
economics, economics, economics, and other things FernUni Mannheim @MannheimBSchool @GESSuniMannheim @iza_bonn
Joined August 2015
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My forecast error for the Nobel Prize is lower when only one person wins. 😆
BREAKING NEWS
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the 2026 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford “for microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilisation.”
#NobelPrize
It is striking how the ARD DeutschlandTrend on approval of the government (see 👇) resembles the views of firm decision makers in the German Business Panel of the @trr_accounting.
Figure is taken from papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…
Good Morning from Germany, where public approval of the govt has hit a historic low. Acc to the latest ARD DeutschlandTrend survey, only 14% of respondents view the coalition govt’s performance positively. Since the ARD DeutschlandTrend began tracking govt satisfaction in 1997, numbers have been lower only 4 times: once in June 2010 under the CDU/FDP coalition (12%) and three times in 2003 and 2004 under the red-green govt (11% and 13%). The red-green coalition ultimately ended in 2005 w/early elections, and it seems many Germans are now leaning that way again: 54% support early elections, while 41% would prefer the coalition to continue until the next scheduled election in Sep2025. tagesschau.de/inland/deutsch…
We construct survey-based daily time series on
🔹 sales prices
🔹 dividends
🔹 fixed cost
🔹 R&D investments
🔹 firm survival
🔹 revenue
🔹 investment
🔹 policy satisfaction
🔹 profit
🔹 employment
based on the German Business Panel of the @trr_accounting
with @LukasHack_
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On my way to @iab_news to present joint work with Jan Kemper (@ZEW) on why causal inference with OLS fails for adaptive experiments when treatment effects are small and how to fix it.
Thanks for inviting me @M_Oberfichtner!
youtu.be/x-u2a8GKs-s?si=sknK…
I will be presenting some new research in Melbourne at MI. If you are around and would like to meet up, let's get in touch!
Die Umsätze sinken und mit ihnen die Stimmung in Unternehmen. Aktuelle Ergebnisse des GBP in vier Abbildungen.
Mehr Kontext: gbpanel.org/page/auswertung













