Assistant professor @DukePoliSci https://xitter.cf/t.co/p2zcpB8UBE

Joined February 2012
Hello new followers! You probably came for politics tweets, and you’ll get them. But you’re also gonna get a lot of Columbus sports tweets and pictures of my dog.
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I'm willing to grant that the whole Dans Sullivan thing was a little too cheeky but the actual ballot is pretty clear which Dan Sullivan is the incumbent Republican senator and which Dan Sullivan is just some guy ballotpedia.org/Alaska_offic…
Dems placing a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot in Alaska (a fake candidate designed to conceal who is the actual US Senator running for re-election) is one of the most egregious attacks we have seen on the integrity of American elections. It reveals pure contempt for voters.
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Jon Green retweeted
There are way too many otherwise knowledgeable people on this site asking questions like "how does polling recover". Pollsters didn't do anything wrong! A bunch of people did fraud and got caught by pollsters!
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from the logo to the rim without a single dribble
This Giannis transition bucket 😯 Half-court to the rim in a flash 😳
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We were investigating Wedgewood for faking their data and emailed them for comment this morning, ahead of publishing the findings tomorrow. They are trying to cover up their fraud with the "we were doing a social experiment" excuse. Full story here: blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/fif…
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🗣️ Can we persuade people across political divides? Check out my new paper in @PolBehavior! I analyze 966 political conversations on DiscussIt, a researcher-developed mobile chat platform, comparing persuasive arguments in cross-partisan interactions. 🔗 link.springer.com/article/10…
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Social scientists: Start your diff-in-diffs
It’s official: The Senate now has access to Claude, with the Sergeant at Arms notifying staff today while touting the technology’s ability to assist with “drafting and editing” docs, summarizing meetings and doing “deep data analysis”
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A few notes, we give you the chance to build your own forecast going back to 1946. If you think there is another polling error like in 2016, or want to see what the model would say in 1956, try all these possibilities, make your own modeling decisions, and see the numbers change!
New 2026 US House & Senate election forecasts, using all political science knowledge we could systematize, & our statistical methods from “If a Statistical Model Predicts That Common Events Should Occur Only Once in 10,000 Elections, Maybe It’s the Wrong Model” with @DannyCEbanks and @Jonathan_N_Katz. GaryKing.org/electit We make these forecasts available (including all the input data, methods, and procedures), not only for their possible public interest, but because academics learn by making themselves vulnerable to being proven wrong. We will make no changes to our post-primary forecasts (which do not use polls) but will update two other sets on this site incorporating poll results as new ones appear. Comments on the paper or forecasts are welcome!
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Jon Green retweeted
New 2026 US House & Senate election forecasts, using all political science knowledge we could systematize, & our statistical methods from “If a Statistical Model Predicts That Common Events Should Occur Only Once in 10,000 Elections, Maybe It’s the Wrong Model” with @DannyCEbanks and @Jonathan_N_Katz. GaryKing.org/electit We make these forecasts available (including all the input data, methods, and procedures), not only for their possible public interest, but because academics learn by making themselves vulnerable to being proven wrong. We will make no changes to our post-primary forecasts (which do not use polls) but will update two other sets on this site incorporating poll results as new ones appear. Comments on the paper or forecasts are welcome!
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Jon Green retweeted
Listening to @UpFirst podcast increases trust in podcast news + NPR but that doesn’t spill over into trust in news more generally. Glad this paper w/ @junghwanyang @simonsaysnothin @p_barbera is out!
Randomizing uptake of NPR's @UpFirst podcast for 5 days increases news consumption & knowledge of events (esp. among more right-leaning voters), trust in NPR, etc but not trust in the news more generally; no effect on attitudes or political beliefs. An @andyguess et al. joint
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chevy didn't make a 327 in '55, the 327 didn't come out until '62
A break from politics to slap down this rage bait AI slop. Top one is AI. That was not the Hot Wheels logo in 1997. The logo as shown debuted in 2012. Bottom one looks like a McDonalds giveaway. They don't have the level of detail of main line Hot Wheels (they're free)
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We are excited to announce the schedule for SoWEPS-11, the Southern Workshop in Empirical Political Science, held at Duke on October 29–30! 🎉 Check out the full program below and register here: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F…
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amazing that people still try to dunk on Nate Silver for having the least-wrong model of its kind in 2016
Replying to @NateSilver538
Friends don't let friends listen to nate silver
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folks on twitter will really go "oh you think grounding your inferences in the available data works? that pales in comparison to my strategy of just knowing the true state of the world" and then not know the true state of the world
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Kimberly Guilfoyle’s traveling stylist, Fancy James, is an immediate first ballot hall of fame minor Trump world character
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Jon Green retweeted
📢New paper in @The_JOP on the reciprocal nature of citizens’ support for democratic transgressions. We show that citizens reciprocate undemocratic behavior: When confronted with violations by political opponents, citizens’ support for transgressions by their own side doubles
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There's a story going around: after the drone strikes on Yandex data centres, comments on AfD and MAGA accounts collapsed. We monitor 17,000+ politicians, media and civil society accounts in 30+ countries. 50,000+ posts a day. So we checked. We don't see it. 🧵
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it’s essentially a crowdfunded road trip where you’re constantly the center of attention
Not only is there no downside, some candidates appear to find the running experience quite enjoyable even if they obviously won’t win the nomination (hence Chris Christie talking about running again)
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Jon Green retweeted
🚨New paper🚨out in @SocMedSoc w/ John Wagner and @jennifer_oser 🎉 We all know who's a political influencer on social media, right? Well... we may THINK we do, but what we're actually measuring is very different. How different? 🧵👇
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models getting better at writing code and worse at writing-writing was arguably one of the better-case scenarios for social science tbh
AI can do essentially all the technical parts of empirical social science research now---but there's still an essential role for human researchers and universities. It's been 9 months since we started exploring how AI was going to transform empirical social science research. Here's a periodic update on how my thinking has evolved since then: (1) The most powerful AI models, including the kinds of multi-agent systems delivering recent math results, are now capable of doing essentially any kind of technical empirical social science research you could desire. I no longer write any data collection, munging, or analysis code directly. (2) Norms are evolving slower than I expected, but it is increasingly seen as weird if someone posts a working paper without evidence that they have used AI to verify that the results are directly reproducible with their code and data. This is a great sign. (3) AI has, if anything, gotten WORSE rather than better at writing. As a result, the best papers combine AI-driven empirical analyses with human writing (though AI is quite helpful for things like managing bibliographies, finding relevant web links, etc). (4) Human direction is still essential for pointing AI at the most interesting and most valuable empirical questions, and for interpreting the results, making sense of them, and communicating them. We are going to need institutions that are independent of the labs that can verify knowledge claims and direct AI-driven research towards the most fundamental questions of knowledge that AI labs won't be positioned to pursue effectively themselves. This is a tremendous opportunity for places like Stanford, and I'm excited to see how it evolves.
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vote share is a continuous variable
Sorry, no, winning in Michigan in a D+9 year does not show you can win anywhere. A Dem majority requires wins in Alaska, Texas, and other states that El-Sayed would lose even in a very friendly year. slowboring.com/p/an-honest-f…
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