Semi-retiredly shitposting online, on a different blue website
An Island
Joined January 2012
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coming back to the hellsite after a two year hiatus, the #1 thing about elon's algo is how fast it adjusts. click on one france riot pic and you get fed 500 more, one poll and you get 500 more, ad infinitum. it slots you into a silo and rots your brain faster than boomerbook.
a radio show host just casually insulting the intelligence of everyone he comes into contact with, because he's been talking to a certain type of audience for so long he's lost the ability to do anything else but grift
Democrats are going to crash out when they see that Hispanic voting is going to land somewhere around 60-40 Republican advantage in Texas.
It will be interesting to watch.
@WBAP247NEWS
Ralston makes it official:
Before too many more people make fun of InDePeNdEnT SwInGs, Susquehanna made this same error for the first hour or so of Kalshi's election parlays so there are a few dozen or more sharps who got like 10-1 on Dems winning Nebraska AND Michigan
This is blowing past the most optimistic projections I had a week ago. Lombardo is a large underdog relying on a lot of crossover to survive. Whatever, it's Nevada, a tertiary election at best. But it's *very* predictive of every other election and it's shifting infinity points.
Day 7. Sunday's about half normal turnout and counties have weird hours but the rurals managed to collapse anyway.
Rs will prob lead EV Mon, maybe Tues. Wed-Fri, at min, will be minority and youth heavy. If rurals don't turn out by Tuesday they won't at all.
that (DataRepublican map) is a 232-266 spread, midpoint 249 seats
my model has 250 seats
"my" 250 assumes a D+9.x GCB (with under-the-hood movement of minority voters based on @lxeagle17's Argument survey and early voting results)
so, loosely, her internals say D+9-10 or so
[email protected] retweeted
Lots of people are asking me where to give their money - if you can only do one race, I’d give what you can to @MaryPeltola
Several reasons:
1) It’s a small state, so your money goes further per expected senate vote
2) Direct donations buy 19x ads per dollar than committees due to the unit rule - this also frees up the DSCC and SMP to put their money on states with smaller IE/coord ad price spreads and frees them up to spend more on digital
3) it’s likely going to be close!
It’s not too late! Any money you send today will get spent immediately and will provide real relief to an overworked campaign workers across a bunch of orgs!
secure.actblue.com/donate/mp…
[email protected] retweeted
TEXAS IPEV DAY 6 UPDATE
Yesterday was the first weekend voting. The 2024 EV - 2026 recall shift is now down to 8.4 points. Adding in the other rural counties, being conservative this implies a 5 pt shift (Trump +8.7 electorate among 2024 voters).
The weekend voting saw the expected bump for Democrats, who reversed the reddening through the end of the first week. Places like Collin/Denton/Montgomery all had their bluest day on record, as they did in 2024.
We now have Bexar, and El Paso added in, and they both behave like big metros. El Paso Dems especially are putting up an extremely strong electorate shift. Tarrant Dems recovered quite a bit as well.
We added Wilson County - blue collar deep-red San Antonio exurbs. As is true with Hardin, the electorate is barely budging. But, as with Hardin, their turnout rate is low (<80% of 2024 so far for both). The same is true for the white precincts in Nederland/Groves in Jefferson County - their electorate is barely budging but their turnout is lacking.
The Latino shift is really strong still in Houston/Dallas/Tarrant/rural Hidalgo/Cameron - Dems still have a lot of votes out in Bexar/Nueces.
HD-144 in South Houston/Pasadena has a D+10 turnout shift among 2024 voters *and* 20% of the electorate not having cast a ballot in 2024. Wonder how that will break.
So far nothing too surprising here quite yet - the U-shape is manifesting, and the Republican 3/3 voters are going to continue mid-loading. Dem low prop voters are going to continue backloading towards the end of the week/EDay.
We are down from 64% of voters being 3/3 on day 1 to just 52% - so low prop voters are selecting weekends.
Sunday should probably see an influx of black voters into the electorate, followed by some red days Monday/Tuesday and then the last few days after that I would expect to get bluer.
Stay tuned for more, we will do our next Space on Wednesday!
Interactive: claude.ai/artifact/QSaAiFYUj…
ITT we run a poll in literally September, find a totally insane D-R congressional split, and then sit on it for three weeks until early vote proves it wasn’t lying
Concord Public Opinion Partners poll | 9/26-9/30 LV (released 10/24)
Nevada Governor 2026
🟥Joe Lombardo 43% (incumbent)
🟦Aaron Ford 42%
——
Generic congressional ballot 2026 (Nevada)
🟦Democratic 48%
🟥Republican 33%
concordpublicopinionpartners…
On the other hand, while ET Nerd is ~rationally coping 2024 style, he's also gotta deal with lots of these people, so who's to say what's right or wrong to publish
of the states he identifies as going *well* for Rs, one has no fed race and Gov is Safe D, one has no fed race and Gov is now Lean/Likely D, one started crushing R hopes and dreams yesterday, and the fourth is Florida which *still* hasn't closed out FL-Gov somehow
My overall outlook on the early vote so far is this:
Democrats started big and have a midterm where they have momentum. Republicans have the map advantage.
It's all about Republicans getting their voters out.
So far, Republicans have good news in some states (FL, NV, AZ, MI as examples) and worse in others (NC, GA as examples), along with a middle ground (TX, OH, IA as examples).
For this next week of early voting, Republicans need to see an increase in their voters or voting demographics (some states we don't get party registration).
There is also election day where Republicans will do well, especially in red states. But as I have been saying, it's much better and smarter to have votes banked. Patterns that occur in early voting do follow into election day, and that's where Rs could win (or lose) the Senate and other races.
I'm thankful for the money/luxury of being able to shitpost all day instead of having an employer or substack to please, because wild horses couldn't drag the words "being too blunt is bad for my followers' morale" out of me and I would simply rather jump off a cliff
Rs shouldn't worry; this will reverse itself as soon as rural Nevada comes out to vote
The early voting blog is updated.
It continues to look a lot like 2022, when Dems did well in NV except for the minor thing of losing the gov's race. But this time Trump is president and numbers are not good for GOP.
Rather be a D than an R right now.
thenevadaindependent.com/art…
my platform is big enough such that being too blunt can have an effect on morale
my platform is big enough such that being too blunt can have an effect on morale
my platform is big enough such that being too blunt can have an effect on morale
my platform is big enough such tha
I've been asked about early voting analysis.
The dilemma I have is that my platform is big enough such that being too blunt can have an effect on morale. I'll push out new states and tools out to my website soon, but won't announce them here on 𝕏.
I will be giving @realJeremyCarl my predictions a week in advance so he can hold me accountable after Election Day.
You MUST turn out and bring their friends, and brace yourself on election night. Even TX is going to be a fight.
underrated take. As bad as Schumer is at one of his jobs, his other one - candidate recruitment - got Dems +WAR candidates in every single important state. 6-7 seats are competitive solely because Dems will outperform Generic Democrat
the world revolves around the sun. too bad my audience is from the 16th century. anyway here's a chart
The rural vote turning out at Bataan death march rates nationwide is one thing. The youth vote also doing this at the same time nationwide means other Rs have to turn out at North Korean rates on EDay to make a dent.
