Pre-NY Positioning pretty chill index flow yesterday, $QQQ finished around +$34m net calls with roughly +$10m concentrated in the Nov 715s. still some protection sitting underneath it though, 70k $VIX Feb 22 calls traded for ~$18.6m at the ask. event vol is the bigger thing going into NY, $MSFT pricing ~3.3%, $GOOGL ~3.8% and $AMZN ~4.1%

$BTC CME leveraged funds are still net short, but added longs/ covered shorts pretty aggressively last week, net short position now around 4.9k contracts. Spot ETFs starting this week positive too, +$110.3m so far entirely from $IBIT nothing huge yet, but positioning has moved a bit less defensive

$BTC boring NY session, OI is building while spot CVD has been positive through the range, mainly from buying on Binance. some spot selling on Coinbase but nothing major options leaned defensive through NY, around +$1.6m net puts bought while calls were net sold some of the bigger flow was further out too, including decent Dec 72k put buying while 90k Dec calls were sold front IV has cooled back off, but skew is still around +3%

$BTC Longs being forced closed off NY open, OI up with spot buying coming from coinbase ethereum:0xe0f63a424a4439cbe457d80e4f4b51ad25b2c56c and $BRENT up off the open, $NDX selling off interesting morning isn't it

Pre-NY Positioning $SPY / $QQQ / $IWM are all short gamma going into the new week, while positioning underneath is pretty mixed across single names. big week for macro too + if Anthropic's S1 comes out in 30 mins it's gonna be fun durable goods tomorrow, FOMC Wednesday, then GDP + PCE Thursday. big earnings mixed in as well with $MSFT / $GOOGL Wednesday and $AMZN Thursday. plenty of stuff on the calendar this week

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$BTC New Week Friday's move lower was mostly a long unwind, then spot kept bleeding through the weekend while OI stayed pretty flat not much leverage has rebuilt behind the move so far. options are still paying for downside into the week though, 25d skew around +3% with put IV well above calls

Pre-NY Positioning downside hedging picked up pretty broadly yesterday. $SPY / $QQQ both had net put buying, but it was more obvious underneath. $MU / $META / $AVGO / $AMD all saw pretty heavy put demand, while $NVDA had a lot of call selling too. still some upside flow mixed into $QQQ, but overall the tape leaned a lot more defensive

ge, happy friday again ladies some malbec per @capitalflows recommendation

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$BTC moved lower through NY with OI adding behind it, looks more like fresh shorts than another long unwind. front-end downside vol is properly bid again too, 25d skew around +4% with put IV well above calls into today's expiry. pretty different to a few days ago when the front end had basically stopped paying for downside. gm

update: $IBIT came through with another +$235m brings today to +$524.8m and the week to around +$1.07b net inflows so far

$BTC Spot ETF Flows +$289.8M today after yesterday's tiny +$23.2M inflow brings the week to around +$839.7M net so far $FBTC led today with +$212.7M

$BTC NY move higher had a decent amount of OI added behind it, but that has started unwinding through asia session binance spot CVD has rolled over pretty hard since the highs, while longs are getting taken out and shorts haven't really added much front-end downside vol is getting bid again too, 25d skew back around +2% with put IV above calls. just looks like spot selling into some late longs unwinding

Pre-NY Positioning yesterday's index flow wasn't overly defensive, $SPY was basically flat on puts with some net call buying. underneath it was a bit different though, $QQQ / $NVDA / $TSLA / $META all had decent net put buying. still some upside flow mixed in too, especially around $QQQ. so hedging is still getting added in pockets, but it isn't really broad risk-off positioning

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$BTC NY session move looked mostly like shorts getting squeezed, price +1.5% while OI dropped around $135m, with ~$42m in shorts liquidated. since the close OI is already rebuilding though, +1.3% while BTC is another ~0.5% higher. front-end vol has cooled right back off too. 1d IV around 27%, down ~10 points on the week, with skew basically flat / calls slightly bid now. one bigger hedge did show up further out, 300x Dec 82k puts bought against 300x 82k calls sold. so the near-term downside panic has mostly disappeared, but there is still some protection being carried further out

I think X is telling me not to get into a bullet game at 10am