🚨 NEW HANOVER EARLY VOTE — OCT. 28, 2:04 PM 🗳️ 2,356 new votes today NEW VOTES TODAY: ⚪ UNA: +882 🔴 REP: +796 🔵 DEM: +723 SINCE 1:00 PM UPDATE: ⚪ UNA: +203 🔴 REP: +187 🔵 DEM: +163 CUMULATIVE TOTALS & PARTY SHARE SHIFTS: ⚪ UNA: 18,733 (37.32%) ↔ 0.00 pp 🔵 DEM: 17,331 (34.53%) ↓ 0.19 pp 🔴 REP: 13,887 (27.67%) ↑ 0.31 pp 🗳️ CUMULATIVE TOTAL: 50,193 votes

🚨 NEW HANOVER EARLY VOTE — OCT. 28, 1:00 PM 🗳️ 1,822 new votes today NEW VOTES TODAY: ⚪ UNA: +679 (37.3%) 🔴 REP: +609 (33.4%) 🔵 DEM: +560 (30.7%) SINCE 11:00 AM UPDATE: ⚪ UNA: +396 🔵 DEM: +313 🔴 REP: +303 CUMULATIVE TOTALS & PARTY SHARE SHIFTS: ⚪ UNA: 18,530 (37.31%) ↓ 0.01 pp 🔵 DEM: 17,168 (34.57%) ↓ 0.15 pp 🔴 REP: 13,700 (27.59%) ↑ 0.23 pp 🗳️ CUMULATIVE TOTAL: 49,659 votes

🚨 NEW HANOVER EARLY VOTE — OCT. 28, 11:00 AM 🗳️ 855 new votes today NEW VOTES TODAY: 🔴 REP: +307 (35.9%) 🔵 DEM: +247 (28.9%) ⚪ UNA: +283 (33.1%) SINCE 10:06 AM UPDATE: 🔴 REP: +108 🔵 DEM: +83 ⚪ UNA: +88 CUMULATIVE TOTALS & PARTY SHARE SHIFTS: ⚪ UNA: 18,134 (37.24%) ↓ 0.08 pp 🔵 DEM: 16,855 (34.62%) ↓ 0.10 pp 🔴 REP: 13,397 (27.51%) ↑ 0.15 pp 🗳️ CUMULATIVE TOTAL: 48,693 votes

🚨 NEW HANOVER NC EARLY VOTE — OCT. 28, 8:53 AM 🗳️ 173 new votes today NEW VOTES BY PARTY: ⚪ UNA: +45 (26.0%) 🔵 DEM: +58 (33.5%) 🔴 REP: +61 (35.3%) CUMULATIVE TOTALS & PARTY SHARE SHIFTS: ⚪ UNA: 17,896 (37.28%) ↓ 0.04 pp 🔵 DEM: 16,666 (34.71%) ↓ 0.01 pp 🔴 REP: 13,151 (27.39%) ↑ 0.03 pp 🗳️ CUMULATIVE TOTAL: 48,010 votes

One thing I’ve been curious about is how we define “low-propensity” voters. Should all 2/4, 1/4, and 0/4 voters automatically be classified as low propensity? Or could some actually be emerging high-propensity voters who simply haven’t had enough opportunities to establish a consistent voting history? I decided to dig into these groups to see whether we could better distinguish genuinely low-propensity voters from those who may be developing into reliable voters. Here’s how I approached each category: 2/4 voters: Those who voted in both 2022 and 2024, and again in 2026, are arguably demonstrating higher propensity. They’ve now participated in three consecutive general elections. 1/4 voters: Those who registered after 2022 and voted in 2024 are more likely to be emerging high-propensity voters than those who registered before 2022 but participated in only one election or skipped 2024 entirely. 0/4 voters: This is the trickiest category. However, voters who registered after 2024 may have greater potential to develop into high-propensity voters than those who were registered before 2024, skipped multiple elections, and only participated this year. So what did I find? Based on these criteria: 2/4 voters: Approximately 45% have now voted in three consecutive general elections, suggesting they may be better classified as higher-propensity voters. The remaining 55% more closely fit the traditional low-propensity classification. 1/4 voters: Roughly 78% fall into the category I would consider potential emerging high-propensity voters. 0/4 voters: Approximately 90% also fall into that category, largely because they haven't had the same opportunity to establish a voting history. The bigger takeaway: Not every voter classified as low propensity is necessarily an infrequent voter. Some may simply be newer voters who haven't had enough election cycles to demonstrate consistent participation. Of course, this doesn't guarantee they'll continue voting. But it does suggest we should be careful about treating all 2/4, 1/4, and 0/4 voters as equally low propensity. This is something I plan to track over the coming election cycles to see whether these emerging voters actually develop into consistent, high-propensity voters.