Researcher @EpochAIResearch

Toronto, Canada
Joined January 2022
How do Chinese AI firms make money? In a new report, @cherylwoooo and @ansonwhho identify five revenue sources and analyze how much each contributes. 🧵
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Really glad this is out! Came as a big shock to me when my colleagues pointed out this possibility
We discovered that US GDP statistics miss most of the value Nvidia adds to the US economy. As a result, GDP growth has been understated by ~0.3 percentage points over the last year.
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Introducing FrontierMath Tier 4: a benchmark of extremely challenging research-level math problems, designed to test the limits of AI’s reasoning capabilities.
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I strongly disagree with @lugaricano’s thread on explosive growth. While the thread raises important points, I think it fails to get to the core of the reasons to believe that explosive growth is plausible – allow me to explain!
1/@EpochAIResearch doubles down on preiction AI will drive 20%+ annual GDP growth. Economists remain skeptical. This is the defining debate of today: AI builders see infinite prosperity ahead. Economists see the same limits that constrained every technological revolution.🧵 1/13
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I do agree that often "progress works itself out of a job", baumol effects and human bottlenecks are important and can make explosive growth less likely (especially in the next few years)
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But I think that research on explosive growth has already provided strong counterarguments to the points that @lugaricano raises
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How do reasoning models solve hard math problems? We asked 14 mathematicians to review o3-mini-high’s raw, unsummarized reasoning traces on 29 FrontierMath problems. Here’s what they found:
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Our AI Supercomputers database is now live! Explore specs for 700+ training & inference clusters—compute, chip types, power draw, ownership, location, and more.
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Is GPQA Diamond tapped out? Recent top scores have clustered around 83%. Could the other 17% of questions be flawed? In this week’s Gradient Update, @GregHBurnham digs into this popular benchmark. His conclusion: reports of its demise are probably premature.
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Is AI already superhuman at FrontierMath? To answer this question, we ran a competition at MIT, pitting eight teams of mathematicians against o4-mini-medium. Result: o4-mini beat all but two teams. And while AIs aren't yet clearly superhuman, they probably will be soon.
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How likely is an intelligence explosion as forecast in AI 2027? Algorithmic advances that could drive an intelligence explosion may be bottlenecked by compute, according to new research from @noshpesoj and @uchicagoxlab described in this week’s Gradient Update. Here’s why:
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Where’s my ten-minute AGI? If AI systems are able to perform tasks at 1-hour time horizons, as @METR_Evals found, why hasn’t AI automated more tasks already? In a new Gradient Update, @ansonwhho argues this is due to three fundamental reasons.🧵
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Why have AI benchmark scores often felt disconnected from real-world usefulness? It wasn't just technical limitations to creating realistic benchmarks. Historically, predicting the real-world capabilities of AI systems simply wasn’t the main goal.🧵
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