@NYC When I was your age, television was called books. - The Princess Bride
NYC
Joined April 2015
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Great piece. Let's hope that we all have the courage to be honest with ourselves and demand others do the same so that "bullshitting" ourselves and others goes away and isn't amplified greatly by AI/LLMS.
Seek truth no matter how much it hurts instead of the ecstacy of delusion.
Lightning retweeted
This is the most insane demo I’ve seen. Subvocal YC F26 lets you speak completely silently and reads the minute movements of your face. So you can talk to your AI anytime.
AI + sensors is magic.
What’s crazier is they built this in 4 months. This demo was live yesterday evening at the YC office.
We’ve raised $1.3M from YC & Afore Capital so you never have to type or speak again.
Typing is slow. Talking into your computer is awkward. Subvocal fixes both
Our glasses give you the speed of speech without you making a sound or touching a keyboard.
It tracks your internal speech muscles with non-contact sensing and decodes silent, almost invisible mouthing into text at more than 200 words/min.
Pre-orders are now live at:
subvocal.co/preorder?utm_sou…
Lightning retweeted
Each of my posts has dozens of obvious and numbing AI slopreplies.
Worse, when humans really do reply (real example: someone from Anthropic addressing the issue I posted about), the "replies" algorithm does not surface them first
You can't really call this social media anymore.
Lightning retweeted
"Analysts went with the agent's lean 86% of the time."
"77% repeated the agent's argument in at least one answer, sometimes word for word. Only 15% credited the agent. About half called the final recommendation more their own than the agent's."
Oh my god
Lightning retweeted
Meta had an internal PR plan to try and discredit Jon Haidt because he was a critic of social media.
Meta was going to recruit academics, like Andrew Gelman, to write take down pieces. They were trying to turn academics against one another through a "whisper strategy".
This is a very serious problem for open academic debate. If academics who share negative evidence about a platform are targeted by campaigns to smear our credibility, we are in deep, deep trouble.
This creates a very serious conflict of interest for anyone who is paid to do this.
law360.com/articles/2542517/…
Lightning retweeted
There’s still a lot of misinformation about perpetual futures floating around.
Let’s start with the premise that a futures contract has to expire. Where does it say that in the statute?
Calling a perp a swap doesn’t create a different risk to the financial system. What matters is how the contract is margined, cleared and managed when someone defaults. If a perp can operate with the same safeguards as a traditional future, why should the absence of an expiration date exclude it from that framework?
Then there’s the claim that perps necessarily come with massive leverage and auto-deleveraging. That's just totally wrong. You absolutely can build a perp with reasonable leverage and no ADL. You could also build a quarterly futures contract with massive leverage and auto-deleveraging. Those are design choices.
I’m in favor of perps because they can address real inefficiencies in existing markets. An oil ETF could maintain its exposure without the trading costs and slippage of predictably rolling futures. A stock perp could pass the economic benefit of hard-to-borrow demand to the long holder—value that rarely reaches retail shareholders today.
Producers still need traditional futures to hedge forward production. Perps complement those contracts. List both. Let people use the instrument that meets their needs.
More from my discussion with @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway on Odd Lots: youtube.com/watch?v=QidpqykD…
Lightning retweeted
This is one of the biggest challenges to traditional payment networks like Visa and Mastercard, and Stripe launched it, for free, available to agents via CLI.
The future of a no interchange world just got a little brighter.
Lightning retweeted
Ultra-processed foods supply more than 50% of the calories Americans eat.
Even children ages 1-5 get more than half their calories from UPFs.
This matters for several reasons. UPFs can drive overeating; they contain less fiber, micronutrients, and protein per calorie; and seem to uniquely promote fat gain (especially visceral fat) and inflammation.
And in children, UPF Intake is associated with faster increases in BMI, fat mass, and waist circumference. We should not be giving our children ultraprocessed foods, especially sugar-sweetened beverages. Minimally processed foods should be the foundation of meals and snacks, for everyone!
Lightning retweeted
China consumed more coal in the last four years (2022–2025) than the entire world consumed throughout the 19th century.
Lightning retweeted
Oh FFS. Thank you for your concern Sam, but don’t spread your FUD and doom bait in my waters.
I lead one of the most utilized Linux operating systems in the world for data centers and enterprises, and I founded its predecessor too.
While AI is surely accelerating finding human created security issues, it is a temporary problem, and most open source project leads have already figured out how to also use AI to reduce new bugs moving forward.
Here is a graph from GKH (who maintains the stable kernel) on how many CVEs they are remediating per release:
github.com/gregkh/kernel-dev…
This graph describes how much better each release is now getting:
github.com/gregkh/kernel-dev…
This doom based marketing approach that the AI labs are pushing is really short sighted. While this will of course drive business to us, I find it unethical to distort the truth and use scare tactics in messaging.
The greater truth is that AI is making the software industry more secure, by identifying the human errors in code, and soon we will end up in a much better place.
🚨Sam Altman says the internet can no longer be SECURED by patching bugs.
"I no longer think we're going to be able to just patch all the bugs," the OpenAI CEO said, warning smarter models can find "hardware level insane stuff."
He says OpenAI can't responsibly open source its best model "anytime soon," but the open source world isn't far behind: "Not super."
Lightning retweeted
Neoclouds: Full Context on Financing
Talking to @liamdaltonjr who has strong network on Wall Street, debt markets have only shut off for unsecured GPUs. What @elonmusk says is not true for hyperscaler backed bare metal deals or investment grade equivalent.
This is aggressive book talking by omitting full context.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Lightning retweeted
I've been looking into public benchmarks and am astounded by the poor quality vs. how much we rely on them as an industry.
@xeophon pointed me to this excellent site epoch.ai/benchmarks/ which is an independent third party which scrutinizes benchmarks and "looks at the data" 💪
For example, here are some popular benchmarks we all rely on. Before trusting a benchmark its worth running them and inspecting examples the grader failed carefully, to get a sense of the quality.
I'm continuing to look more into this, and will write something up eventually once I've collected more data, but I think this is an important subject.
Lightning retweeted
We can't brute force compute all possible moves in Go, a static game with a simple 19 x 19 grid, yet somehow people think we're going to simulate a dynamic system of trillions of cells each containing trillions of molecules.
If you had an exponential amount of compute you could solve simulate biology exactly and wouldn't need to run any experiments.
Some of you will think "of course, but that's an unrealistic assumption" and others will think "no, you need experiments even with that much compute. That's just How It's Done".
You would of course need evaluations once you have a solution, but you don't in principle need experiments to find it: Experiments are a way to save compute, dating from a time when it was much more expensive.
And I think the presentation is exponential but real systems aren't irreducibly exponential. AlphaFold worked, after all.
Lightning retweeted
US energy company execs have resigned in disgust as the Trump family is caught secretly expediting the funneling of $25 billion from a sanctioned Russian energy giant in exchange for allowing Russians to obtain a natural gas project in Alaska.
According to investigations by The New York Times and Financial Times, Russia's Novatek allegedly concealed its financial involvement in the American project through a UAE-linked intermediary.
Gentry Beach, a longtime Trump ally and close friend of Donald Trump Jr., signed an agreement with Novatek to pursue natural gas development in Alaska. Reuters documented the arrangement in February.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin discussed this cooperation on the Alaska energy project with Trump's representatives, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, during negotiations involving Russia and Ukraine.
The controversy deepened when Polar Train LNG's CEO, Joel Riddle, raised concerns about concealed Russian financing and possible sanctions violations. He departed in September, followed by other senior executives.
The Financial Times also described discussions about a potential arrangement under which Novatek would provide technology for the Alaska project in exchange for sanctions relief benefiting its Arctic LNG 2 development in Siberia.
According to The New York Times, Riddle and two other departing executives warned the Trump administration about the Russian financing and urged officials to investigate.
The White House maintains that the project was mentioned only briefly and that no detailed discussions took place. There is no established evidence that Kushner or Witkoff knew about the allegedly concealed financing. Polar Train LNG denies wrongdoing.
The central question is how a sanctioned Russian energy company became involved in a major American energy venture while Putin was discussing potential economic cooperation with Trump's representatives and a longtime Trump family associate was pursuing a separate agreement with the same Russian company.
Selling Alaska to the Russians or selling Ukraine to the Russians - to the Trump family it's all the same.
ft.com/content/e9cfbfbb-e65a…
Lightning retweeted
Average US family health insurance premium...
1999: $6k
2002: $8k
2005: $11k
2008: $13k
2011: $15k
2014: $17k
2017: $19k
2020: $21k
2023: $24k
2026: $28k
That's a 387% increase since 1999 (6.0% per year).
(Note: US CPI inflation has increased 2.6%/year)
Lightning retweeted
Thursday's 10-year Treasury yield decline of 0.193 percentage point (to 4.952%) is the largest single day yield decline since March 10, 2023, which is the day Silicon Valley Bank failed.
Lightning retweeted
The USDA grade on a steak is a marbling score from one slice of the animal. It isn't a safety inspection.
Prime, Choice and Select are the 3 grades you'll see at retail, and they're set by how much fat is flecked through the meat. After the carcass is split between the 12th and 13th ribs, a grader or a camera looks at the exposed face of the ribeye and scores the marbling. Prime needs slightly abundant marbling, Choice needs small, Select needs slight. That one score goes on the whole animal. No other cut gets looked at, and tenderness and flavor are never measured, only inferred from the fat.
Inspection is required on every carcass but grading isn't. The packer asks for it and pays USDA by the hour, $101 an hour as of this month. About 68% of graded beef is now scored by camera, by USDA's own count.
In 2006, 3% of graded beef was Prime, 56% was Choice and 41% was Select. By the end of 2024 it was 11% Prime, 72% Choice and 14% Select.
Prime is typically 30% to 50% more per pound than Choice, and Choice is 10% to 30% more per pound than Select.
Lightning retweeted
Friendly remind that Trevor Milton was found guilty of securities and wire fraud, sentenced to 4 years in prison and ordered to pay a $1,000,000 fine plus $168,000,000 in restitution.
He then donated $3,200,000 to Trumps Campaign.
Donald Trump then pardoned him.
As a result, Trevor no longer has to pay his civil fines or restitution. He also comes out with a clean record meaning no job restrictions so he can go back to working in security-related positions.
Not so sure the federal reserve should care about coreweave. Why not let the free market determine what the fair value is for the debt?
@JonathanJLevin