money and credit numbers have been extremely weak in recent months. If history is any guide, the contraction in monetary aggregates heralds a drastic deceleration in economic growth going forward. alpinemacro.com/trial-access…

Taking a chainsaw to the state. Look at #Argentina

Alibaba, HSBC, BYD lead stock slump in Hong Kong sc.mp/pr1r?utm_source=twitte… via @scmpnews The struggle in Chinese equities "reflects the deep confidence crisis the country is experiencing," Yan Wang, chief China strategist at Alpine Macro, said in a report.

Chinese stocks pose reputational risk to US, Canadian pension funds amid geopolitical tensions, says Alpine Macro strategist sc.mp/887s?utm_source=twitte… via @scmpnews

Mexico is experiencing a near-shoring boom, aiding the country greatly in its post-pandemic growth recovery. FDI has been rising, capacity utilization has been improving, and the labor market is red hot. Wage growth has been staggering. Can the boom continue? @RealAlpineMacro

Yan Wang, chief emerging markets and China strategist at Alpine Macro, says housing policies have eased but still aren't stimulative, given high down payment requirements and even interest rates. reuters.com/markets/asia/sti…

Gold is outperforming the US equity risk premium and its typical inverse correlation with the dollar.

USD/CAD has deviated far above fair value, according to Alpine Macro’s cyclical model.

While #US nonfarm #payrolls grew strongly in May, the #unemployment rate jumped from 3.4% to 3.7%. Could this mark the start of a rising trend in the jobless rate?

The #US #Treasury’s cash balance is dwindling and the X-date will occur in early June. That’s when the Treasury will no longer be able to meet all its spending commitments.