content among other things
Austin, Texas
Joined October 2020
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We are watching the greatest trade of all time unfolding. Saylor will sell unlimited amounts of equity and debt to buy BTC.
Size and conviction are what makes trades legendary. Saylor's profits from this will far exceed Soros' and Paulson's legendary trades. The greats just keep adding to their position until they can't anymore.
The end result is that Saylor keeps issuing equity and debt until MSTR trades at a discount to NAV. But NAV at that point might be hundreds of billions or even a trillion.
“The credit market isn’t structured to raise hundreds of billions of story debt,” he added. “Equity investors can earn multiples of their money. Lenders are earning a spread.”
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Spatterings retweeted
This paragraph from $META's inside 10-q filling may mark the official announcement that the funding environment for the AI buildout has turned the corner. (HT: Barclays' Alexander Altmann)
So sorry but this is what the next year is going to be. Chop Fest
youtube.com/watch?v=CSvFpBOe…
Spatterings retweeted
“Las Vegas visitors fell to 3.03M in August, a -4.3% decline from August 2025 and 136,700 fewer visitors vs July. Harry Reid International Airport showed airport passenger traffic dropped by 9% compared to August 2025.” - CDC Gaming
Vegas has never seen this kind of decline outside of COVID and GFC. Absolutely wild and sad to see “America’s playground” go through this. No solutions in sight.
Market Internals are 2022 levels bad, if not worse in some ways. A lot of past bubbles, ie nuclear, EVOTL, etc. are getting taken to the woodshed
Spatterings retweeted
Robinhood is bringing America its first true perps.
No expiry, with P&L settled every 15 minutes.
A new chapter for US derivatives.
Spatterings retweeted
We believe superintelligence will create significant new opportunities for all people and businesses. Meta already serves billions of people at scale and helps hundreds of millions of businesses reach customers. Today we are starting the next major pillar of our business, Meta Enterprise Platform, to help businesses use AI to grow and transform in new ways as well.
I would guess that SALP is punting on calls prior to the S-1 being filed, would expect in the next week or so?
Spatterings retweeted
>be me
>discover effective altruism
>apparently normal charity is inefficient
>why donate to random sad thing when spreadsheet can tell you optimal sad thing
>fair enough
>buy mosquito nets
>save lives
>numbers look good
>feel powerful
>couple years later
>someone asks an innocent question
>why only count people alive today
>huh
>future people matter too
>obviously
>my grandchildren shouldn't matter less just because they haven't spawned yet
>reasonable.jpg
>keep following logic
>what about their grandchildren
>also yes
>what about people in 500 years
>sure
>5000 years
>why not
>500 million years
>starting to get weird but morality is morality
>open calculator
>humanity could survive for an astronomically long time
>could colonize galaxy
>could have trillions upon trillions of descendants
>maybe digital people too
>maybe simulated civilizations
>maybe dyson spheres full of happy uploaded minds
>calculator starts smoking
>realize currently living humans are rounding error
>8 billion people suddenly looking extremely beta
>future contains potentially 10^something people
>can't even fit beneficiaries in google sheets
>new moral priority unlocked
>protect the long-term future
>stop thinking in units of "people helped"
>start thinking in "fraction of cosmic endowment preserved"
>malaria?
>terrible
>but only kills existing humans
>AI extinction could delete the entire light cone
>nuclear war could permanently derail civilization
>bad institutions could lock in terrible values for ten million years
>someone invents wrong constitution in 2140
>quadrillions suffer
>better fund governance workshop now
>friend says maybe we should improve hospitals
>explain opportunity cost
>friend says hospitals are full of actual sick people
>explain scope sensitivity
>friend stops inviting me to dinner
>need to decide what to fund
>easy
>expected value
>suppose project has one in a million chance of preventing extinction
>sounds tiny
>but extinction destroys 10^50 future lives
>multiply
>mother of god
>$10 million project has expected value of several galaxies
>charity evaluation complete
>someone asks where the one-in-a-million number came from
>expert judgement
>which expert
>us
>how calibrated
>extremely thoughtfully
>reduce estimate to one in ten million to be conservative
>still beats curing cancer by 38 orders of magnitude
>epistemic robustness achieved
>someone says maybe project doesn't work
>assign 20% chance
>still astronomical
>maybe project makes problem worse
>assign 5% chance
>still astronomical
>why 5
>because 30 felt pessimistic
>publish 46-page report
>contains seventeen sensitivity analyses
>every sensitivity analysis begins after assuming intervention has positive sign
>critic says you're multiplying enormous hypothetical stakes by extremely uncertain probabilities
>yes
>that's literally why it's important
>critic says the uncertainty might be structural rather than numerical
>make probability smaller
>critic says no, I mean maybe your model is wrong
>make probability smaller again
>critic begins rubbing temples
>discover AI safety
>perfect longtermist cause
>AI might kill everyone
>or create utopia
>or seize galaxy
>or tile universe with paperclips
>or create billions of conscious software minds
>finally a problem with numbers big enough for me
>start AI safety nonprofit
>mission: prevent dangerous AI
>hire smartest people available
>smartest people immediately start building better AI to understand dangerous AI
>interesting
>we must understand capabilities to understand safety
>we must scale models to study alignment
>we must race ahead so less responsible actors don't get there first
>we must deploy systems to learn how deployment can go wrong
>we must build the thing quickly because building the thing quickly is dangerous
>outsider asks why the people most worried about AI apocalypse all work at AI companies
>complicated field
>company releases stronger model
>very concerned
>company begins training even stronger model
>extremely concerned
>company raises $14 billion
>concern reaches unprecedented levels
>need to influence government
>future is at stake
>normal democratic process too slow
>politicians don't understand exponential curves
>public doesn't understand x-risk
>experts must guide them
>who counts as expert
>people who understand x-risk
>who understands x-risk
>our friends
>someone objects that this seems politically convenient
>explain we're representing future generations
>future generations unavailable for comment
>develop concept of value lock-in
>terrifying possibility that one ideology controls civilization forever
>therefore extremely important that civilization adopts correct values before lock-in
>whose values
>let's circle back
>begin with impartial morality
>end with small group of people deciding what quadrillions of hypothetical beings would want
>beautiful arc
>meanwhile actual humans keep doing annoying things
>voting wrong
>having parochial attachments
>loving family more than strangers
>caring about local community
>getting upset when told their suffering is cosmically negligible
>evolutionary biases everywhere
>explain that moral intuition cannot be trusted
>except intuition that future digital people count
>and intuition that extinction is uniquely bad
>and intuition that our probability estimates are sane
>and intuition that our institutional choices improve the future
>those intuitions survived peer review
>someone donates $5k to local homeless shelter
>inefficient
>could have funded 0.0000000000003% of an AI governance researcher
>think of all the simulated people you just killed
>okay maybe don't phrase it that way publicly
>PR team says "future generations deserve a voice"
>much better
>journalist asks what longtermism means
>say "future people matter"
>everyone agrees
>great
>journalist asks what follows from that
>well technically we should redirect enormous resources toward low-probability interventions affecting astronomical futures
>journalist raises eyebrow
>return to "future people matter"
>motte has entered the chat
>critic: of course future people matter
>me: glad we agree
>critic: I don't agree that your institute knows how to help them
>me: why do you hate our grandchildren
>eventually notice uncomfortable implication
>if future value dominates everything
>then helping people today mostly matters through effects on future
>education matters because future institutions
>health matters because future productivity
>democracy matters because future trajectory
>human beings slowly become instrumental variables in their own moral philosophy
>see starving child
>feel compassion
>check spreadsheet
>child's direct welfare contribution negligible
>but perhaps childhood nutrition improves national institutional quality
>compassion restored
>tell myself this is impartial altruism
>one day assistant asks obvious question
>"how do you know your intervention actually improves the far future?"
>silence
>open spreadsheet
>increase column width
>add confidence interval
>assistant asks again
>"no, I mean how do you know the sign is positive?"
>stare into cosmic light cone
>10^50 people staring back
>none of them exist
>none of them can tell me
>none of them can falsify my assumptions
>realize I have invented the perfect constituency
>infinitely important
>completely silent
>and always represented by me
Between the expansion of gas turbines and reciprocating engines, 2030 data center capex would need to support 40+ GW of runrate capacity for everything to clear
⚡ Today's gas turbine crunch could become tomorrow's glut.
A surge in power demand is stretching global gas turbine manufacturing to its limits, lengthening delivery times and pushing order books deep into the next decade. But the industry has been here before – and history warns that today's scarcity could give way to overcapacity.
BloombergNEF's Global Gas Turbine Manufacturing Outlook maps who is racing to expand, where the new capacity is landing, and the supply chain bottlenecks that could hold it all back.
Read the latest for the full picture: bloom.bg/4yBwN23
Idk if I have ever seen something as bearish from a sentiment standpoint as SALP returning to the scene of the crime
Spatterings retweeted
Spatterings retweeted
$META I predict will imminently shutoff Anthropic and OpenAI model access for employees. This may very well affect the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs.
Watermelon will be Fable class. This is 100% proof that Meta's experiment of having employees generate tens of thousands of RL envs works. There is no shortcut to doing this grunt work. (personally I think making RL envs is kinda fun)
Compute + Data + a ton of RL envs + some good people == Fable. There is no secret to frontier LLMs.
$META is obviously trying to drive down the price per token across the industry. I predict it will work.
