
ex-head, vix and variance @morganstanley. @stanford, @aws enterprise ai trends
Joined December 2022
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This S-1 is so uninformative. No Q3 numbers in it also
Anthropic has filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC related to its proposed IPO.
Read more: anthropic.com/news/s1-sec
Legal disclaimer: A registration statement relating to these securities has been filed with the SEC but has not yet become effective. These securities may not be sold, nor may offers to buy be accepted, prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective. This post does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy these securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.
Can’t take him seriously considering he missed out on both OpenAI and Anthropic
As someone with a portfolio of energized land assets here is what I am seeing:
1. Neoclouds are disorganized and poorly capitalized. Some are definitely better than others however.
2. Hyperscalers are intractable, bureaucratic organizations that take 3 months to do an NDA and want 18mo escrow periods. We built our portfolio by competing against these terms because of our speed and simplicity. The more future assets orgs like ours win, the bigger the problem for the hyperscalers downstream (see 3).
3. There are delays in the existing pipeline that will catch people off guard in 2027. Hyperacalers will (obviously) react by focusing on their own internal compute needs over any third party. If the third party is a model company, they will tell them to go through their model router where they will also take a non-trivial vig. Them telling Ant they have no compute for them (rumored in Ant’s S-1) if true is a huge tell that this is already happening.
All of this is to say that it does look like there will be a lot of partially stranded compute and compute sitting in inventory in 2027 than is currently forecasted. This is bought and paid for but effectively underearning (below total cost of capital) or collecting dust. We see this as true for everyone - model companies, hyperscalers, neoclouds except ONE (you can guess which one).
This dislocation will benefit two kinds of orgs: the non-bureaucratic big scalers who can build industrial scale quickly and the nimble, well capitalized players feeding them.
2027 will be a turbulent year because it will clear out a bunch of wrong/bad bets. It will also be a consolidation year for a few.
John Hwang retweeted
I found footage of 20yo Dario Amodei speaking against the Iraq War in 2003.
18 years before Anthropic even existed
John Hwang retweeted
Replying to @mazeincoding
Maybe "This role may not exist in 12 months" finally came true?
John Hwang retweeted
西成に長く住んでいた日本人の高齢者達を追い出して、どんどん民泊用マンションに建て直しているのは、西成のチャイナタウンを主導して牛耳って「西成のドン」と呼ばれているのは中国出身の不動産会社「盛龍のオーナーである林伝竜。
これはただの侵略だろ?
安全保障上の問題でもある。
YouTube mobile app’s dark mode has been broke for a whole week in production
@Google
What is @Anthropic even doing? They don't even have a decision model
Railway shouldn't be in infra business. This is like their 3rd major incident in a single year.
An urgent notice from the Railway team
blog.railway.com/p/security-…
Vercel be selling tokens like it’s a Gym pass
DeepSeek v4.1 Flash (1017) is now included in ▲ Token Pass.
Fast, mind-bogglingly cheap, and served with ZDR (zero-data retention).
It's a phenomenal model to run subagents that execute plans conceived by larger and more expensive models. You can port TypeScript to Rust 10 times and not run out of credits 😂
John Hwang retweeted
The husband is the main breadwinner in about 55% of marriages, down from 85% in 1972, per PEW.
John Hwang retweeted
“Honesty is a very expensive gift. Don’t expect it from cheap people.”
— Warren Buffett
ChatGPT might release their on EHR within a year.
Calling it now.
ChatGPT is now the largest medical record sync from hospitals to consumers, passing Apple.
I'm glad we can all access our medical records through the apps we choose. Rightly so!
We're working with Epic and hospitals to reduce the API load on their servers. The current setup is archaic - the equivalent of refreshing your inbox instead of getting a push when email arrives.
FHIR Subscriptions can solve this & reduce strain on the system.




















