McLean, VA
Joined March 2015
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Replying to @CollinJHumphrey
Wages in blue collar are going to be massively deflationary
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Manufacturing boom coming … blue collar jobs will be back in fashion
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All the white collar people that look down on the blue collar people are soon going to realize they’re in the same boat as Big tech expands their GPU footprint
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Full port long I guess
JIM CRAMER WARNS INVESTORS NOT TO GET FOOLED BY THE LATEST AI STOCK RALLY - CNBC
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Very odd.. if there’s such high demand for this things .. and more demand than supply .. it certainly is odd that we see an explosion in compute sellers on X…
I have 72 B300s for sale. Three yr off taker signed (not IG), 25% down. Look for financing for the purchase. Nov close, Jan delivery. Colo signed. Rev share possible. LMK if interested.
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Replying to @srchvrs
@kirodotdev is still alive and well
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The cartel
SK HYNIX: EXPECTS DEMAND TO OUTPACE SUPPLY THROUGH 2030
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I'm so glad AI killed LeetCode-style coding interviews. I've talked to young AI talent, and most would simply skip companies that still use LeetCode interviews. I agree with Felix. Taste, empathy, principled thinking, business sense, and agency are what really matter.
The coding interview is dead, at least for my team at Anthropic. I've seen enough to know that it no longer provides signal. I removed it from loops this month. I have a spicy, optimistic take - I think there's an opportunity for junior engineers: felixrieseberg.com/hunger-be…
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Replying to @thdxr
This is something I am writing about for some time. We can have 120B tokens per living person on earth with DS 4.1 Flash 1017 quality models by end of 2027 in terms of generation capacity of 25 GW (250B rental) & Vera Rubin class servers. We can also have 1.2B tokens (1200 M) of Kimi 3.1 Pro quality per living person by end of 2027. Every person - kids, old people, people in Congo, Papua New Guina and so on..... Assuming there are only 1B serious users from 8B total, it is: - 960B tokes per person of DS4.1 class - 9.6B tokens per person of Kimi 3.1 class Yes, there would lot of slack in the system. But, this is a lot considering we are leaving another 25GW for training and post training (SemiAnalysis estimate is 50GW coming online by end of 2027). I don't think training needs nearly that much by end of 2027 considering Anthropic spend 15B till date on training compute. WDYT? This glut will however be very good for model labs. xitter.cf/bookwormengr/status/21…
Too cheap to meter: It is 0.025 cents (not dollars) per million tokens. Look at the insane performance numbers for Kimi 3.1 on Vera Rubin - 90$ worth (45M tokens * 2$ per million for input, assuming most tokens are input) of Kimi 3.1 tokens for 1$ of TCO at 100 tokens/sec interactivity. Insane margins. Lot of scope for players to cut prices. It is true: The more you buy, the more you save πŸ™‡β€β™€οΈ - With theoretically same uplift for DS v4.1 Flash on Vera Rubin from Grace Blackwell (1600M per dollar TCO), there will be nearly 4000M tokens per dollar of TCO. It is 0.025 cents (not dollars but cents) per million tokens. (Grace Blackwell chart below for comparision. Then look at SemiAnalysis chart). Explain me again how there is going to be 250B of inference GPU rental revenue next end year (25GW of inference ompute), and even higher GPU revenue year on year to justify 1T USD of per annum investment that will go on in perpetuity. It is nearly 30$ per living person of GPU compute (8 billion population) and 120B tokens per living person (babies, kids, old people included) at 0.00025$ generation cost for a million tokens of DS v4.1 quality. That is the level of consumption we need. Either we have a glut or everyone has AI waifu, BF, dad, mom whatever they desire. I don't see everyone having a personal robot before 2027. I don't know about you. Let me know if you disagree. These are relatively idealized scenarios. There would be lot of slack in the system and generation may be few tens of billions per living person, but even then it is a lot!!!
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Replying to @thdxr @tejasybhakta
agents are top 5 and almost all the volume
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This is really interesting. All of OpenRouter's Deepseek demand (roughly 30% of total OR token traffic) could be satisfied by 5-10 GB300 NVL72 racks. Even if that 10x over the next year, it's 50-100 racks. NVIDIA is shipping 90k racks next year? What am I missing?
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Replying to @chontang
You aren’t missing anything. We’ve innovated ourselves into a supply glut.
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πŸ›° Great news! Ukraine has launched its first satellite for its own communications network Himera, together with Denmark's GomSpace, has launched the Obria Nano satellite into orbit. With its help, Ukraine will be able to develop its own communications infrastructure, relying less on foreign satellite systems. The first test satellite of Ukraine's future sovereign satellite communications network is already undergoing testing.
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i just don't see where the demand for this is today is there all this hidden deepseek usage that we're not seeing? whenever we talk to providers it's clear all of their other customers are 100x smaller
Gavin Baker Believes Demand Will Solve Neocloud Financing Issues "An open-source model, DeepSeek, said that they are monetizing at $38 per GPU hour. Last time I checked, I hadn't heard of anybody renting GPUs anywhere near that high. So maybe this explains why Blackwell prices have been up 17 days in a row." Jensen Huang: "Yeah." $NBIS $IREN $CRWV
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Replying to @rickye26
this is tiny. it can fit on a single rack
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we served 6.82T on a single GB300 rack in one day a few days ago
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This app is cooked
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